PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[GALeftist]

I am honestly not convinced that Fetterman would be that strong, and his views are quite to the left, and if the GOP nominates someone like Fitzpatrick, I could easily see him struggle in the suburbs. We also don't know much about how viable Fetterman is statewide, but given he has been quite weak in the two primaries that he has ran in, I'm not even convinced he could win a primary. Especially if another western PA politician (such as Lamb) runs in that same primary.

He unseated an incumbent in his 2018 primary. That's a weak performance?

Also, there is a 0% chance the PAGOP nominates Fitzpatrick, and you guys are more than welcome to clown on me if I get proven wrong; he would immediately be tarred as a RINO and would not make it through the primaries. I truly hope that Lamb's recent antics have made him damaged goods, as well, but I can't be sure.

[GALeftist]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

[GALeftist]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

That's why I said disingenuous instead of wrong. You are correct that open seats have tended to go to the party not in the White House, but everything's true until it's not; until 2014 you wouldn't have needed to add the open caveat. Perhaps Ds are being overconfident, but that doesn't mean that any point made against Democrats is automatically a good one.

[GALeftist]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

That's why I said disingenuous instead of wrong. You are correct that open seats have tended to go to the party not in the White House, but everything's true until it's not; until 2014 you wouldn't have needed to add the open caveat. Perhaps Ds are being overconfident, but that doesn't mean that any point made against Democrats is automatically a good one.

I am restoring balance to the discussion after innumerable  declarative proclamations of D victory in PA based on crappy analysis itself. You look past all that and take issue with what I said but not the likes of Kanye/OC. Corbett being a crappy Governor and getting his clocked cleaned is not illustrative of anything that would help the Democrats in 2022. Rendell, Ridge and Casey Sr did a good job and were popular, Corbett tried to implement the Koch bros agenda and was a terrible salesmen for it in a state that isn't suited to that kind of Politics.

2014-2015 saw Philly suburbs reallign down ballot as  millennials have aged into becoming more reliable voters voting straight ticket D in place of their ticket splitting parents. That this happened before D strength in select places in the rest of the state did likewise for the Republicans in 2016 and 2020, and also expedited by Corbett's unpopularity is partially why Corbett lost and Ds picked up the Supreme Court in 2015.

OC is OC, vro. He's just vibing. I will concede, though, that Democrats are probably a tad overconfident about this race; the bench helps, but Democratic midterms are rarely good news. Tossup at this point, I'd guess.

[GALeftist]

Enthusiastically endorsed. Fetterman/Casey Jr. would be an amazing Senate delegation.

[GALeftist]

Likelihood of both Abbott and Costello winning?

[GALeftist]

Still with Fetterman. I wouldn't mind Cartwright, he seems really good as well, but a couple things swing it for me:

1. It doesn't seem like he actually is like uber-popular in the district, he won by a lot in 2016 but that election was much less polarized against some no-name underfunded opponent and he won by much less in 2020 (and I'm pretty sure his district voted for Biden anyway) EDIT: it appears I am not very smart and his district voted Trump after all
2. Even if he does have some unique appeal, I feel like keeping that seat in the House might also be important
3. I feel like the optics of a D candidate from Western PA are good

Fetterman seems no less strong than Cartwright, has been elected statewide (even if only as part of a gubernatorial ticket), and risks nothing if he loses, so I'm still on board.

[GALeftist]

Ah shoot, I don't know why I thought Biden won that district. In that case, like I said before, I think either one would be super. Sticking with Fetterman bc tall man make me smile but I'd be happy with either.

Have there been any whispers of a Cartwright candidacy?

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1358862149859311616

Just a wonderful candidate. Enthusiastically endorsed, obviously.

[GALeftist]

I went to college in Boston and socialized quite a bit with folks at Harvard, and I’m genuinely confused by this “Harvard makes you out of touch with working people” idea. Granted it was quite some time ago, but I found virtually all of them to be genuinely good and well-meaning people, many from modest backgrounds who viewed their place at Harvard as being a big deal for their families and a major reason why they believed their futures would be brighter than their pasts.

I’m sure there were plenty of trust-fund children, legacy admissions, and students outright bribed in, and I’m sure that the cost of education/student loan nonsense of today has changed some things, but it’s broadly generalistic and out of touch in its own right to suggest that a Harvard education makes one unable to understand the issues of working families.

Politics is about perception not reality, Fetterman can be framed as an elitest using things like his Harvard education and reliance on family funds. His politics is also pretty left-wing and leaves him vulnerable to whisper campaigns.

I want to rewind on this post again. LOL.

How the heck do you look at Fetterman and think Harvard-educated elitist? Most of politics, as you note, is optics and he just.... looks like a union dude. He physically is just so different from every other Senator. He does not give off any indication of being some trust fund baby.

PS. This is going to sound elitist of me, but he didn't go to Harvard for undergrad, so it's kind of whatever. The MPP isn't as susceptible to the bribe your way in vibes of undergrad.

Physical appearance don't matter, this is the same fallacy as republicans thinking their minority candidates will overperform with that demographics. His Harvard degrees is an opening the gop can use to frame him as a paternalist elitest faking a working class image to get elected

Tom Wolf went to Dartmouth and still won Luzerne. There doesn't seem to be a lot of empirical evidence to suggest that Ivy League = WWC hates and I think you'd be hard pressed to find someone who thinks Wolf is more working class than Fetterman

[GALeftist]

You all realise this man chassed down a black man in 2013 with a shotgun because he was jogging right?  Like why are you cheering him on?

