Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Roll Roons]

I'm kind of surprised at this take, given how bearish he has been on Dems in the past.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1715002493887819934

He was very bullish on Democrats in 2020 because of all the crap polls and overcorrected in 2022.

[It’s so Joever]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

[It’s so Joever]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

[wbrocks67]

Only because it's the only resource that my provide some insights, TargetEarly's modeled electorate in 2021 for VA showed this 19 days out:

380K total votes
57.5% D
29.2% R
13.3% U

But TargetSmart's modeled has had issues in the past, though.

[Young Conservative]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

2022 was only D+3 statewide.  4% left of 2021 would be D+2 statewide.  This is all more or less tracking with 2022.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

2022 was only D+3 statewide.  4% left of 2021 would be D+2 statewide.  This is all more or less tracking with 2022.

I do think based on turnout of Safe Red seats being higher than Safe Blue seats that we might be headed for a R+ PV, but that doesn’t translate to majorities due to vote inefficiency.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

[Agafin]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

[Person Man]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

And Youngkin himself wants you to remember it.

[Agafin]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

And Youngkin himself wants you to remember it.

The effects of the Roe repeal are already baked in. So there'd need to be an equally impactful event in 2024 to make the 2021-2022 trends comparable to 2023-2024.

[SnowLabrador]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

And Youngkin himself wants you to remember it.

The effects of the Roe repeal are already baked in. So there'd need to be an equally impactful event in 2024 to make the 2021-2022 trends comparable to 2023-2024.

SCOTUS overturning Obergefell, maybe? Though I doubt it would cause as much backlash as Dobbs did.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1715410614103769438

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Polls show a stubborn D +1 to D +2 right now.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1715460236805386585

[Skill and Chance]

Polls show a stubborn D +1 to D +2 right now.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1715460236805386585

2022 redux?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1715410614103769438

Aligns with my priors that this would be Dem seat #22.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Polls show a stubborn D +1 to D +2 right now.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1715460236805386585

2022 redux?

I think the map will look like a D+1 map but Rs win the popular vote due to turning out more in Safe R seats. Keep in mind polls also looked like this at this point in 2021.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

I'm not forgetting it, that's entirely my point-lots can happen in a year between election cycles.

[Senator Incitatus]

Reminding me a little bit of NJ 2013, when Christie was very popular and Obama wasn't really, but it had basically no effect whatsoever on the legislative races despite a genuine effort by the Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Virginia Democrats also say basically 50/50 they're voting early/on election day, which makes me think there's also a lot of huff being made about Safe D areas having lower turnout where it could just be that many are just waiting for ED (or more early voting locations)

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, RE: abortion - seems like now a huge blunder for Republicans to focus so hard on it; they're losing majorly on this issue.

Youngkin's approval is -8 (37/45) while Democrats are trusted by 17% more on the issue (51-34)

Also, with all the talk of Republicans trying to say Democrats are the ones that are too extreme on the issue; they are the ones who are seen as more "about right" on the issue, while Republicans are way more out of step:

Democrats - 46% “about right”, 40% “too much access”
Republicans - 34 “about right”, 51% “too many restrictions”

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia Democrats also say basically 50/50 they're voting early/on election day, which makes me think there's also a lot of huff being made about Safe D areas having lower turnout where it could just be that many are just waiting for ED (or more early voting locations)

If half of Dems are now day-of, that would indicate there was still a meaningful COVID effect in 2022 and probably something like 75% of the total vote is day-of.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like turnout is picking up in more safe D areas with more early voting locations opening:

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1716268629040251054