PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

PA-07 imo prolly tips with the state on the Senate level for the reasons I stated in another thread. It generally seems like it has a little bit of a lot of different types of communities.

Crowd size is very anecdotal though and also Montgomery County has like 800k people so a large crowd size doesn't mean much. In this case, even signs might be a better measurement of enthusiam given how most of Montgomery County are single-family homes.

And yes, I don't think Oz will do particularly well in Philly suburbs, but I also think Trump was uniquely toxic as we have not seen a Republican do worse than him in Philly suburbs other than the few that got blown out statewide in 2018. Like I could def see Oz getting close to 40% in MontoCo, but historically that's still pretty bad.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

PA-07 imo prolly tips with the state on the Senate level for the reasons I stated in another thread. It generally seems like it has a little bit of a lot of different types of communities.

Crowd size is very anecdotal though and also Montgomery County has like 800k people so a large crowd size doesn't mean much. In this case, even signs might be a better measurement of enthusiam given how most of Montgomery County are single-family homes.

And yes, I don't think Oz will do particularly well in Philly suburbs, but I also think Trump was uniquely toxic as we have not seen a Republican do worse than him in Philly suburbs other than the few that got blown out statewide in 2018. Like I could def see Oz getting close to 40% in MontoCo, but historically that's still pretty bad.

IDK, I would be surprised if he cracks 40% in Montco. Even Kathy Barnette, who put on a facade in 2020, barely got 40%. I don't think Oz will do as bad as Scott Wagner though, who got historically terrible portions in 2018 (31-32% i think), but something like 62-35, or close to Biden's 2020 margin wouldn't surprise me. But I guess we'll see.

I will say that back where I'm from (a more swingier area of PA-04 that has been slightly more Dem lately overall, but will still vote for Rs), I have yet to see any Oz/Mastriano signs. Even some of the folks who have put up signs for the local state senate/house candidates have not put them up, and houses who I know for a fact put up GOP signs in 2018 and 2020 have put up nothing.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/njgavio/status/1582881005513236480

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

PA-07 imo prolly tips with the state on the Senate level for the reasons I stated in another thread. It generally seems like it has a little bit of a lot of different types of communities.

Crowd size is very anecdotal though and also Montgomery County has like 800k people so a large crowd size doesn't mean much. In this case, even signs might be a better measurement of enthusiam given how most of Montgomery County are single-family homes.

And yes, I don't think Oz will do particularly well in Philly suburbs, but I also think Trump was uniquely toxic as we have not seen a Republican do worse than him in Philly suburbs other than the few that got blown out statewide in 2018. Like I could def see Oz getting close to 40% in MontoCo, but historically that's still pretty bad.

IDK, I would be surprised if he cracks 40% in Montco. Even Kathy Barnette, who put on a facade in 2020, barely got 40%. I don't think Oz will do as bad as Scott Wagner though, who got historically terrible portions in 2018 (31-32% i think), but something like 62-35, or close to Biden's 2020 margin wouldn't surprise me. But I guess we'll see.

I will say that back where I'm from (a more swingier area of PA-04 that has been slightly more Dem lately overall, but will still vote for Rs), I have yet to see any Oz/Mastriano signs. Even some of the folks who have put up signs for the local state senate/house candidates have not put them up, and houses who I know for a fact put up GOP signs in 2018 and 2020 have put up nothing.

That's interesting.

One thing that's always been interesting to me was MontCo "only" swinging 5 points to Biden in 2020. Based on more national swings, it seems like the kind of place you'd expect to swing by more like 7-9 points in Biden's favour, so idk if that's related to anything here but def and interesting place.

MontCo and Philly suburbs generally seem to have been blue leaning for quite a while unlike many others so perahps there was just less room for Dems to gain in 2020, but idk. Lowkey, MontCo gives me the same vibes as some of the whiter liberal DC suburbs.

[kwabbit]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

Probably Bucks? The intersection of closer to NJ and more affluent is good for Oz. Mid-Bucks might have the greatest intersection of those two qualities. Oz should do decent in the Lehigh Valley, the Philly Collars, and Monroe County compared to Trump. Probably Philly too, but that might be more of a function of Fetterman.

Fetterman probably does best compared to Biden in ancestrally Dem areas of Western PA. Cambria, Huntingdon, Indiana Counties; the more working class areas of the Pittsburgh metro. Not Allegheny County itself though, which has actually trended to left during the Trump era.

[wbrocks67]

The irony of this clip is that despite what some people may want to say, abortion is a major issue this election - and it is top of my mind for some people.

Both of these voters - D and R, both said abortion (in different ways, she said reproductive rights, and he said 'pro-life') were either the biggest issue or 1 of 2 biggest issues this election

https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/1582880700520628225

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

PA-07 imo prolly tips with the state on the Senate level for the reasons I stated in another thread. It generally seems like it has a little bit of a lot of different types of communities.

Crowd size is very anecdotal though and also Montgomery County has like 800k people so a large crowd size doesn't mean much. In this case, even signs might be a better measurement of enthusiam given how most of Montgomery County are single-family homes.

