PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[NewYorkExpress]

Former Arlen Specter aide Craig Snyder will announce today.

Next year’s race to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate will help shape the direction of the Republican Party. And Craig Snyder thinks there’s still time to take a sharp turn away from former President Donald Trump.

Snyder, a 60-year-old Republican from Philadelphia and onetime top aide to the late, moderate Sen. Arlen Specter, will announce his candidacy on Wednesday in a race that will help determine control of the Senate.

He’s aiming squarely at the political middle, allying himself with prominent anti-Trump Republicans, and calling for a party reckoning. His slogan: “Not Trumpism. Not Socialism. Common Sense.”

“In the absence of the kind of movement that I’m trying to mobilize, Pennsylvanians are going to end up next November with an unacceptable choice between a MAGA extremist and a woke progressive extremist,” Snyder, a business consultant and lobbyist, said in an interview Monday ahead of his formal announcement.

I don't think positioning oneself as a member of the Romney/Cheney/Kinzinger wing of the party is the way going forward, and besides, didn't Specter get run out of the Republican Party anyways?

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

Why is that?

Do you think Shapiro is the wrong candidate for Governor (assuming he runs)?

I just think Fetterman's problems wouldn't be as apparent in Governor's race, which is less likely to get nationalized than a Senate race will be.

Shapiro is the stronger of the two candidates in the Governor's race, but Fetterman can win the Governor's race, because it's less likely to be nationalized compared to the Senate race (see 2014 when Tom Corbett lost to Wolf despite a Republican wave, both nationally and in Pennsylvania.)

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's Lean R regardless of the Republican nominee, but I'd more inclined to move it further towards the Democrats if Parnell is the Republican nominee.

Right now, him winning the Republican nomination is their only hope of picking up the seat.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sean Parnell's military thriller, Man of War features graphic violence against women.

Sean Parnell’s military thriller “Man of War” contains graphic scenes of violence against female characters, raising additional questions about his attitude toward women in the wake of court testimony that he physically and verbally abused his estranged wife.

Parnell, who has emerged as the frontrunner in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary, portrays multiple scenes of men assaulting women in the 2018 novel, the first of four in a fiction series written by the Army combat veteran.

[NewYorkExpress]

Dr. Oz's show ending December 14, so he can focus on his Senate bid.

[NewYorkExpress]

PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

[NewYorkExpress]

PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

I think Dean in particular would've been toxic for central Pennsylvania. She is like Rs textbook definition of a liberal elitist.

So, not really all that different from Fetterman, then.

[NewYorkExpress]

PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

I think Dean in particular would've been toxic for central Pennsylvania. She is like Rs textbook definition of a liberal elitist.

So, not really all that different from Fetterman, then.

HUH?

That's in reference to Fetterman's political views (which is basically if Bernie Sanders's economic policies met Joe Manchin's environmental policies), rather than his personality.

Of the candidates in the race, I'd prefer Kenyatta, but I'm not a Pennsylvania resident.

[NewYorkExpress]

Scott Perry has apparently endorsed Barnette.

Republican Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania is backing Kathy Barnette in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Barnette's campaign reported on Monday that it received a $1,000 contribution on Saturday from Perry's "First Capital" leadership PAC, a campaign account often used by members of Congress and other politicians to support like-minded causes and candidates.

The contribution comes as Barnette has surged in the polls ahead of Tuesday's primary election and disrupted what had previously been a head-to-head matchup between Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund manager David McCormick. Perry is breaking with former President Donald Trump, who's endorsed Oz and publicly criticized Barnette as unelectable in the general.

Perry, the chairman of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus, was recently subpoenaed by the House select committee investigating the January 6 riot along with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and three other Republican lawmakers. In response, Perry slammed the committee as an "illegitimate body" that's simply interested in "fabricating headlines and distracting Americans from their abysmal record of running America into the ground."

[NewYorkExpress]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

You sound way more my optimistic about Pennsylvania than Republicans do at this point  lol

Maybe it's just me, but based on the reaction so far Republicans almost sound like they are writing off Mastriano which is surprising considering how good the political environment is for them this year

Even former trump adviser David Urban said on CNN that he thinks Mastriano has very little chance of winning against Josh Shapiro. This is shocking to me because normally David Urban always hypes up the Republicans chances of winning big, but when it comes to Pennsylvania not even he thinks Mastriano is going to win.

If there truly is an R wave, it probably doesn't matter how horrible Mastriano is as a candidate. He's winning regardless, and the same with Oz against Fetterman.

[NewYorkExpress]

If this were a neutral or D-leaning year, we'd be looking at a 10+ point Fetterman win, yeah?

That might still be possible quite frankly. Oz really is that bad a candidate, that Fetterman could win by ten or more even in an R+10 or more year nationally.

[NewYorkExpress]

People from outside PA don't seem to understand the whole PA-NJ thing. You just wouldn't get it unless you lived here. This attack would not work if Oz was from any of the 48 other states (or 95% not nearly enough). It's just different.

I get it.  Imagine if CCM or Mark Kelly were running against some celebrity Republican who was known for living in a huge mansion in Beverly Hills.  "People from [neighboring state] suck!!" is a fairly universal thing. 

It’d be like some dude from Michigan running in Ohio.

No, it would be liked Jim Harbaugh ran for mayor of Columbus.

No, it would be like Dabo Swinney running for office in Alabama.

[NewYorkExpress]

Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

[NewYorkExpress]

Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

[NewYorkExpress]

Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

He just said at a rally he wants to turn PA into 'Northern Florida'.

That's still light years more competent that Oz's ineptness.

[NewYorkExpress]

Oz is no 😺 and doesn’t bring a knife to a gunfight. You hit him, he hits back twice as hard. This sick burn from Team Oz is just a taste of what he has in store for Fetterman!

Glad to see Oz is continuing to mock stroke survivors.

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1562152788645363714

That is just tasteless.

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, it's reminding me right now of WI-2016, with the differences being that Fetterman was never as strong a candidate as Russ Feingold, and Dr. Oz isn't the incumbent.

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, it's reminding me right now of WI-2016, with the differences being that Fetterman was never as strong a candidate as Russ Feingold, and Dr. Oz isn't the incumbent.

Except Johnson was seen as a heavy underdog all the way up to Election Day.

Johnson literally got carried over the line by Trump. If Trump had lost Wisconsin, he would have also lost.