PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347618307403362307

imo fetterman wins greene by 40 but falls short of 35% in chester

don’t be a d hack, fetterman’s ceiling in chester is 10%, he’d also lose montgomery, but he probably cracks 55% in luzerne

just imo

Fetterman's floor in Lackawanna is 99.99%.

 imo tbh (atlas colors)

he's not winning Tioga County?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Not taking a very firm stance either way on Kenyatta at the moment, but it's important to note Obama-tier figures only come once in a generation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess this dude getting the GOP nomination would be great news for Fetterman. The GOP doesn't even try anymore. Past elections have shown that Trumpist candidates without Trump on the ballot don't fare well with swing voters.

Just ask Mr. "Trump before Trump was Trump" how he won over Conor Lamb. Oh wait, he lost.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1397199129915297794?s=21

good. Help keep that seat

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I really hope that people here don't dismiss this as "Who Cares?" and "Nothingburger". There are a lot of things that can be overlooked, but domestic abuse is not one of them.

I think it's absolutely disqualifying, but I doubt enough Pennsylvania voters feel the same way.

lmao like clockwork

Pavlov rang a bell!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which Senate seat would he be running for?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which Senate seat would he be running for?

Pennsylvania.

Ok, I could see him running justifying a ratings change. Dr. Oz would have a good chance at really bringing in the star power that could swing votes here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which Senate seat would he be running for?

Pennsylvania.

Ok, I could see him running justifying a ratings change. Dr. Oz would have a good chance at really bringing in the star power that could swing votes here.

He could be a strong candidate, but I've literally never heard of what his political views are, apart from some extremely vague statements about his love for Teddy Roosevelt from 15-20 years ago.

I wonder about what kind of campaign he'd run.

I do as well. Dr. Oz as a GOP senate candidate would be something to watch for sure.
I'd guess he'd have a huge amount of leeway to decide what tack he'd adopt, as long as he has enough red meat in there to keep conservative base voters on side. But I'm not a GOPer and I may as well be throwing darts in the dark.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which Senate seat would he be running for?

The national one. I think you misunderstood the thread to mean he's running for the Pennsylvania Senate, but I believe he's running for Toomey's seat in the US Senate.

I was asking the state. I knew it was for US Senate. I don't think Dr. Oz would waste his time running for the state senate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

His initial pitch seems strong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does he mean by "telling the truth about Covid"?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He's using his show's website as his campaign site.

https://doctoroz.com/

That issues page is some of the most embarrassing sh**t I've ever read. This is especially egregious:

RESTORE OUR FAITH
Dr. Oz has given back – he founded HealthCorps which provides health education and mentoring to underserved communities. Unlike politicians who talk a big game about helping our communities and restoring the “middle layers” of society – Dr. Oz has spent his life doing his part to serve his country. Dr. Oz also believes that we need to expand the role of religious institutions, non-profits, and community groups in providing support for stronger families and neighborhoods. That’s how we combat our underlying emotional sickness that leads to Opioid addiction and isolation.

I wonder why he doesn't mention his own faith...

It'll be hilarious if the first Muslim senator is a Republican, tbh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans these days despise Democrats more than they despise Muslims. If they identify Dr. Oz as a guy who can defend the seat well from Democrats, they will vote for him. Muslim or not.
Dr. Oz isn't even necessarily very "Muslim" branded though. I didn't even know his first name until now, and he's campaigning on universalistic themes. He should be fine, provided he stays on message and is able to convince R primary voters he is their best bet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is the front runner at this point? Oz seems like he would be a fine candidate, at least better than any of the Trumpy crazies, if not for the carpetbagging. Who knows what the penalty for that will be. It might not matter at all in the end.

It's hard to imagine hopping from NJ to PA would hurt as much as, say, hopping from MD to MT (see: MT-SEN 2018). Carpetbagging doesn't seem to have as much downside as it used to, anyway.
But we don't know for sure how much it'll impact this race until later.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Don't forget, you're here forever.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I know so many people have made this joke, but as a New Jerseyan, I am honored that Pennsylvania wants to give us an extra Senator, at their expense.

If Pennsylvania can have a third senator for almost forty years, I don't see why New Jersey can't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arkoosh officially out:
https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1489626089240633353

Who's the likeliest beneficiary from this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arkoosh officially out:
https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1489626089240633353

Who's the likeliest beneficiary from this?

Kenyatta most likely, since she was bound to pry off some of his support from the Philly collar counties. Pennsylvanians vote very geographically in our primaries. However, she wasn't really enjoying much support to begin with so the benefit would be minimal anyway.

Ah. Thanks for the rundown.
Gun to head, if you have to guess the chance Kenyetta wins this, what was it before these news, and after?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

Oz possibly getting elected is the closest equivalent we'd have to Trump getting elected in 2016 in quite a while. Media personality with high name rec+faces range of intra-party opponents+defeats them+wins general narrowly against an experienced opponent who has run in multiple elections before (this election is likely to be close either way). Sure, it would be a Senate race and not a presidential one, but the parallels would still be strong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

Oz possibly getting elected is the closest equivalent we'd have to Trump getting elected in 2016 in quite a while. Media personality with high name rec+faces range of intra-party opponents+defeats them+wins general narrowly against an experienced opponent who has run in multiple elections before (this election is likely to be close either way). Sure, it would be a Senate race and not a presidential one, but the parallels would still be strong.

Definitely. Also his primary opponent/s (McCormick) being backed by the typical "right-wing" of the party despite being much less populist on many issues (immigration, culture war stuff,  trade).
The only difference of course is that Oz isn't leading polls rn.

The GOP base, perhaps especially so now, cares more about "who will fight for you" than "x and y stances on Z issue". These are indeed related but are far from synonymous.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's dubious and questionable to make GE predictions off basis of primary turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

What does Carville have anything to do with this? It seems he lives rent free in your head. Anyways while I supported Lamb too much energy was spent over this race for second place.

Carville not uncommonly has nuggets of wisdom and all, but in retrospect it's hard to see how Fetterman could have been stopped. The guy beat Lamb in the primary basically 2-to-1. Doesn't matter if Fetterman is flawed (not saying he is or isn't), but it wouldn't matter either way, if there was no one able to beat him also running.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was always wondering why the DSCC didn't jump in and try to really boost Lamb, but after seeing Fetterman obliterate Lamb tonight it's obvious it wouldn't have changed the outcome, it just would have been closer

[...]
Carville not uncommonly has nuggets of wisdom and all, but in retrospect it's hard to see how Fetterman could have been stopped. The guy beat Lamb in the primary basically 2-to-1. Doesn't matter if Fetterman is flawed (not saying he is or isn't), but it wouldn't matter either way, if there was no one able to beat him also running.

In past election cycles, the DSCC would have coronated a candidate very early on in the primary campaign, and almost all of those candidates went on to win their respective primary contests. This year, they evidently decided to refrain from doing that for reasons I'm not aware of, but I consider that a good thing, since most of the DSCC's past coronated candidates ended up falling short in their respective general elections. [Yes, I do believe that Lamb (or, for that matter, any other candidate the DSCC decided to endorse) would likely have won if the DSCC decided to endorse him - just look at how the last Democratic primary for this seat played out: the DSCC-endorsed candidate came from behind to win the primary in a landslide.]

Yeah, it was probably a worthy experiment.
We shall see if Fetterman wins in November.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LOL. Fetterman for Twitter Troll in Chief.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547683652791717891

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

Fetterman's social media game has been top-notch.