Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717932899880546788

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those numbers don't look great for Democrats...

You never think anything is good news or good numbers for Democrats. What's your basis for this statement?

The AA and 18-29 percentages look lower than what Democrats would like.

as I said before you never think anything is positive for Democrats.

If Biden won reelection in a 1984-like sweep, he'd say that the future was ominous for Democrats because they still lost one state.

[Ferguson97]

If Biden won reelection in a 1984-like sweep, he'd say that the future was ominous for Democrats because they still lost one state.

And even if Biden won all 50, he'd say "Democrats can only do worse from here on out."

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717932899880546788

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those numbers don't look great for Democrats...

You never think anything is good news or good numbers for Democrats. What's your basis for this statement?

The AA and 18-29 percentages look lower than what Democrats would like.

as I said before you never think anything is positive for Democrats.

If Biden won reelection in a 1984-like sweep, he'd say that the future was ominous for Democrats because they still lost one state.

"Reagan got one of the biggest landslides in US history and the GOP still lost Senate control during the next midterms. Biden is screwed."

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

remarkably consistent. i wish the 18-29 vote was higher though.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

I've been assuming between 2.5 and 3 million-ish total votes. If that pans out, that's a pretty decent chunk of the electorate already voting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How is party tracked anyway when Virginia has an open primary?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

Things are holding at D+25, which is probably pretty good if you consider that there are a lot of non contested races in the DC area.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

Things are holding at D+25, which is probably pretty good if you consider that there are a lot of non contested races in the DC area.

I hate when someone runs unopposed in a general election.

[wbrocks67]

How is party tracked anyway when Virginia has an open primary?

Past voting history I believe

[Young Conservative]

How is party tracked anyway when Virginia has an open primary?

Past voting history I believe

That's not how VA does it, I don't think. I used L2 for my old job as a political consultant, and certain states, like Ohio, mark you as "registered" with whatever the last party primary you participated in. In those states, that's what L2 uses. In those states, L2 was somewhat useful still. VA is different though and genuinely has no partisan registration or tracking I don't think. It's some algorithm they use to estimate party registration, but it isn't very accurate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Regarding Susanna Gibson, her mistake was trying to play the victim about the tapes being leaked. If she just said "so what" and focused on the other issues she might have been able to escape it. Instead, she blamed others for finding stuff that she willingfully posted online and it just looks pathetic.

[Person Man]

Regarding Susanna Gibson, her mistake was trying to play the victim about the tapes being leaked. If she just said "so what" and focused on the other issues she might have been able to escape it. Instead, she blamed others for finding stuff that she willingfully posted online and it just looks pathetic.

If she were a Republican, she would’ve counterpunched on the issue and have not gone on the defensive. Probably would have called Owen a creep, ugly, and a loser.

[wbrocks67]

Regarding Susanna Gibson, her mistake was trying to play the victim about the tapes being leaked. If she just said "so what" and focused on the other issues she might have been able to escape it. Instead, she blamed others for finding stuff that she willingfully posted online and it just looks pathetic.

Looks like she outraised her GOP counterpart though in the latest finance report...

[wbrocks67]

With one week left, a competitive district R is now stepping in it re: abortion

Senate hopeful Durant signals interest in going beyond 15 weeks on abortion
https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/senate-hopeful-durant-signals-interest-in-going-beyond-15-weeks-on-abortion/article_60e81fb8-7754-11ee-acee-f36d56f1b7a6.html

[Roll Roons]

What was Youngkin’s approval in Morning Consult?

[wbrocks67]

What was Youngkin’s approval in Morning Consult?

53/36

[wbrocks67]

Even with the Youngkin onslaught, Dems still outspending GOP by $7M

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1719415706125488167

[Person Man]

With one week left, a competitive district R is now stepping in it re: abortion

Senate hopeful Durant signals interest in going beyond 15 weeks on abortion
https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/senate-hopeful-durant-signals-interest-in-going-beyond-15-weeks-on-abortion/article_60e81fb8-7754-11ee-acee-f36d56f1b7a6.html

Dumb

[Skill and Chance]

Seems enough attention is being paid to outer suburbs Biden +low districts (SD-27, HD-30, HD-71, HD-75) that Dems should probably feel pretty good?  Of course, the wildcard is an R surprise in some of the rural Southside or PWC majority-minority districts.  However, that only really impacts the HoD contest (it would impact SD-24, but that's already right of median).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Seems enough attention is being paid to outer suburbs Biden +low districts (SD-27, HD-30, HD-71, HD-75) that Dems should probably feel pretty good?  Of course, the wildcard is an R surprise in some of the rural Southside or PWC majority-minority districts.  However, that only really impacts the HoD contest (it would impact SD-24, but that's already right of median).

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1719483956280578072

[Mr.Phips]

Seems enough attention is being paid to outer suburbs Biden +low districts (SD-27, HD-30, HD-71, HD-75) that Dems should probably feel pretty good?  Of course, the wildcard is an R surprise in some of the rural Southside or PWC majority-minority districts.  However, that only really impacts the HoD contest (it would impact SD-24, but that's already right of median).

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1719483956280578072

SD-27 is likely seat 23 for Dems in the senate.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems enough attention is being paid to outer suburbs Biden +low districts (SD-27, HD-30, HD-71, HD-75) that Dems should probably feel pretty good?  Of course, the wildcard is an R surprise in some of the rural Southside or PWC majority-minority districts.  However, that only really impacts the HoD contest (it would impact SD-24, but that's already right of median).

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1719483956280578072

SD-27 is likely seat 23 for Dems in the senate.

If there's a Louisiana style situation with black turnout/Dem margins, it would jump ahead of SD-24 to seat 22.

[Mr.Phips]

Seems enough attention is being paid to outer suburbs Biden +low districts (SD-27, HD-30, HD-71, HD-75) that Dems should probably feel pretty good?  Of course, the wildcard is an R surprise in some of the rural Southside or PWC majority-minority districts.  However, that only really impacts the HoD contest (it would impact SD-24, but that's already right of median).

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1719483956280578072

SD-27 is likely seat 23 for Dems in the senate.

If there's a Louisiana style situation with black turnout/Dem margins, it would jump ahead of SD-24 to seat 22.

I would agree were it not for Monty Mason (who has run and won tough races before) being the incumbent in SD-24.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tara Durant Built Her Political Career On A Story That Doesn’t Add Up

But newly obtained documents relating to Durant’s 911 call, in addition to an interview with a protester who was present during Durant’s supposed assault, tell a different story of what happened that day ― one that suggests Durant has been significantly exaggerating.

HuffPost reviewed copies of police reports, obtained via the Freedom of Information Act, that suggest Durant instigated a confrontation with protesters, who regularly held peaceful demonstrations in the area, and that she tried to hit them with her car as they stood in a crosswalk.

According to the police reports ― which characterize the protest as peaceful, with “no arrests or property damage” ― witnesses told police there was a car being aggressive toward protesters in the same intersection where Durant was located, at the same time she was there.

Worth reading the whole thing.