PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ProudModerate2]

Wow

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1526372420055052288?s=20&t=MwrV0d0AuRLcFEb1J...

"Attacking"?
Hannity is helping her.

[Morning in Atlas]

Final predictions:

Fetterman 46%
Lamb 37%
Kenyatta 6%
Khalil 0.4%

Barnette 31%
Oz 29%
McCormick 25%

PA-12:
Irwin 41%
Lee 38%
Dickinson 14%

[Utah Neolib]

Final Prediction:
Fetterman by around 9 points. Lamb isn’t doing great.

Oz <1 percent.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My Final Prediction is Oz wins by 4.5 points

[OSR stands with Israel]

Imagine 5 years ago if someone told you the two leading Republican candidates for senate in Pennsylvania would be a Muslim backed by Trump and an African American women by the right wing grassroot voters.

[xavier110]

Fetterman wins by 25 or so. Oz wins by 2, maybe?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Given how rapidly Barnette has surged from nothing to just a hair out of the lead, I have think of her as the favorite.

[With you in spirit]

GOOOOOOOOOD MORNING!

[zoz]

Going to make some specific predictions (I'm willing to take the risk of this being entirely wrong lol, anything can happen today as far as we know)

Oz: 32%
Barnette: 30%
McCormick: 26%
Sands: 5%
Bartos: 5%
Other: 2%

In terms of the county map, Barnette will likely sweep the rural areas in the center of the state. She could win Montgomery as well, and Philadelphia may not be off the table either.

McCormick will probably win Allegheny and some other western counties due to the geographic nature of PA's primaries as well as perhaps Columbia and Luzerne or some others in NEPA. Chester or another SEPA suburban county may fall in behind him as well.

Oz will do best in eastern PA in some suburban/exurban counties but his Trump endorsement could be enough to give him a few scattered counties in central/western PA. His wins in larger counties as well as second place finishes across the state are enough for him to squeak by.

[wbrocks67]

Barnette could win Montgomery b/c she's the most known here, having run in 2020. However, interested to see how many GOP Primary voters are with or not with her after she went crazier post 2020.

[kyc0705]

Not sure if I'm a fan of Dr. Oz's new campaign slogan: https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1526376138188070913

[With you in spirit]

Not sure if I'm a fan of Dr. Oz's new campaign slogan: https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1526376138188070913

Ewwwww wtf?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Not sure if I'm a fan of Dr. Oz's new campaign slogan: https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1526376138188070913

Sure sounds a bit like a groomer.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oz for Senate: haha and then what

[Zenobiyl]

Prediction:
Oz wins by 1-2%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just note it's still a 303 map Mills, Kelly, Warnock, CCM and Hassan and Golden are leading in their respective polls if Rs are gonna crack the Blue wall we would see cracks in Mills and Golden support and there isn't any, Mills is leading by the same margin 44/36 as she won against Moody

We will win the blue wall, including P,A Rs gotta worry about Crist and Ryan they're blue dogs and can will even in a Pandemic, are they DOGS in OH and FL of course but it's plausible they can win if we hold onto H

There was 2 polls showing Fetterman ahead 44(/42 over Oz and up by 9 over Oz

OR Betsy Johnson is gonna win in a VBM Election by 500 votes

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if there are any voters who are changing their mind from Fetterman to Lamb post-stroke.

[With you in spirit]

I wonder if there are any voters who are changing their mind from Fetterman to Lamb post-stroke.

The absolute worst of the worst, probably.

[TML]

I wonder if there are any voters who are changing their mind from Fetterman to Lamb post-stroke.

I'm sure such people probably exist, but these people would most likely not be super-committed to supporting any particular candidate, and I'm not sure if they would comprise a big enough chunk of the overall electorate to actually swing the primary from one candidate to another.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Oz looses by 3.
Fetterman wins but not by the total landslide expected.

[wbrocks67]

More than 581,000 voters have already cast their votes in Tuesday’s election.

Nearly 453,000 registered Democrats and more than 125,000 Republicans had returned their mail ballots as of Monday morning, according to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State, which runs elections.

That’s about two-thirds of the nearly 879,000 voters who requested ballots.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/live/pennsylvania-primary-election-2022-candidates-philadelphia-ballot-questions-20220516.html#card-1614264967

[Schiff for Senate]

Final predictions:

1. Oz
[GAP OF ABOUT 1 POINT]
2. Barnette
[GAP OF ABOUT 2 POINTS]
3. McCormick

For the Democrats, Fetterman bests Lamb by 12.

[With you in spirit]

Wonder if this guy changed his vote because of the stroke? /s

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1526614514468257794?s=20&t=OPKVadFB...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wonder if this guy changed his vote because of the stroke? /s

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1526614514468257794?s=20&t=OPKVadFB...

Penn?  Maybe PQG could drop by and say hello to him.

[With you in spirit]

Wonder if this guy changed his vote because of the stroke? /s

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1526614514468257794?s=20&t=OPKVadFB...

Maybe PQG could drop by and say hello to him.

Would be nice, but John is at Lancaster General (which is not too far from where I live) and I believe PQG is out in Philly at Penn