Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1402415074254508033

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20
This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

2018?

[GeorgiaModerate]

McAuliffe is kind of a Democratic Trump.  Fairly moderate on an actual policy level, but constantly having personal scandals and putting his foot in his mouth.

What personal scandals?  Has he been cheating on his wife?  Has he molested any models or other younger women while I was sleeping?  

The only thing he has done that might have raised eyebrows was when he wrestled an alligator years ago, but apart from that I am at a loss.....  

Who won?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1450189108761010176

The sleeping giant is waking up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1450104657167011844

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we all just accept there is a lot we don't know? It is the first post Trump-era large state election and one that did underestimate Dems in 2017 (albeit it did the same to GOP in 2013). Until we get actual numbers it is difficult to make predictions about 2022. So far special elections this year have shown little crossover from 2020 but these are small ones with low turnout. Accept the unknown and wait for the data in 13 days.

I completely agree with your point about there being a lot of unknowns, but ISTR there was just a recent election in a pretty large state out west somewhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the interviews.

https://wjla.com/news/local/watch-7news-goes-one-on-one-with-virginia-gubernatorial-candidates-terry-mcauliffe-glenn-youngkin

McAuliffe answered yes when asked if he would mandate COVID vaccine for kids in schools.  Not sure why he thinks viewers wouldn't care about that, or crime, or education.

I suspect that yes is the winning side of that question in all but the most Republican states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1451896196923068424

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

It would be between Trump 2016 and Trump territory.

If you mean his chances are between Trump 2016 and Trump 2020, then yes I agree with that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

According to what? What votes have been counted?

I'm sure he means that the polling indicates a close race, which is certainly true.

There are some people on the right who seem to think that Youngkin is the favorite and has this all but wrapped up.  This is objectively not the case.  Youngkin has made it closer than it was earlier in the campaign -- and it's close enough that he's within striking distance -- but every indication is that he is still behind.

However, there are some people on the left who think that McAuliffe is so far ahead that there's no way he can lose.  This is at least as wrong as the first position is.  Virginia has obviously moved to the left, and it's no longer as swingy as, say, Pennsylvania -- but some of you seem to think that it's become Maryland.

And frankly, the second group has become more annoying than the first one.  Have you learned nothing from the last few years about overconfidence?

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to what? What votes have been counted?

LOL, exactly. 

He cannot lose because Youngkin doesn't have the votes, period. 

Pick one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1452991340787249158

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the kid grew up to be a lawyer for the NRCC does make a case that he was emotionally scarred by the experience.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New CNU/Wason Center poll has the Democrat up by 1 in all three races:

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-10-27.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pollster: thanks very much for your information and insightful analysis, which has been a breath of fresh air compared to most of this thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/melmason/status/1453467288649158656

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1453427317800411139?s=20

On what planet was the conventional wisdom that Northam was going to lose in 2017?

planet https://talkelections.org

My recollection of the CW here is that it was mostly for a close Northam win.  The big surprise was not that he won, but that he won by so much.

Taking a look backward, the last forum poll of the 2017 race, done just before the election, is at https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276657.0.  75 of 99 respondents picked Northam.  Most of the replies predicted Northam, generally by fairly narrow margins, although there were several that did predict a Gillespie win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1453510548260364289

Siri, translate this tweet from MAGA to English.

Siri: The early voting numbers look good for Democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1453742293052051463
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1453744369543094272

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

This is just such a bizarre talking point. How do you even dignify crap like this with an argument?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlaHSands/status/1452991576972611599?ref_src=twsrc%...

These are not official McAuliffe campaign signs, or Youngkin campaign signs either.  (Clue: in Virginia, it’s actually illegal for a candidate to make a yard sign without a disclosure saying who paid for it.)  It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out that a Republican source is behind these signs, in order to dupe the credulous.

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/keep-parents-out-of-classrooms-signs-not-made-by-terry-mcauliffe-or-glenn-youngkin-campaigns/65-a662fafc-fdc4-4424-82f1-bc12bf24dce8

https://www.restonnow.com/2021/10/28/possible-fake-campaign-sign-spotted-in-herndon/

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

This is just such a bizarre talking point. How do you even dignify crap like this with an argument?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlaHSands/status/1452991576972611599?ref_src=twsrc%...

That has to be a fake.

The signs are real, but the source is unknown.  See the links I posted a few replies above.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

There’s a world of difference between parents being involved and letting them call all the shots and believing that they know better than teachers.

Exactly.  Parents being personally involved in their children's education is great.  Parents giving input to school boards and professional educators is great.  Parents overruling those professionals and defining the curriculum is a terrible idea.

[GeorgiaModerate]

parents can vote for school boards and other officials just like everyone else, that's how democracies work.

parents cannot storm school board meetings and act like terrorists.  that's how the modern GOP wants society to function (see Charlottesville and Jan. 6th insurrection for more) but is not how it does.  

So were Democrats protesting at town halls in 2017 acting like terrorists too. 

How many of them were threatening violence against school board members and their families?

[GeorgiaModerate]

First of all, the McAuliffe quote about "parents not being able to decide the curriculum" or whatever has been blown WAY out of proportion. I mean parents don't get to decide every single part of the curriculum, that's literally not their job. Sure they should have input, they can vote for school board --- or run for it.

I have to ask, is it true that this sample was 50-49 Trump? Because that's kind of important info being left out if that's true.

The LV sample was.  The RV sample was Biden +6, I believe.