PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, I'm still suprised how much polling has narrowed so quickly in this race. It seems like you have a large enough sample size of polls that it's not just noise, but at the same time there really hasn't been any sort of scandal or even large enoguh shift in the NPV to justify it. What's notable is since his high in September, Fetterman has lost a full 5 points of support and there's really no reason I can think of why he would've lost that much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Going forwards, I think people need to try to consider the ways both parties could see gains and collapses, and that "shifts" and "trends" do not inevitably favor one side till the end of time.

Most of these analysis expected all other factors to remain constant. In a polarized environment, there is always some group of people that is going to be alienated by the governing party and thus cause the 50-50 states to flip one way or the other on that basis. But barring a major break in the polarization or a shift to a different issues set, the geography doesn't change much, especially in the low growth states.

Thus explaining why states like PA and WI so rarely break for the winning candidate by more than five points (even during wave years), no?

Tbf, in 2018 Dems won several races/aggregates in both WI/PA by over 5% margins.

To me it feels like the Dem bases in both states is very solid (black voters, white liberals in suburbs and cities) that no matter what the GOP will have a hard time breaking into. On the flip side, we have still have recent examples of where Dems have been able to break into rural and working class communities winning a lot of Trump voters.


Wisconsin is the most obvious example of this. The 2 main vote gets are a heavily african american city and super liberal growing college town sort of city. Those areas are going to be under reactive to any national shifts.

[Aurelius]

Honestly, it's reminding me right now of WI-2016, with the differences being that Fetterman was never as strong a candidate as Russ Feingold, and Dr. Oz isn't the incumbent.

Except Johnson was seen as a heavy underdog all the way up to Election Day.

Eh, I remember hearing a lot about late Johnson momentum in the last two or three weeks.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I'm still suprised how much polling has narrowed so quickly in this race. It seems like you have a large enough sample size of polls that it's not just noise, but at the same time there really hasn't been any sort of scandal or even large enoguh shift in the NPV to justify it. What's notable is since his high in September, Fetterman has lost a full 5 points of support and there's really no reason I can think of why he would've lost that much.

There were a few more pollsters who normally push people than recently. When people are pushed, Fetterman has been closer to around 50.

But we were also getting Fetterman +2-3 polls over a month ago, with a few bigger ones in between. We're still gettin Fetterman +1-3 polls.

[wbrocks67]

Two things:
1) Why did Oz do no events today? 2 weeks before the election on a weekend and you're MIA?
2) Amy Klobuchar makes a whole lot more sense for John Fetterman in Chester County than whatever Oz is doing with Tom Cotton and then having... John Kennedy in Bucks.

https://twitter.com/njgavio/status/1583963053317816320

[jamestroll]

I feel much better about Fetterman than CCM.

CCM the emails from her campaign are absolutely panicking and insane. Also, Fetterman does have the advantage of a stronger Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Despite all that, i think voters can only tolerate so much. I will look deeper into it, but I could see Democratic candidates for Secretary of State winning NV and AZ even if the Dem Governor candidates lose.

I can look into more astrologically, but it is time consuming. My time is more productive text and phone banking.

[wbrocks67]

I feel much better about Fetterman than CCM.

CCM the emails from her campaign are absolutely panicking and insane. Also, Fetterman does have the advantage of a stronger Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Despite all that, i think voters can only tolerate so much. I will look deeper into it, but I could see Democratic candidates for Secretary of State winning NV and AZ even if the Dem Governor candidates lose.

I can look into more astrologically, but it is time consuming. My time is more productive text and phone banking.

That's every Democratic email I've ever got lol.

[jamestroll]

I feel much better about Fetterman than CCM.

CCM the emails from her campaign are absolutely panicking and insane. Also, Fetterman does have the advantage of a stronger Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Despite all that, i think voters can only tolerate so much. I will look deeper into it, but I could see Democratic candidates for Secretary of State winning NV and AZ even if the Dem Governor candidates lose.

I can look into more astrologically, but it is time consuming. My time is more productive text and phone banking.

That's every Democratic email I've ever got lol.

Nothing will ever beat Terry McAufflie's emails. lmao

[bagelman]

https://twitter.com/PetrosKas/status/1583159727248531457

lol

Completely agree with Fetterman here, but I'd be surprised if this line of attack doesn't backfire on the #woke crowd. Wouldn't be surprised if I'm falling for a joke here, it just seems so out of left field for the Joe Six-Pack who doesn't know that Oz is a raging Turkish nationalist.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Fetterman hasn't taken Oz on serious policy like economy, crime, and the border. There is a little bit of abortion he talks about but the problem is a lot of his attacks on Oz are not policy related. Oz is from NJ! Oz is an Cowboys fan! Oz killed puppies! Oz is a snakeoil salesman! (I'm surprised he hasn't used the latter that much.) What also helps Oz, is while he is wealthy, it is because he is a celebrity. There is a difference between being a TV star vs a venture hedge fund capitalist like McCormick - I think Fetterman might have had a better economic policy case against him than he does with Oz.

[bagelman]

Fetterman likely has several DNC campaign advisors subtly sabotaging his campaign. He needs to go on a last minute blitz on economics.

