Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are in person school full time

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

Isn't that during the Spring?

I assume its 95% now?

huh, I guess you're right. I'm not sure what the current number is.  Still having them out of in-person school for so long is an issue of dissatisfaction for a lot of people.

Yeah Chap Petersen was the Democrat who called them out the rest of the party on the issue.

Can see why you put him in your displayname. He's a maverick-y figure from the looks of it.

[NOVA Green]

One other thing I've been wondering about is distribution of votes as election results come in Tomorrow.

Sounds like in a close election ( +/- 1-2% spread) with EV more extensive, we might start with a model where TMAC starts with a pretty large lead from NOVA then that gets whittled down as same day votes start to get tallied from downstate rurals (With possibly even a Youngkin lead for a bit) and then same day NOVA starts to counterattack.

[lfromnj]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are in person school full time

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

Isn't that during the Spring?

I assume its 95% now?

huh, I guess you're right. I'm not sure what the current number is.  Still having them out of in-person school for so long is an issue of dissatisfaction for a lot of people.

Yeah Chap Petersen was the Democrat who called them out the rest of the party on the issue.

Can see why you put him in your displayname. He's a maverick-y figure from the looks of it.

Mostly just meming due to the election coming beforehand but he is quite interesting. He even opposed an assault weapons ban while coming from a 70% Biden seat in Fairfax county !

[Continential]

Hopefully the results come in decently fast.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are in person school full time

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

Isn't that during the Spring?

I assume its 95% now?

huh, I guess you're right. I'm not sure what the current number is.  Still having them out of in-person school for so long is an issue of dissatisfaction for a lot of people.

Yeah Chap Petersen was the Democrat who called them out the rest of the party on the issue.

Can see why you put him in your displayname. He's a maverick-y figure from the looks of it.

Mostly just meming due to the election coming beforehand but he is quite interesting. He even opposed an assault weapons ban while coming from a 70% Biden seat in Fairfax county !

He kind of sounds like if I was a VA state senator lol.

[Matty]

A reporter from Powhatan claims to have seen Powhatan county GOp internal polling showing Youngkin 79 Mcauliffe 19 in the county


Seems decent for Youngkin but perhaps not enough of a swing

[jamestroll]

Virginia has very few pandemic restrictions.. and I felt horrible last January when I was frequented gyms, went to restaurants with co-workers etc while kids had to learn via zoom.

I raged about it all over social media. Perhaps that's why I was frequented canvassed by the trumpkin campaign

[jamestroll]

Chap Peterson is my state senator. I mostly like him

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ProjectVirginia/status/1455331863690612752?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

Guess there was logistical reasons why Virginia Beach didn't happen

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1455314059679645698

Remember when BigSerg was trying to portray it as McAuliffe failing? Lol

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/ProjectVirginia/status/1455331863690612752?s=20

I think Youngkin will win, but I'm hesitant to take this source seriously.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Youngkin campaign is trying to pretend like it's massively ahead.
That seems like a bad tactical decision but maybe they calculate that this will generate the rural VA turnout he needs.

Seems like he's trying to lay the groundwork for a "stolen election" narrative should he lose, convince his supporters that fraud was the only possible thing that could've happened. 

I mean, we all saw the Fox poll. Clearly Youngkin is winning by 8 points.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Videos like this are always dumb.  Like, do you think that if they found a Youngkin voter who could actually articulate what CRT is they would be plastering his facae on social media trying to get him to go viral?  lol

My money says 95% of Youngkin voters cannot do this.  Yet it's their number 1 issue.  

C'mon, man, c'mon! Everyone intuitively knows, what CRT is. It's White People BAAAD. As simple as that. A lot of {white} libs think this way, and believe or not, some of them are teachers. And, of course, some will inject it in some way in theirs teaching.


Condoleezza Rice explains like a Queen she is, what many normie parents worry about:

https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1451038600242544642
Here is the full video:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Youngkin/GOP should make an ad of it.

Well, in the red state of Louisiana none of my Republican co-worker had never heard or even talked about CTR until after Trump had lost in 2020.

Condoleezza Rice can explain it all she wants, but the reality is as a Black American neither I or any of my family was ever taught that all White People are BAD in school nor has any of the young kids in our family has ever had a teacher come up to them to talk about CRT

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways for all the talk about “enthusiasm”, there are zero snap posts I have seen directly related to this event nor any signs. The most political stuff I have seen are “I did that” stickers, which are anti-Biden so could be construed as pro Youngkin by extent?
I saw two snaps about it in New Hanover and one in Newport News, (maybe one in Loudoun but tbh I don’t remember). Otherwise nothing.I have been meticulously looking at snap stories across Virgini for the past week. Yeah not much.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

Doesn't look all that big to me....

