PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Alben Barkley]

Endorsed!

[Alben Barkley]

The Braddock man John Fetterman confronted with a shotgun in 2013 says that should not stymie his Senate bid

“Even with everything I said, it is inhumane to believe one mistake should define a man’s life,” Miyares wrote in one of two letters sent to The Inquirer. “I hope he gets to be a Senator.” (That last line was underlined three times.)

Unexpected endorsement but OK.

[Alben Barkley]

So the guy alleges that Fetterman “lied about everything”, that Fetterman did know his race when he pulled the gun on him, and that “telling the truth now would probably hurt”, and yet wants Fetterman to be a Senator?

Wut?

Why would you want someone you are alleging is a liar to be in public office?

He probably thinks all politicians are liars anyway but likes Fetterman’s policies and doesn’t want this to be used against him by Republicans. Also the thing about not wanting “one mistake” to ruin someone’s life makes sense coming from a convict.

I mean he basically says it himself:

“Mr. Fetterman and his family have done far more good than that one bad act or action and, as such, should not be defined by it.”

[Alben Barkley]

I wonder what Fetterman/his allies offered him.  I mean, the dude was presumably bought off somehow.

If they were gonna buy him off it doesn't make much sense that he'd still claim Fetterman is lying about what happened. You'd expect he would instead "admit" Fetterman's story is true.

[Alben Barkley]

[Alben Barkley]

SAFE OZ!

Now that Parnell is out, Trump will endorse Oz (mark my words), and hell he probably could have won the nomination even without it. He’s a lock.

As for the general, both Fetterman and Lamb have strengths and weaknesses against a candidate like Oz. But none of it will matter due to the fact that 2022 will be a massive red wave and Oz will win on the strength of massive support from the key swing voters: Suburban white women. So-called “progressives” and “Blue Dogs” can bicker all they want over which of their failed candidates would have lost by a point or so less, but it doesn’t matter.

Dread it.

Run from it.

Senator Oz arrives all the same.

[Alben Barkley]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

[Alben Barkley]

LMFAO if both Oz AND Cawthorn lose tonight!

MAGA world was acting like Trump was eternal kingmaker because a guy who literally branded himself a hillbilly and thus had name recognition from some terrible Netflix movie that came out a couple years ago managed to barely win a Republican primary in Ohio. (I was SHOCKED!)

Failing to win key races in states which are ACTUALLY swing states nowadays, in extremely high profile national races with even more famous candidates, despite Trump's endorsement is FAR more damning and significant.

[Alben Barkley]

It’s Mehmet’s world and we just live in it.

Oz world! Oz world! Party time! Excellent!

In all seriousness its gonna f---ing blow when Fetterman loses in November off turnout differential alone and the consensus starts calling him damaged goods. Better not do him like Sestak.

Fetterman could beat Oz.  I wouldn’t call him the favorite but it’s not some unfathomable thing. 

Fetterman is indeed favored over Oz.

I was very much a doomer about November until the SCOTUS draft leak. Ever since then, I think... we still lose both Houses, but not AS bad, and Fetterman is absolutely favored against Oz, toss-up against McCormick.

[Alben Barkley]

Who would have thought that the Trump candidate is relying on a late midnight vote drop from the Philadelphia area and is benefitting from a constantly increasing amount of voters?

Even if Oz pulls it out by a nose, he will clearly lose most of the rural PA counties.

Which in itself calls into question many narratives about Trump and his support.

Oz will literally be saved by Philly and its suburbs if he manages to win this nomination, while the counties that actually voted for Trump rejected him decisively.

[Alben Barkley]

People keep saying this race could be like FL-SEN 2018, i.e. defying a wave year otherwise bad for the party that wins in this swing state by the skin of its teeth.

But what if it's more like MI-SEN 2014? Gary Peters outdid his polls and Obama 2012 and won by double digits in an otherwise abysmal year for Democrats. If Oz continues to crash and burn as a candidate, I could see Fetterman winning comfortably being at least as likely as his winning only narrowly. No matter what the overall national environment (which currently looks pretty neutral on the GCB) is like for Democrats.