The fact is, Dr. Oz truly is a snake oil salesman and his election to the Senate is the worst case scenario for this year. If he wins I will lose faith in this country and I may refuse to vote for Joe Brandon.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Fetterman hasn't taken Oz on serious policy like economy, crime, and the border. There is a little bit of abortion he talks about but the problem is a lot of his attacks on Oz are not policy related. Oz is from NJ! Oz is an Cowboys fan! Oz killed puppies! Oz is a snakeoil salesman! (I'm surprised he hasn't used the latter that much.) What also helps Oz, is while he is wealthy, it is because he is a celebrity. There is a difference between being a TV star vs a venture hedge fund capitalist like McCormick - I think Fetterman might have had a better economic policy case against him than he does with Oz.

He does use that argument (Oz being a snake oil salesman), you just don't see it unless you live in-state. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

So Dr. Oz is going to win? Wow.

Pennsylvania is an embarrassing state. Truly.

[axiomsofdominion]

He does use that argument (Oz being a snake oil salesman), you just don't see it unless you live in-state. 

So many people blathering about him only running a Twitter campaign. Like yeah people who don't get PA tv market access don't see the actual campaign...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

He does use that argument (Oz being a snake oil salesman), you just don't see it unless you live in-state.  

So many people blathering about him only running a Twitter campaign. Like yeah people who don't get PA tv market access don't see the actual campaign...

I just meant it as if you don't live here and aren't constantly exposed to the TV (etc etc) ads, it's hard to get a super accurate depiction of how a candidate is spreading their influence.  Same as any other state

[ProgressiveModerate]

He does use that argument (Oz being a snake oil salesman), you just don't see it unless you live in-state.  

So many people blathering about him only running a Twitter campaign. Like yeah people who don't get PA tv market access don't see the actual campaign...

I just meant it as if you don't live here and aren't constantly exposed to the TV (etc etc) ads, it's hard to get a super accurate depiction of how a candidate is spreading their influence.  Same as any other state

In your honest opinion, who do you feel like has a better job at messaging with their ads? Also are there like general lurking “vibes” amongst the public? Here in NY for instance, Zeldin is doing a ton of ads on crime which I think have been relatively effective, and there generally doenst seem to be any enthusiasm for Hochul, she’ll prolly just win cause this in NY.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The fact that I would have donated to McCormick is proof he'd be doing far worse than Oz.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If McCormick was the nominee Fetterman would have likely just spammed Connecticut banker instead of NJ celebrity.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If McCormick was the nominee Fetterman would have likely just spammed Connecticut banker instead of NJ celebrity.

There were much stronger candidates who didn't run. The fact that in an state with 9 Republican congressmen, you end up with a previously failed candidate who implodes, followed by a TV doctor and a hedge fund manager tells you all you need to know about this cycle.

A lot of that is Trump's fault, or more specifically the fear of not getting his endorsement and being destroyed long term.

[US Politics Fanatic]

McCormick has said in the past "What's good for China is good for America" and he wanted to run in a rust belt state. What's dramatic is that he won western pennsylvania in the primary despite being the region of the state the most hurt by free trade. Many voters are not informed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

McCormick has said in the past "What's good for China is good for America" and he wanted to run in a rust belt state. What's dramatic is that he won western pennsylvania in the primary despite being the region of the state the most hurt by free trade. Many voters are not informed.

Well, McCormick was Romney 2.0 just waiting to happen, wasn't he?

[US Politics Fanatic]

McCormick has said in the past "What's good for China is good for America" and he wanted to run in a rust belt state. What's dramatic is that he won western pennsylvania in the primary despite being the region of the state the most hurt by free trade. Many voters are not informed.

Well, McCormick was Romney 2.0 just waiting to happen, wasn't he?

He backed Jeb Bush in the 2016 primary.

[wbrocks67]

I expect Fetterman to hit Oz on this if they keep doing well - Oz hasn't said a peep about the Phillies.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fetterman hasn't taken Oz on serious policy like economy, crime, and the border. There is a little bit of abortion he talks about but the problem is a lot of his attacks on Oz are not policy related. Oz is from NJ! Oz is an Cowboys fan! Oz killed puppies! Oz is a snakeoil salesman! (I'm surprised he hasn't used the latter that much.) What also helps Oz, is while he is wealthy, it is because he is a celebrity. There is a difference between being a TV star vs a venture hedge fund capitalist like McCormick - I think Fetterman might have had a better economic policy case against him than he does with Oz.

He does use that argument (Oz being a snake oil salesman), you just don't see it unless you live in-state. 

If you go to his Instagram (which is pretty well run), he uses it quite a bit but in different ways. Some try to paint Oz as a crooked not very good guy. Others try to paint him as naughty. Others try and paint him as a joke. And so on.

[xavier110]

Trump is ready to contest the PA results

Great piece on the ongoing coup attempt, vol 2, electric boogaloo. I think the general pop will figure out why Jan 6 was a big deal when we’re permanently dealing with this after each election and you see paramilitary forces and militia groups marching around the block wielding guns and Trump flags where you live

You cannot vote for these people, but it’s also not a problem you can vote away