PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[cg41386]

This is giving VA-Gov white supremacist allegations vibes.

CALLED IT! Oz win incoming.

Huh? Are you lost?

[soundchaser]

Oh boy, we're in the season where I just stay home on my days off from my residency awaiting those glorious polls.  

I miss those NYT/Siena polls form 2018 where you could watch the responses live. I definitely had those running on my phone while I was supposed to be working a couple of times.

Genuinely the peak of polling as an art.

[Senator Incitatus]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man, which is definitely smart, but he needs to be going positive in the final stretch. The only thing really stopping him is his own personal negatives. He clearly has a low ceiling but should be doing everything he can to hit that ceiling.

Still not feeling this one.  Enough technicalities and complications that it makes Fetterman's claim look like a stretch.  Still, it's apparently not like defamation level false either, so maybe it won't tank either candidate and just nets out to nothing. 

Oz could probably get a defamation charge into court, if only for the political signal. Walker is attempting to do that on a much more dubious footing.

Still seems like the Fetterman campaign is running on the ridiculous idea that they can appeal to Trump voters by simply running a fat white man who is rude on Twitter.

[Brittain33]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

[Sestak]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

Yeah this seems a little dangerous when it actively contravenes the primary narrative that has been used to attack Fetterman as of late.

[Senator Spiral]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

Yeah this seems a little dangerous when it actively contravenes the primary narrative that has been used to attack Fetterman as of late.

Not if you cultivate the image of Fetterman as one of those violent thugs that he defends.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man, which is definitely smart, but he needs to be going positive in the final stretch. The only thing really stopping him is his own personal negatives. He clearly has a low ceiling but should be doing everything he can to hit that ceiling.

Still not feeling this one.  Enough technicalities and complications that it makes Fetterman's claim look like a stretch.  Still, it's apparently not like defamation level false either, so maybe it won't tank either candidate and just nets out to nothing. 

Oz could probably get a defamation charge into court, if only for the political signal. Walker is attempting to do that on a much more dubious footing.

Still seems like the Fetterman campaign is running on the ridiculous idea that they can appeal to Trump voters by simply running a fat white man who is rude on Twitter.

1) He’d be laughed out of court; a defamation suit would be completely frivolous and go nowhere. 

2) It’d draw a lot more media attention and if this gets picked up by national or even major state media, then Oz is probably finished

[wbrocks67]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

Yeah this seems a little dangerous when it actively contravenes the primary narrative that has been used to attack Fetterman as of late.

Not if you cultivate the image of Fetterman as one of those violent thugs that he defends.

... the violent thugs that were wrongly put in jail for decades and then rightfully got out?

[Senator Spiral]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

Yeah this seems a little dangerous when it actively contravenes the primary narrative that has been used to attack Fetterman as of late.

Not if you cultivate the image of Fetterman as one of those violent thugs that he defends.

... the violent thugs that were wrongly put in jail for decades and then rightfully got out?

I'm talking about perception here--and, as we know, perception is reality. This is a scenario where I see Fetterman's appearance as unfortunately ringing a certain message to the layperson with enough repetition.

[Senator Incitatus]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

I should actually amend my post; I didn't see what the nature of the campaign is going to be, and so could very well be much more narrowly targeted than television ads.

edit: I can't find anything new on Oz using the jogger story nor can I find the original post (tweet?) that claimed this, so disregard for now. Striking it from the original post.

[kwabbit]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

Yeah this seems a little dangerous when it actively contravenes the primary narrative that has been used to attack Fetterman as of late.