And yes, I don't think Oz will do particularly well in Philly suburbs, but I also think Trump was uniquely toxic as we have not seen a Republican do worse than him in Philly suburbs other than the few that got blown out statewide in 2018. Like I could def see Oz getting close to 40% in MontoCo, but historically that's still pretty bad.

IDK, I would be surprised if he cracks 40% in Montco. Even Kathy Barnette, who put on a facade in 2020, barely got 40%. I don't think Oz will do as bad as Scott Wagner though, who got historically terrible portions in 2018 (31-32% i think), but something like 62-35, or close to Biden's 2020 margin wouldn't surprise me. But I guess we'll see.

I will say that back where I'm from (a more swingier area of PA-04 that has been slightly more Dem lately overall, but will still vote for Rs), I have yet to see any Oz/Mastriano signs. Even some of the folks who have put up signs for the local state senate/house candidates have not put them up, and houses who I know for a fact put up GOP signs in 2018 and 2020 have put up nothing.

That's interesting.

One thing that's always been interesting to me was MontCo "only" swinging 5 points to Biden in 2020. Based on more national swings, it seems like the kind of place you'd expect to swing by more like 7-9 points in Biden's favour, so idk if that's related to anything here but def and interesting place.

MontCo and Philly suburbs generally seem to have been blue leaning for quite a while unlike many others so perahps there was just less room for Dems to gain in 2020, but idk. Lowkey, MontCo gives me the same vibes as some of the whiter liberal DC suburbs.

Yeah, the thing with Montco is that it still has some sprawling red areas, so while it has gone blue pretty damn fast, it gets a tiny bit held back because there is still a few rural-ish areas on the borders. It will be interesting to see where it goes though; with that being said, the county continues to get more diverse and attract more and more college+ folks.

With that being said as well though, given its history, while it has gotten bluer, you still do have some of those RINOs who are disgusted with Trump and generally vote blue, but who may be open to voting for the "right" Republican given the situation.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

Probably Bucks? The intersection of closer to NJ and more affluent is good for Oz. Mid-Bucks might have the greatest intersection of those two qualities. Oz should do decent in the Lehigh Valley, the Philly Collars, and Monroe County compared to Trump. Probably Philly too, but that might be more of a function of Fetterman.

Fetterman probably does best compared to Biden in ancestrally Dem areas of Western PA. Cambria, Huntingdon, Indiana Counties; the more working class areas of the Pittsburgh metro. Not Allegheny County itself though, which has actually trended to left during the Trump era.

I was gonna say, I actually think Allegheny may trend even more left this election, especially given Fetterman is from the area. I could also see a situation where Fetterman gets better #s in places like Lackawanna and Erie. Usually Dems do way better down ballot compared to federal, but I think Fetterman could be the one to strengthen those #s a bit.

I could see Oz doing better than Trump in Bucks. Oz is more extreme than Fitzpatrick, but just look at the area - they're prime to pick someone who is not as toxic of an R as say, Trump.

I could see Oz playing better in Bucks than in the Poconos, though.

Chester and Delco, I don't see much chance for Oz - they are exactly the type of places that are either continuing to zoom left or (Delco) could see right thru Oz's facade.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Bucks is a county of contrasts.  You have progressive urban-ish areas and then places where it looks like the Bible Belt (hella churches and Trump signs).  

So it's tough to say how it will trend this cycle (or is it swing?).  I'm pretty confident that Chester will stay with the Democrats though.  I know that the sign game isn't science, but I've been seeing a lot of Fetterman signs in places that used to be Republican-central (white wealthy suburbs).  

[wbrocks67]

Bucks is a county of contrasts.  You have progressive urban-ish areas and then places where it looks like the Bible Belt (hella churches and Trump signs).  

So it's tough to say how it will trend this cycle (or is it swing?).  I'm pretty confident that Chester will stay with the Democrats though.  I know that the sign game isn't science, but I've been seeing a lot of Fetterman signs in places that used to be Republican-central (white wealthy suburbs).  

It doesn't hurt either that Houlahan is a star in Chester County too, and her opponent is literally a nobody again this time around.

[kwabbit]

Honestly, anyone feel like we'll get a map that basically falls between the 2020 Pres and 2016 Senate maps? Oz obviously isn't winning Chester County, but trends tend to lag, plus Oz seems to be decent for suburban communities but toxic for working class areas (for a Republican).

I've basically said this since day 1 but this is pretty much a true tossup, perhaps with a slight Fetterman edge.

Yeah the maps are going to be fascinating. Fetterman could very well have strength in both rural communities but also suburban areas (if that PA-07 poll is any indication). His biggest rally yet was in Montgomery County, too, so it's hard to imagine that suburbs will be hard for him.

Unless Oz does slightly better in the suburbs, it's hard to imagine a "good" area for Oz based on his personality and his campaign.

Probably Bucks? The intersection of closer to NJ and more affluent is good for Oz. Mid-Bucks might have the greatest intersection of those two qualities. Oz should do decent in the Lehigh Valley, the Philly Collars, and Monroe County compared to Trump. Probably Philly too, but that might be more of a function of Fetterman.