[Alben Barkley]

LOL I like Fetterman's trolling campaign:

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1554162699432509442?s=20&t=IFsvRIiA...

[Alben Barkley]

If either Fetterman or Shapiro win, I will leave this forum forever.

Haven't you said this before? Like about Warnock/Ossoff or something? Maybe multiple times?

Do you promise to ACTUALLY do it this time?

[Alben Barkley]

New Republic: “The Humiliation of Dr. Oz Is Nearly Complete”

https://newrepublic.com/article/167457/humiliation-mehmet-oz-fetterman-pennsylvania

[Alben Barkley]

Brutal.
https://twitter.com/ReallyAmerican1/status/1562588501635256328

This is targeted right at the rural crowd.

Dems no longer know how to appeal to rural America and this ad only amplifies it. Painting a TV show doctor celebrity born in Ohio as a Turkish radical is just hilarious. These strategists people think it's 2002 and rural voters are going to vote against someone because he is a Muslim. Anyway, Turkey is a member of NATO, and is actually doing more to help Ukraine than the US is lol.

This may be the most ignorant take I’ve ever read on this site. Holy hell that’s saying something.

[Alben Barkley]

Next Dr. Oz campaign ad leaked:

[Alben Barkley]

I mean I’m sure this oppo has been shopped around news outlets but Jezebel being the only one picking it up is a red flag. There’s no way the NYT or WaPo would let Jezebel of all outlets to break this before them, there’s more to this story.

Yes, I'm just not sure about this one.  And now it destroys Fetterman if it's fake or very exaggerated.

On the other hand, it destroys Oz if it's confirmed (which it looks like it is).

[Alben Barkley]

Earlier, Nate Silver was like "But what if the stories get worse for Democrats on the home stretch?"

Didn't stop to consider "But what if they get EXPONENTIALLY worse for the Republicans," did you?

I'm moving the Senate to Likely D.

The candidates the GOP have put up are absolutely embarrassing, even by their pathetically low standards.

[Alben Barkley]

Earlier, Nate Silver was like "But what if the stories get worse for Democrats on the home stretch?"

Didn't stop to consider "But what if they get EXPONENTIALLY worse for the Republicans," did you?

I'm moving the Senate to Likely D.

The candidates the GOP have put up are absolutely embarrassing, even by their pathetically low standards.

Laxalt is likely winning so Dems still need Fetterman and Kelly.  I don't think that's Likely D at all.  It might be tilt D assuming both the Walker and Oz stories both hold up (Walker story looking much stronger for now).

Fetterman's up by an average of 6, Shapiro is DEFINITELY winning and I wouldn't count on too many Shapiro/Oz voters (puppy killer or not), and to say Laxalt is "likely" winning is a massive stretch. That one's a pure toss-up.

Kelly's all but safe at this point.

Put it all together and the odds of Democrats not winning are simply implausible. Rs need to SWEEP basically while Dems have room for error. It's the opposite of what it was in 2018. That translates to "Likely" as far as I'm concerned. 70-80% odds, which I think seem more than reasonable as of now, seem "Likely" to me.

FWIW I still think Rs are favored in the House. But it's closer now. Rs have done everything they can to blow what a year ago I thought was a slam dunk for them.

[Alben Barkley]

The Dog Story has been shuffling around the internet for awhile now. I'm surprised the media hasn't picked up on it until now.

This could be the Hunter Biden of this cycle. Oz torturing animals and Walker having abortions….and the Media gives them the BotD.

Except unlike Hunter Biden, this is directly relevant to the actual candidates running. The abortion story is particularly relevant this year, and seems particularly damning with particularly strong evidence.

[Alben Barkley]

Should have been Lamb.

[Alben Barkley]

Should have been Lamb.

EXCUSE ME...

