Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[lfromnj]

Reminding me a little bit of NJ 2013, when Christie was very popular and Obama wasn't really, but it had basically no effect whatsoever on the legislative races despite a genuine effort by the Republicans.

Not exactly, the old maps were a strong gerrymander by Obama #s and local incumbency matters a lot. Rs did manage to win the PV by 5 though.

[Mr.Phips]

Reminding me a little bit of NJ 2013, when Christie was very popular and Obama wasn't really, but it had basically no effect whatsoever on the legislative races despite a genuine effort by the Republicans.

Not exactly, the old maps were a strong gerrymander by Obama #s and local incumbency matters a lot. Rs did manage to win the PV by 5 though.

Aren’t the new maps basically the same partisanship wise outside of LD-04?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1716458851510141187

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1716458851510141187

Holding steady with two weeks left, I guess.

[kwabbit]

Reminding me a little bit of NJ 2013, when Christie was very popular and Obama wasn't really, but it had basically no effect whatsoever on the legislative races despite a genuine effort by the Republicans.

Not exactly, the old maps were a strong gerrymander by Obama #s and local incumbency matters a lot. Rs did manage to win the PV by 5 though.

Aren’t the new maps basically the same partisanship wise outside of LD-04?

In 2013 the tipping point was 14.8 points to the right of the state. It should be about even now. The GOP coalition seems to be more electorally efficient on the Senate level since they no longer win the outer suburban seats by 40 points. The 2013 vote could've shifted 20 points left without any seat changes.

[wbrocks67]

New co/efficient (R) poll shows a tied race.

Funny enough, it has an R+3 electorate advantage, but still only tied, because Dems winning Indies by 10%, 55-45.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1716496823790051808

[Lief 🗽]

Similar to some of the national polls for 2024 showing the GOP winning ~20% of the black vote and splitting young voters evenly. I guess we’ll see.

[MT Treasurer]

Similar to some of the national polls for 2024 showing the GOP winning ~20% of the black vote and splitting young voters evenly. I guess we’ll see.

I’m really just interested in seeing if there’s a general pro-R and pro-D pattern emerging in these races. Consistent overperformances by one side will tell us more about 2024 than a single gubernatorial or state legislative contest.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New co/efficient (R) poll shows a tied race.

Funny enough, it has an R+3 electorate advantage, but still only tied, because Dems winning Indies by 10%, 55-45.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1716496823790051808

It's not a tied environment if Dems are winning Indys by 10 points.

Anyways, I'm starting to feel pretty good about our chances here.

[wbrocks67]

Similar to some of the national polls for 2024 showing the GOP winning ~20% of the black vote and splitting young voters evenly. I guess we’ll see.

To be fair, co/efficient in particular was notorious about this last year too. They regularly had Oz winning 20-25% of the black vote and outright winning Hispanics/Other in PA.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Similar to some of the national polls for 2024 showing the GOP winning ~20% of the black vote and splitting young voters evenly. I guess we’ll see.

To be fair, co/efficient in particular was notorious about this last year too. They regularly had Oz winning 20-25% of the black vote and outright winning Hispanics/Other in PA.

To add on to this, Fetterman ended up winning AAs 91-8% and Hispanics 68-30%. So, moral of the story: don't put too much stock into cross tabs

[Gass3268]

Feels a bit over the top and maybe counterproductive for Republicans. Also maybe some desperation?

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1716658935178911966?s=46

[Skill and Chance]

Feels a bit over the top and maybe counterproductive for Republicans. Also maybe some desperation?

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1716658935178911966?s=46

Gross.

[Skill and Chance]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

[Roll Roons]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

Probably a combination of both? Youngkin and the state party have been pushing early voting hard.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The cope is getting more laughable by the minute. Owen is basically guaranteed to win at this point

[Person Man]

Feels a bit over the top and maybe counterproductive for Republicans. Also maybe some desperation?

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1716658935178911966?s=46

Gross.

Yes.

[wbrocks67]

Well, the thing is, if the GOP felt good about this seat, why would they be resorting to tactics like those?

Secondly, it's wholy ironic given that the GOP is always playing their fiddle of sexuality and kids "being exposed to it" and then they do... that? Which is literally sending porn to homes?

[wbrocks67]

Now Youngkin is wading in? This feels like a really bad unforced error in the closing moments of this campaign

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1716792112803459310

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

[Duke of York]

Now Youngkin is wading in? This feels like a really bad unforced error in the closing moments of this campaign

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1716792112803459310

this is definitely something i could see backfiring.

[wbrocks67]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

The electorate was D+2 in 2021, I can't imagine it would be R this year.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1716842385055879517

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

The electorate was D+2 in 2021, I can't imagine it would be R this year.

I think it will be R given that Ds aren’t turning in inner NoVa, but it doesn’t give Rs a trifecta since Democrats are turning out in swing seats.

[wbrocks67]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

The electorate was D+2 in 2021, I can't imagine it would be R this year.

I think it will be R given that Ds aren’t turning in inner NoVa, but it doesn’t give Rs a trifecta since Democrats are turning out in swing seats.

Nova turnout is still up in the air though; we don't know if by the end, it truly will just be bad turnout, or these voters are waiting for more EV centers/election day to vote.