PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It’s Mehmet’s world and we just live in it.

Oz world! Oz world! Party time! Excellent!

In all seriousness its gonna f---ing blow when Fetterman loses in November off turnout differential alone and the consensus starts calling him damaged goods. Better not do him like Sestak.

Fetterman could beat Oz.  I wouldn’t call him the favorite but it’s not some unfathomable thing. 

Fetterman is indeed favored over Oz.

I was very much a doomer about November until the SCOTUS draft leak. Ever since then, I think... we still lose both Houses, but not AS bad, and Fetterman is absolutely favored against Oz, toss-up against McCormick.

Oz is a celebrity doofus and this guy running for Governor seems like a real mental case.  Could well be enough for Fetterman.

[Senator Incitatus]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

It’s Mehmet’s world and we just live in it.

Oz world! Oz world! Party time! Excellent!

In all seriousness its gonna f---ing blow when Fetterman loses in November off turnout differential alone and the consensus starts calling him damaged goods. Better not do him like Sestak.

Fetterman could beat Oz.  I wouldn’t call him the favorite but it’s not some unfathomable thing. 

Fetterman is indeed favored over Oz.

I was very much a doomer about November until the SCOTUS draft leak. Ever since then, I think... we still lose both Houses, but not AS bad, and Fetterman is absolutely favored against Oz, toss-up against McCormick.

Oz is a celebrity doofus and this guy running for Governor seems like a real mental case.  Could well be enough for Fetterman.

I find it hard to believe a serial outsourcer and carpetbagger will walk to the nomination.

[Alben Barkley]

Who would have thought that the Trump candidate is relying on a late midnight vote drop from the Philadelphia area and is benefitting from a constantly increasing amount of voters?

Even if Oz pulls it out by a nose, he will clearly lose most of the rural PA counties.

Which in itself calls into question many narratives about Trump and his support.

Oz will literally be saved by Philly and its suburbs if he manages to win this nomination, while the counties that actually voted for Trump rejected him decisively.

[DaleCooper]

Who would have thought that the Trump candidate is relying on a late midnight vote drop from the Philadelphia area and is benefitting from a constantly increasing amount of voters?

Trump's endorsements are overrated.

[BuckeyeNut]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

[Not Me, Us]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I think it's naive to think that the national GOP isn't going to support Mastriano. He's Trump's endorsed candidate and won the primary in a landslide, all the usual goons will line up behind him. Besides, fundraising isn't nearly as important as it used to be, especially for Republicans.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

They will likely contest it. Trump got 49% of the vote in the state and it is a red wave year. No party has won 3 consecutive terms to it since the 1950s. This doesn't mean it's going to flip, but Republicans aren't going to just let this race die because they have a controversial candidate.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm not saying that RGA won't contest PA-GOV. Instead, I'm simply saying that it won't commit to doing so.

They have pretty much said so themselves.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1526745273522847744?s=20&t=iXXQJoch_wrpG8...

Given the national lean of the cycle, that spending should be a given pretty much immediately. If RGA doesn't commit, that's a boon not just to Shapiro but also to Fetterman.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

[swf541]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

I live on the border of Mastriano's state senate district and noticed him throughout his so far short political career, please tell me what he has going for him besides the national environment, I'm open to changing my opinion but yeah what makes him a winnable candidate?

[UncleSam]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah the R turnout is higher than D with multiple candidates but that doesn't mean anything, Rs had multiple candidates in the race alot of Conservatives may simply stay home because Oz isn't a true conservative, Fettetman is favored over Oz and you gotta look at it, it's a primary not a GE and most D's stay home during a primary

[Hollywood]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

I live on the border of Mastriano's state senate district and noticed him throughout his so far short political career, please tell me what he has going for him besides the national environment, I'm open to changing my opinion but yeah what makes him a winnable candidate?

He's got a lot going for him.  More than that Bernie Democrat, Fetterman, whose campaign has mostly been focused on marijuana legalization, and anti-corporate progressive policy that has polled terribly since Biden stepped into office.  On the other hand,  Mastriano is a military expert that taught as War College Professor after his long career in the army (and NATO), and he's written papers on the socioeconomic and military strategies necessary for preventing and defending a Russian land invasion.  The man has advanced understanding of the logistical needs of energy resources like LNG, and has put forward an infrastructure plan to connect PA gas companies to East Coast ports for transport to Europe. Mastriano has had a life of substantive accomplishment.  

Fetterman is best known for being an unprofessional mayor that's best known for chasing a black man with a shotgun for 'some reason'.  Hmmm.  The Democrat Party blocked Bernie from the Presidential Nomination in 2020, because they knew that he'd lose a state like PA while over-performing in the primaries with hardline rhetoric.   I'm actually excited to see where this goes, because I've been money with my predictions of impending doom. 