EVERY ONE ALWAYS USES THAT EXCUSE

Show me your proven abilities to prove hypotheticals

Well we know Lamb wouldn’t have had a stroke, we knew even at the time he didn’t have the baggage with the black guy and the gun, he had a proven ability to win over moderates and rural voters in PA, etc. May not be able to “prove” he would be doing better but it seems quite likely. Also compare to Shapiro, who the GOP is literally using as an example of a moderate in comparison to Fetterman. That wouldn’t have worked with Lamb.

[Alben Barkley]

To UncleSam:

Mobility is low in the United States. It is better than other countries and some class differences are necessary for a functioning economy. But someone who grew up rich.. and is in a successful career? Is it really that much success?

Agreed, not really sure what that has to do with PA though. If anything Oz is the one who built an empire and was an extremely successful doctor off of nothing but his own hard work and undeniable medical ingenuity.

Fetterman meanwhile lived with his parents well into adulthood, lived off their money while he pursued a political career, and has literally never held a real job.

So tell me which candidate pulled himself up by his bootstraps and which one just spent his life living off of mommy and daddy’s money?

Oz, like Trump, is a con man who sells snake oil. No one is saying con men can’t be successful, but I would dispute the skills involved with being a con man (which mostly involve being willing to throw all ethics out the window while shamelessly lying to and manipulating people) somehow translate into being an effective leader. Oh they might make you great at the worst, sleaziest parts of politics — corrupt deals, lying to voters, etc. But is that really what we want MORE of in our politicians?

I’ll grant that Oz, unlike Trump (who was as silver spoon-fed and “never held a real job” as it gets), did show he had some work ethic and actual skills in his medical career. But he sold out to be a TV snake oil salesman. And in any case, just because you are smart and good in one field does not mean that translates to all other fields. This bizarre notion among Republicans that the richer someone is, the better they are in general reeks of prosperity gospel.

[Alben Barkley]

Again - I cannot believe the sheer hubris of the centrists saying that their candidate who lost the primary by 30 points should have been the nominee.

This primary wasn't a close, hard-fought race. This wasn't the 2016 primary. This was one of the biggest primary failures in recent political memory! Conor Lamb spent nine months making an ass of himself on the national stage, grasping desperately to try and run away from his Manchinesque record while taking mostly boilerplate stances. The only thing I remember him outflanking Fetterman on was masks, which was politically toxic for the general.

Overall, Lamb ran an embarrassing campaign, failed to even impress in 2020, and would have been a total disaster as the nominee. Dr. Oz would be tying him to Biden and Pelosi (two much less popular figures) instead of Bernie, and still would have fear-mongered about crime. Instead of the mealy-mouthed stroke victim, the people would see an empty suit for the Democratic agenda.

Ironically, there's an actual case for Kenyatta. He's a compelling candidate with a strong profile and firm ideology. He can also match Fetterman's energy and social media contributions. He didn't have the inside connections that Lamb did, which hurt his fundraising. But I do believe that would have come to pass if he won.

Sometimes, diamonds in the rough exist. I believed Fetterman was that candidate in 2016 when he came to Lancaster. I believe Kenyatta is that candidate now. He outperformed expectations, matched Fetterman's energy, and has been a very effective attack dog and surrogate. Maybe he wouldn't have sealed it up, but I believe he'd have a fighting chance.

For Lamb, there is no hypothetical. There is no "what if". There is no "Lamb would have won". By all objective measures, Conor Lamb's primary campaign was a sh*tshow. Lamb's 2020 campaign was mediocre as well. It's not Finkenauer bad, but it's pretty damn close.

I can't tell you how arrogant the centrists come off as when they say they would be winning after they blew the primary this hard. They had their chance to make the case to the voters. They failed.

Oh the irony of someone from the progressive/Berniecrat wing of the party claiming others have hubris for saying they would prefer a candidate who lost badly in the primaries. It speaks for itself so obviously I’ll just leave it at that. Other than to also laugh at the idea that “Manchinesque” would somehow be a bad quality for a candidate to have in a general election in Pennsylvania in a likely red-leaning year.

[Alben Barkley]

The obsession with these wives is absolutely disturbing to say the least.

Unsurprising to anyone who remembers what they did to Hillary long before she entered politics herself.