[Brittain33]

I can believe Youngkin is doing well, but... that's not a big crowd.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

Doesn't look all that big to me....

Idk, it's definitely bigger than TMac's "rally", but as other users have already said, rallies don't matter

[NOVA Green]

One other thing I've been wondering about is distribution of votes as election results come in Tomorrow.

Sounds like in a close election ( +/- 1-2% spread) with EV more extensive, we might start with a model where TMAC starts with a pretty large lead from NOVA then that gets whittled down as same day votes start to get tallied from downstate rurals (With possibly even a Youngkin lead for a bit) and then same day NOVA starts to counterattack.

Steve K on Rachel on MSNBC is predicting a mixture with EV coming in heavy from both rural PUB Counties AND DEM NOVA, with rural PUB ED voting coming in quickly as well.

Basically he's saying it's hard for him to benchmark the TO (~ 3 Million) but could change plus or minus.

RE: AA voter TO he's thinking the closer to 20% better number for DEMs under 18% not so good (Will look at it County by County on eNight).

Naturally mentions Loudon as well as White College Educated voter swings in NOVA (Also Richmond) as key, and also checks the AAPI and Latino vote esp in NOVA.

[NOVA Green]

A reporter from Powhatan claims to have seen Powhatan county GOp internal polling showing Youngkin 79 Mcauliffe 19 in the county


Seems decent for Youngkin but perhaps not enough of a swing

Wasserman benchmarks had it at 75-25 Youngkin for a narrow PUB win with est 14.5k TVs.

So yeah---- I really think TO could well make the difference for either candidate, since really this is a tricky race to model....

[Non Swing Voter]

I just did the math.  Since the 2017 election, the big 5 NOVA jurisdictions added 90,000 registered voters.  SWVA lost about 10,000. 

I looked at a scattering of other jurisdictions across the state and there was movement here or there that helped each party but the biggest shifts were in these two regions. 

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

Doesn't look all that big to me....

Idk, it's definitely bigger than TMac's "rally", but as other users have already said, rallies don't matter

Agreed generally--- still in terms of GOTV and which generally going to be favorable local media coverage for just about any major party candidate's rallies, it could play a role depending upon how these events are covered by the local media (esp with Metro DC media markets being some of the most expensive in the country, certainly for last minute air time).

[NOVA Green]

I just did the math.  Since the 2017 election, the big 5 NOVA jurisdictions added 90,000 registered voters.  SWVA lost about 10,000. 

I looked at a scattering of other jurisdictions across the state and there was movement here or there that helped each party but the biggest shifts were in these two regions. 

Does VA have any variation of AVR?

Like do you need to request to be a registered voter or can you do that through a routine transaction at the DMV type gig?

[Non Swing Voter]

One other thing I've been wondering about is distribution of votes as election results come in Tomorrow.

Sounds like in a close election ( +/- 1-2% spread) with EV more extensive, we might start with a model where TMAC starts with a pretty large lead from NOVA then that gets whittled down as same day votes start to get tallied from downstate rurals (With possibly even a Youngkin lead for a bit) and then same day NOVA starts to counterattack.

Steve K on Rachel on MSNBC is predicting a mixture with EV coming in heavy from both rural PUB Counties AND DEM NOVA, with rural PUB ED voting coming in quickly as well.

Basically he's saying it's hard for him to benchmark the TO (~ 3 Million) but could change plus or minus.

RE: AA voter TO he's thinking the closer to 20% better number for DEMs under 18% not so good (Will look at it County by County on eNight).

Naturally mentions Loudon as well as White College Educated voter swings in NOVA (Also Richmond) as key, and also checks the AAPI and Latino vote esp in NOVA.

That is much better analysis than the Wasserman crap.... you should follow whoever that is.  The early vote should look very democratic at first because FFX is going to drop a huge batch at poll closing (per the election official there).  Rurals wont be able to counteract that.  They've barely turned out early.  The big question will be what the split is in Fairfax and other NOVA counties in terms of Election Day vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

I just did the math.  Since the 2017 election, the big 5 NOVA jurisdictions added 90,000 registered voters.  SWVA lost about 10,000. 

I looked at a scattering of other jurisdictions across the state and there was movement here or there that helped each party but the biggest shifts were in these two regions. 

Does VA have any variation of AVR?

Like do you need to request to be a registered voter or can you do that through a routine transaction at the DMV type gig?

affirmative on DMV.  that's how I registered.  And that was even before Dems took complete control.