Depends where the ad is run. In the Philly market, it can depress Black turnout and scare educated Whites. It might even help Fetterman in the rest of PA though if it reinforces Fetterman’s image as a working class, not like the typical Democrat Everyman.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1577325529866420225?s=20&t=k2p4rXdq...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every poll has it Fetterman plus six and Shapiro plus nine it's the exact margin Casey won by 6 in 2012 and Corbett won by 9 in 2014 and in 2018 they both won by double digits Rs wasn't targeting PA they got MO, IN, FL and ND

Oz is DOA just like Masters Blake Masters is gonna lose 51/48, like McSally and if it's a blue wave Kelly will win by 6 52/46 if we win OH, UT and NC I am expecting to win WI, PA, OH, UT and NC because it's 17% black in all those states except UT and McMillan hasn't said whom he will caucus with so it's not yet a D takeover, and Dan Jones has it 3, you know 3 pts is nothing for Ds to overcome in Early vote and as far as Fetterman he will build up a substantial Early vote lead like McMillan, Ryan and Beasley

I said don't take everything literally take everything with a grain of salt just like Laxalt and Johnson lead we know it's a 303 blue wall map

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1577325529866420225?s=20&t=k2p4rXdq...

Thanks, Mr. Cook, but the Lief Political Report already moved this to toss-up weeks ago. No one's paying me $35 a month though!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Saw that Oz/NRSC will launch a series of ads highlighting Fetterman's assault of a black man,

They need to be careful this doesn’t backfire and earn Fetterman support from the Republican base voters in PA.

Yeah this seems a little dangerous when it actively contravenes the primary narrative that has been used to attack Fetterman as of late.

Depends where the ad is run. In the Philly market, it can depress Black turnout and scare educated Whites. It might even help Fetterman in the rest of PA though if it reinforces Fetterman’s image as a working class, not like the typical Democrat Everyman.

Scare educated whites is the key here. That's what it would do

[wbrocks67]

This is interesting - after being outraised in September, Dems have a $15M lead in October - as of now

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1577353447380238344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is there a third party candidate in this race? I think there is potential for them to do very well here

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a third party candidate in this race? I think there is potential for them to do very well here

Third, fourth, fifth, and sixth parties, plus two independent write-in candidates, per Ballotpedia.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is there a third party candidate in this race? I think there is potential for them to do very well here

Third, fourth, fifth, and sixth parties, plus two independent write-in candidates, per Ballotpedia.

Pennsylvania isn't quite Deep-South-level hostile to third party candidates, but I would still be surprised if they combine for anything more than 5% of the vote on a good day for them.

[wbrocks67]

Very excited for the "tightening!" narrative tomorrow when Monmouth goes from 49-39 last time to like 48-42 this time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inflation hasn't gotten any better and Gas prices are back high in California

[wbrocks67]

The Philadelphia Inqurier has picked up the puppy story.

Pretty much says as what we've been saying - Oz didn't kill any puppies *himself* but the facts show he was the leader of the research and studies, and he oversaw everything. His name as also attached starting in 2004 when Columbia had to pay its fine.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mehmet-oz-puppies-dog-animal-abuse-research-senate-20221004.html

[GALeftist]

Huh. Might make a difference after all. Not an awesome headline for Oz, to say the least.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Philadelphia Inqurier has picked up the puppy story.

Pretty much says as what we've been saying - Oz didn't kill any puppies *himself* but the facts show he was the leader of the research and studies, and he oversaw everything. His name as also attached starting in 2004 when Columbia had to pay its fine.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mehmet-oz-puppies-dog-animal-abuse-research-senate-20221004.html

No matter the nuances, if Fetterman is "soft on crime" for commuting the sentences for wrongfully convicted prisoners, then it's fair for Oz to be portrayed as a mad scientist who kills man's best friends with no remorse.

[Person Man]

The Philadelphia Inqurier has picked up the puppy story.

Pretty much says as what we've been saying - Oz didn't kill any puppies *himself* but the facts show he was the leader of the research and studies, and he oversaw everything. His name as also attached starting in 2004 when Columbia had to pay its fine.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mehmet-oz-puppies-dog-animal-abuse-research-senate-20221004.html

No matter the nuances, if Fetterman is "soft on crime" for commuting the sentences for wrongfully convicted prisoners, then it's fair for Oz to be portrayed as a mad scientist who kills man's best friends with no remorse.

The Ass is basically the Mengele and Frankenstein combined to dogs. Frankenstein is the doctor, not the monster. I still don't think everyone knows that.