PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

That Citizens for Sanity ad might be one of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever seen. 

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1583147129043681281

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

That Citizens for Sanity ad might be one of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever seen. 

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/citizens-for-sanity-tv-ads-republicans-20221016.html
Never heard of Citizens for Sanity before, but I came across this in the Google results.

[wbrocks67]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

That Citizens for Sanity ad might be one of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever seen. 

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/citizens-for-sanity-tv-ads-republicans-20221016.html
Never heard of Citizens for Sanity before, but I came across this in the Google results.

Yep, they are a dark money group founded by the worst of Trump remnants. Not very surprising, but gross and disturbing nonetheless. The commercials are most definitely some of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever witnessed. They were all over the Phillies games in the past week, and looks like they're still running. Apparently they've put quite a bit of money into the whole venture, because while I was driving through a few different highways today, I saw "FETTERMAN = OPEN BORDERS" billboards with just like a photo of a bunch of what looked like latinos at the border. I was able to read the bottom line of one of them, and what do you know... it was paid for by "Citizens for Sanity". There probably at least 3 or 4 of them that I passed.

[One Term Floridian]

BREAKING: Fetterman actually owns a suit and tie!

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1583137887163322376

KEEP THIS MAN WEARING A SUIT AND TIE FROM NOW TILL NOVEMBER

For real though not only does he look more "senatorial" but he also looks legit

[Person Man]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

That Citizens for Sanity ad might be one of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever seen. 

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/citizens-for-sanity-tv-ads-republicans-20221016.html
Never heard of Citizens for Sanity before, but I came across this in the Google results.

Yep, they are a dark money group founded by the worst of Trump remnants. Not very surprising, but gross and disturbing nonetheless. The commercials are most definitely some of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever witnessed. They were all over the Phillies games in the past week, and looks like they're still running. Apparently they've put quite a bit of money into the whole venture, because while I was driving through a few different highways today, I saw "FETTERMAN = OPEN BORDERS" billboards with just like a photo of a bunch of what looked like latinos at the border. I was able to read the bottom line of one of them, and what do you know... it was paid for by "Citizens for Sanity". There probably at least 3 or 4 of them that I passed.

I mean, at least they weren’t jumping up and down screaming the N-word, right?

[wbrocks67]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

That Citizens for Sanity ad might be one of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever seen. 

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/citizens-for-sanity-tv-ads-republicans-20221016.html
Never heard of Citizens for Sanity before, but I came across this in the Google results.

Yep, they are a dark money group founded by the worst of Trump remnants. Not very surprising, but gross and disturbing nonetheless. The commercials are most definitely some of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever witnessed. They were all over the Phillies games in the past week, and looks like they're still running. Apparently they've put quite a bit of money into the whole venture, because while I was driving through a few different highways today, I saw "FETTERMAN = OPEN BORDERS" billboards with just like a photo of a bunch of what looked like latinos at the border. I was able to read the bottom line of one of them, and what do you know... it was paid for by "Citizens for Sanity". There probably at least 3 or 4 of them that I passed.

I mean, at least they weren’t jumping up and down screaming the N-word, right?

I mean, this is probably the closest dog whistle you'll ever see in terms of a TV ad that doesn't actually say curse word or derogatory word.

[Crumpets]

Was in the gym earlier and finally got to witness the onslaught of ads (the channel was on CBS I believe)

IIRC:

1 anti Lisa Scheller

1 pro Lisa Scheller

2 anti Susan Wild

1 pro Chrissy Houlahan

2 pro John Fetterman (the one with him talking to the camera about family)

2 anti John Fetterman

1 of the "Citizens for Sanity" ads

1 anti Mastriano

None from Oz's actual campaign, so looks like SLF is taking care of him again this week

That Citizens for Sanity ad might be one of the most disgusting campaign ads I've ever seen. 

We've been getting those here in Washington and they play during sports games, so they have a wide reach. I had never heard of them before this cycle, but it seems like they must have deep pockets to get all these ad spots across the country.

[jd7171]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

Thanks for this. It's hard not to get optimistic about Fetterman's chances in these more red areas, especially given the enthusiasm that he seems to bring. From what I can tell, is Oz even doing anything in these areas?

I think there is definitely a case to be made right now regarding both - Fetterman seems to be taking Philly for granted a bit (still unhappy that there's only been 1 event here in the last month+), but Oz at the same time seems to be taking the red areas for granted too - assuming that just because they went for Trump by blood red margins that they'll turnout for him too. Which is certainly possible, but at the same time, you don't even have a GOP Governor campaign trying to GOTV for you at the same time. Oz has seemingly made more a concerted effort to peel away voters with these one-off events in Philly and other suburban counties.

At least on the signs front, it seems like Fetterman has enthusiasm in both red and blue counties. (signs don't vote, i know), but interesting that Oz seems to lack enthusiasm in signs in both red and blue counties on the opposite end.