[politicallefty]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding.

I really don't want to get into this argument, but for the sake of argument, it should narrow somewhat based solely on the percentages reporting. There should also be a number of mail ballots that have yet to be counted, which should also increase the Democratic votes share (I think the number mentioned was that over 90% of VBM ballots are Democratic ballots). I'd also note that both PA-Gov (R) and PA-Sen (R) were attracting considerable attention, particularly due to the competition in the latter. PA-Gov (D) was an uncontested race and PA-Sen (D) wasn't really competitive.

While I admit I haven't been following the PA-17 race, I feel it's worth noting that Democratic turnout is far exceeding Republican turnout (90k-67k). Neither primary appears particularly competitive, thought the district is only Biden+6.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's dubious and questionable to make GE predictions off basis of primary turnout.

[roxas11]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

You sound way more my optimistic about Pennsylvania than Republicans do at this point  lol

Maybe it's just me, but based on the reaction so far Republicans almost sound like they are writing off Mastriano which is surprising considering how good the political environment is for them this year

Even former trump adviser David Urban said on CNN that he thinks Mastriano has very little chance of winning against Josh Shapiro. This is shocking to me because normally David Urban always hypes up the Republicans chances of winning big, but when it comes to Pennsylvania not even he thinks Mastriano is going to win.

[NewYorkExpress]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

You sound way more my optimistic about Pennsylvania than Republicans do at this point  lol

Maybe it's just me, but based on the reaction so far Republicans almost sound like they are writing off Mastriano which is surprising considering how good the political environment is for them this year

Even former trump adviser David Urban said on CNN that he thinks Mastriano has very little chance of winning against Josh Shapiro. This is shocking to me because normally David Urban always hypes up the Republicans chances of winning big, but when it comes to Pennsylvania not even he thinks Mastriano is going to win.

If there truly is an R wave, it probably doesn't matter how horrible Mastriano is as a candidate. He's winning regardless, and the same with Oz against Fetterman.

[roxas11]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

You sound way more my optimistic about Pennsylvania than Republicans do at this point  lol

Maybe it's just me, but based on the reaction so far Republicans almost sound like they are writing off Mastriano which is surprising considering how good the political environment is for them this year

Even former trump adviser David Urban said on CNN that he thinks Mastriano has very little chance of winning against Josh Shapiro. This is shocking to me because normally David Urban always hypes up the Republicans chances of winning big, but when it comes to Pennsylvania not even he thinks Mastriano is going to win.

If there truly is an R wave, it probably doesn't matter how horrible Mastriano is as a candidate. He's winning regardless, and the same with Oz against Fetterman.

Honestly, that is what's so surprising to me about about some of the Republican reactions to Mastriano win.

for example, David Urban actually does believe there is going to be a red wave yet he still said this about Mastriano

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1526733598057017345

Based on these comments either he has seen private polling data that we all don't know about or he is severely underestimating Mastriano chances of winning in pennsylvania

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Blue no matter who! Thank you Mr. President!

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1526735610198863872?s=21&t=9etAu2aHVdz1t...

KHive in f***ing shambles

Is Khive supposed to be the new “the 2016 primaries were rigged” or something?  Doesn’t seem like it’s a thing that actually exists in any remotely meaningful form

[wbrocks67]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

First of all, anyone who actually knows about PA data knows what the registration statistics mean, and the whole thing about Rs climbing and Ds falling is expected to anyone who pays attention. PA is a 50/50 state. There are MANY dixiecrats who have been voting R for years now who are now finally making it official. That's why the registration keeps creeping ever so close to 50/50, because that would mean that it's actually at parity with where the station is. Democrats do not have a real +6-8 edge in PA, as we all know. So the registration is still misleading, even now when Dems have over a +500k lead.

Also, when comparing primary turnout, well duh, Rs were going to outvote Ds. Rs had TWO competitive statewide primaries while Dems barely had 1, while Rs also had a few more competitive house primaries while Ds only had 2 I believe. Not to mention, the Sen GOP primary has been hyped nationally for weeks now.

Lastly IDK where you're getting your info but there is more D vote out than R vote now considering Ds voted way more by mail....

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I was always wondering why the DSCC didn't jump in and try to really boost Lamb, but after seeing Fetterman obliterate Lamb tonight it's obvious it wouldn't have changed the outcome, it just would have been closer

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

[S019]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

What does Carville have anything to do with this? It seems he lives rent free in your head. Anyways while I supported Lamb too much energy was spent over this race for second place.

[wbrocks67]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

What does Carville have anything to do with this? It seems he lives rent free in your head. Anyways while I supported Lamb too much energy was spent over this race for second place.

right? i've seen many people who were still slamming Lamb even after Fetterman lost... like I don't get what Lamb did to these people to make them so unhinged lmao.