Fetterman probably does best compared to Biden in ancestrally Dem areas of Western PA. Cambria, Huntingdon, Indiana Counties; the more working class areas of the Pittsburgh metro. Not Allegheny County itself though, which has actually trended to left during the Trump era.

I was gonna say, I actually think Allegheny may trend even more left this election, especially given Fetterman is from the area. I could also see a situation where Fetterman gets better #s in places like Lackawanna and Erie. Usually Dems do way better down ballot compared to federal, but I think Fetterman could be the one to strengthen those #s a bit.

I could see Oz doing better than Trump in Bucks. Oz is more extreme than Fitzpatrick, but just look at the area - they're prime to pick someone who is not as toxic of an R as say, Trump.

I could see Oz playing better in Bucks than in the Poconos, though.

Chester and Delco, I don't see much chance for Oz - they are exactly the type of places that are either continuing to zoom left or (Delco) could see right thru Oz's facade.

I think Allegheny will stay 19pts to the left of the state or whatever it was in 2020. Fetterman will improve in a lot of the county, but a lot of Allegheny is upscale.

For Oz, he's of course not going to win Chester, Delco, or MontCo. However, reaching Clinton-Trump margins would be great for him. If he wins he's obviously going to have to improve in some counties. Even if it's Fetterman +3 he'll do better than Trump 2020 in some counties.

[It’s so Joever]

Bucks is a county of contrasts.  You have progressive urban-ish areas and then places where it looks like the Bible Belt (hella churches and Trump signs).  

So it's tough to say how it will trend this cycle (or is it swing?).  I'm pretty confident that Chester will stay with the Democrats though.  I know that the sign game isn't science, but I've been seeing a lot of Fetterman signs in places that used to be Republican-central (white wealthy suburbs).  

Bucks is the Florida of Pennsylvania?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I certainly wish I shared wbrocks's optimism here. Would make it a hell of a lot easier on my blood pressure.

(Not meaning it as a shot at him, obviously. He's grown on me since the general.)

[Calthrina950]

I certainly wish I shared wbrocks's optimism here. Would make it a hell of a lot easier on my blood pressure.

He was this optimistic about Democratic chances in 2020 as well, if I recall. He seems to believe that Democrats are going to sweep the competitive races and outperform the polls on Election Day.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I certainly wish I shared wbrocks's optimism here. Would make it a hell of a lot easier on my blood pressure.

I know this was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but seriously folks, it's worth a reminder: if the poll-watching and forum-posting is affecting your everyday mood (and certainly your blood pressure): log off.  Easier said than done considering what we do here, but it's okay to take a break. 

[Senator Incitatus]

Bucks is a county of contrasts.

The exports of Bucks County are numerous in amount.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Bucks is a county of contrasts.

The exports of Bucks County are numerous in amount.

I hear they export corn.  Or "maize".  

That technique got me through AP Lit. 

"Moby Dick was a book about a whale.  The whale was angry because of whaling.  Whaling is still legal in Japan.  Thank you."

[It’s so Joever]

I certainly wish I shared wbrocks's optimism here. Would make it a hell of a lot easier on my blood pressure.

See that’s why you should join the doomer side. We have cookies and depression.

[Senator Incitatus]

Bucks is a county of contrasts.

The exports of Bucks County are numerous in amount.

I hear they export corn.  Or "maize". 

Another famous Buck is Buck Rogers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I certainly wish I shared wbrocks's optimism here. Would make it a hell of a lot easier on my blood pressure.

See that’s why you should join the doomer side. We have cookies and depression.

I don't think the cookies make up for the feeling of impending doom, although they probably help.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do our resident PA members think? Is "probably Fetterman but Oz has gained a bit of ground" still the consensus?

"Fetterman has a slight edge but don't be shocked if Oz pulls off the upset."

How are you leaning for Senate? You’ve indicated that you support Shapiro over Mastriano but have been relatively quiet on Senate. Do you like puppies, doctors, crudités, and hoodies?

No lean.  And that's not me being sassy, I am about as neutral on this race as I ever have been.

P.S. love puppies, doctors are alright, crudi-what?, and hoodies+leggings are my day-off jam. 

Interesting. I def feel like this is one of those cases of character v policy. In terms of character, you seem to have more in common with Fetterman (hoodies, puppies, ect) but in terms of actual policy you may be a bit more generic moderate R hence Oz

Honestly it may not be until the debate or even right before election day that I come to a decision.

I think what’s unique about Senate is that the seat is only up every 6 years, so when one votes they have to factor both short term messaging and long term political implications.

For House, you can just vote someone out next cycle if you’re unhappy. For Governor you can vote in an unfavorable legislature/row offices in some cases. But you’re stuck with that Senator for 6 years.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1582754897639837696

[politicallefty]

Did I miss the election or something? If not, it seems like a lot of doomers and trolls are present. I would recommend putting them on ignore for the sanity of all. As always, the green avatars tend to be the worst.