Oz was in Johnstown on Monday talking with local leaders about drugs and crime. Which is a good topic for him because the area has a major issue with drugs. It plays well because alot of the drugs are brought in from Philly and Pittsburgh. Crime is definitely a problem in Johnstown. Oz has made a stop or two in Blair County, but the others, not sure.

[jd7171]

I was looking through election results on DRA and one race that stood out to me was the 2020 Auditor General Election which was pretty remarkably polarized despite being a relatively low-profile race. The Republican ultimately won the race by about 3 points.

What stoof out to me specifically was in that race, the Republican actually outperformed Trump in rural PA which so far has been quite unusual given that there really didn't seem to be any particularly weird dynamics in this race.

The reason I bring this up is because I kinda always assumed win or lose, Fetterman would probably do better than Biden in significant swaths of rural PA but now that I found another example, I am taking that as less of a given.

Does anyone know if there were specific circumstances that allowed the Republican to do this? Would Oz have the ability to outperform Trump in places like Luzurne and Cambria Counties?

I can make a stab at Cambria. I feel that Oz won't overperform Trump. He will at least get 65 percent where Trump got 68. Any boost Fetterman gets will be more of an anti-Oz vote because he's not from PA, not really a pro-Fetterman boost. Shapiro would be more likely to get a bigger boost and I feel he will get about 40 percent. The thing about this county is after it voted for Obama in 08, there should have been a warning sign for Dems when Romney won by 18 points here. Romney didn't really beat Mccain, it was more that a bunch of Obama voters didn't vote for either candidate. The county is in rough shape for Dems, perfect example is Wolf. Wolf won Cambria by 9 points in 14, but only got 42 percent in 18. Wolf wasn't controversial at this point.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why aren't people considering a Bradley Effect of sorts? In a state this close, you can't afford to lose much of your base. Even if 5% of Trump voters don't vote for Oz it could affect him.

[wbrocks67]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

Thanks for this. It's hard not to get optimistic about Fetterman's chances in these more red areas, especially given the enthusiasm that he seems to bring. From what I can tell, is Oz even doing anything in these areas?

I think there is definitely a case to be made right now regarding both - Fetterman seems to be taking Philly for granted a bit (still unhappy that there's only been 1 event here in the last month+), but Oz at the same time seems to be taking the red areas for granted too - assuming that just because they went for Trump by blood red margins that they'll turnout for him too. Which is certainly possible, but at the same time, you don't even have a GOP Governor campaign trying to GOTV for you at the same time. Oz has seemingly made more a concerted effort to peel away voters with these one-off events in Philly and other suburban counties.

At least on the signs front, it seems like Fetterman has enthusiasm in both red and blue counties. (signs don't vote, i know), but interesting that Oz seems to lack enthusiasm in signs in both red and blue counties on the opposite end.

Oz was in Johnstown on Monday talking with local leaders about drugs and crime. Which is a good topic for him because the area has a major issue with drugs. It plays well because alot of the drugs are brought in from Philly and Pittsburgh. Crime is definitely a problem in Johnstown. Oz has made a stop or two in Blair County, but the others, not sure.

I believe this was the event then in question in Johnstown:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1583141028839985154

[wbrocks67]

Oz on tape responding to the puppy allegations - not a great answer!

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1583417749484670976

[Person Man]

Oz on tape responding to the puppy allegations - not a great answer!

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1583417749484670976

He’s lucky he’s never a signed a document saying that as part of his user agreement, he has to be made into a part of a human centiPad.


I guess I can relate. I’m kind of lazy. But FFS, he’s rich. He could’ve just hired a lawyer or something.

[Crumpets]

Some big developments among inter-dimensional entity voters.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Oz on tape responding to the puppy allegations - not a great answer!

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1583417749484670976

[wbrocks67]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

[wbrocks67]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Fetterman is still going to overwhelmingly win the black vote, but Oz's campaign has been trying to take advantage of the jogging incident against him. And I've read reports that the Fetterman campaign was concerned about black turnout in Philadelphia specifically.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Oz on tape responding to the puppy allegations - not a great answer!

I wanna see the crosstabs on those happiness numbers!

[Orwell]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Paying extra attention to the African-American vote is important for PA Dems, it's no harm done if it encourages extra turnout. Especially when you look at the $$$ Fetterman has raised.

[wbrocks67]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Paying extra attention to the African-American vote is important for PA Dems, it's no harm done if it encourages extra turnout. Especially when you look at the $$$ Fetterman has raised.

Right, which is my point. Any PA dem should be doing this - running ads on stations that cater to black audiences. That's not proof that Fetterman is "struggling" with them. Obama doing ads on there is probably way more effective for Fetterman than him coming to do a rally.

[wbrocks67]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Fetterman is still going to overwhelmingly win the black vote, but Oz's campaign has been trying to take advantage of the jogging incident against him. And I've read reports that the Fetterman campaign was concerned about black turnout in Philadelphia specifically.

That's not proof, though. That's what one campaign is doing. If you're going to say something so concretely, please back up with facts and evidence. I'm very open to what you're trying to say, but just back it up. Do you have those reports?