You say this without acknowledging that a) he heard gun shots in the area, b) he saw a man running in the opposite direction wearing a face mask and goggles, and c) he never drew the shotgun or pointed it at the man. Without these details, it sounds like he hunts black people for sport, which is the opposite of the truth here.

You know there is also a video right?  which no gunshot can be heard.  And truthfully if that is your first reaction to grab a shotgun and chase someone down I just don't think I can trust you.

This is just not true. The man in question also says that he heard what sounded like gunshots but asserted they were bottle rockets. Also, I couldn't find a video of the incident, closest I could find was a story on local TV (which is where the victim said he heard bottle rockets).

My (unrequested) take: I doubt race was a part of it, it's clear from the interview that it's unlikely that Fetterman would have been able to see any of his skin since he had a mask on. Frankly, I'm more concerned that his response to this whole situation was to apprehend the guy himself rather than wait for the police. That said, I don't think that this is disqualifying or anything and it's certainly not the big scandal that KHive is making it out to be.

[GALeftist]

If y'all like Fetterman that's fine but you're trying wayyy to hard to make the jogger incident out to be nothing, when I know for a fact people wouldn't be if he was a republican. Private citizens shouldn't be acting like police, how many times have we seen that go wrong. You can argue that it's not disqualifying without defending the action.

I haven't seen anyone say that it's nothing ITT, and I'd agree that people should not pursue justice like this on their own, but I have seen others make implicit comparisons to the murder of Ahmaud Arbery which misses the point both of why what Fetterman did was problematic and what the tragedy of Arbery's death was.

[GALeftist]

I mean, people keep talking about how Fetterman is untested, but who are the other options? Besides Cartwright, who I think has probably proven himself at this point, none of the other candidates seem likely to significantly overperform among any demographic. I mean, I know Lamb won that race in 2018, but he couldn't even overperform Biden this past year, plus he's worse ideologically than Fetterman imo. Houlahan seems fine, but the Philly burbs are hardly a place where I'd imagine one candidate would drastically overperform generic D. Same goes for Boyle in Philly proper. In my view, unless Cartwright bites, Fetterman seems like the best candidate from an electability perspective; it risks nothing and also means that he might get those mythical Obama-Trump voters if the hype is real.

[GALeftist]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

Are you really going to tell me with a straight face that the first guy is more in touch with the average Pennsylvanian or whatever? Costello could win but it won't be because he successfully paints Fetterman as a coastal elitist lol

[GALeftist]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

This is just a small taste of whats coming, they'll destroy the man.

Millennial Moderate type beat

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1361267708214587395?s=20

Ugh. This bozo. Guess he's worried about getting drawn out.

I mean, he’d probably be a stronger candidate than Fetterman, so...

Even if a genie told me this was the case I really cannot handle another Sinema in the Senate atm.

[GALeftist]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

[GALeftist]

Still with Fetterman; I'm not opposed to Kenyatta, but the fact that he endorsed Biden so quickly doesn't sit right with me wrt devotion to progressive ideals. With that being said, I'm not sure which would win in a 1v1; obviously Fetterman is probably bigger outside of Philly, but SEPA is so huge in Dem primaries it might not matter. I sort of don't think it will be a 1v1, though, I have a feeling we'll be seeing more entries.

[GALeftist]

Cartwright is great imo, but he really is one of the most overrated politicians on this board. But I also feel like Lamb is way too hated on as well.

Also if progressives have a problem with Kenyatta, then they really don't know him or what he stands for. But I mean I've seen progressives complain about worse, so, I wouldn't put it past them

"Problem with" =/= preferring another candidate. This reminds me of the whole Bernie/Warren thing in 2020, it's fine to think one candidate is good (or at least second-best) and still prefer another candidate. From what I've seen of Kenyatta, he seems fine; he seems pretty progressive, he would obviously be a historic senator for a litany of reasons, and I'm confident he'd be an excellent senator. However, there might still be legitimate reasons to raise eyebrows. I'm not wild about using Medicare for All as a litmus test, but it is worth noting that his website skirts around mentioning the policy by name, and obviously he endorsed Biden very early on in the primary. These are relevant issues when you're voting for a senator from PA, and I don't think it's unreasonable for progressives to stick with a more progressive track record until/unless these issues are brought up.

[GALeftist]

>tfw non-zero possibility of Lamb joining Sinema and Manchin

[GALeftist]

>tfw non-zero possibility of Lamb joining Sinema and Manchin

I doubt it. There's a huge difference between being from a Biden state and being from the second most pro-Trump state in the country. Plus, wouldn't you rather have Senator Conor Lamb than Senator Sean Parnell or Doug Mastriano?

Yeah, but Sinema's from a Biden state and in a lot of ways she's worse than Manchin. Lamb would probably be fine, and I'd probably vote for him (if I were a Pennsylvanian – luckily Georgia won't have this problem) but I hope he loses the primary all the same.

[GALeftist]

Honestly, I'm still a little skeptical of Kenyatta for how vociferously he backed Biden in the primary. Biden was not running as anything close to a progressive, and for me it both calls into question Kenyatta's progressive bona fides and makes me worry that he'll continue to endorse centrists when in office.

[GALeftist]

ANOTHER WFP socialist who wants to defund the police.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1362569864297259010
Safe R.

Look, I’m the guy who called Nina Turner a radical socialist. But Kenyatta isn’t a radical socialist. He’s just a Warren Progressive type

He was a pretty ardent Biden supporter in the primary too

[GALeftist]

Fetterman is probably still the frontrunner with Lamb, but without him he was a prohibitive favorite since the Philly vote was getting split but not the western vote. I think Lamb has a greater chance of acting as a spoiler for western PA than actually winning, tbh.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1445441371066667009

Cool candidate PAGOP!