Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/zhizhierbuzhier/status/1454880943450230784
https://twitter.com/zhizhierbuzhier/status/1454903524140199936

Turnout relative to 2020 if anyone is wondering.

[Senator Spark]

Rs are done if NOVA comes out and margins are high there, meaning Youngkin has to get >35% in Fairfax, within 10% or less in Loudoun, and crack 20% in Alexandria. It's unlikely but possible.

[NOVA Green]

One other thing I've been wondering about is distribution of votes as election results come in Tomorrow.

Sounds like in a close election ( +/- 1-2% spread) with EV more extensive, we might start with a model where TMAC starts with a pretty large lead from NOVA then that gets whittled down as same day votes start to get tallied from downstate rurals (With possibly even a Youngkin lead for a bit) and then same day NOVA starts to counterattack.

Steve K on Rachel on MSNBC is predicting a mixture with EV coming in heavy from both rural PUB Counties AND DEM NOVA, with rural PUB ED voting coming in quickly as well.

Basically he's saying it's hard for him to benchmark the TO (~ 3 Million) but could change plus or minus.

RE: AA voter TO he's thinking the closer to 20% better number for DEMs under 18% not so good (Will look at it County by County on eNight).

Naturally mentions Loudon as well as White College Educated voter swings in NOVA (Also Richmond) as key, and also checks the AAPI and Latino vote esp in NOVA.

That is much better analysis than the Wasserman crap.... you should follow whoever that is.  The early vote should look very democratic at first because FFX is going to drop a huge batch at poll closing (per the election official there).  Rurals wont be able to counteract that.  They've barely turned out early.  The big question will be what the split is in Fairfax and other NOVA counties in terms of Election Day vote.

Steve Kornacki is the NBC / MSNBC elections coverage dude and knows his s**t.

He's basically their equivalent of CNN's Jonathan King if that helps jog your memory, plus perhaps considered a bit hotter and sexier from various perspectives (and suspect perhaps slightly even more so on Atlas).   

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1454085418073329677?s=20

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

[Old Man Willow]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Certainly better than the inverse, knowing what CRT is and being in support of it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Certainly better than the inverse, knowing what CRT is and being in support of it.

Nah.

[BigSerg]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

[swf541]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

Well we will know soon enough! Should be interesting

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455366223903002628?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

Well we will know soon enough! Should be interesting

Lolz.... anybody know some good online betting sites where we can bet on "Which candidate wins Loudon County?".

Sounds like chump change to me even as an odds bet.   

[swf541]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

Well we will know soon enough! Should be interesting

Lolz.... anybody know some good online betting sites where we can bet on "Which candidate wins Loudon County?".

Sounds like chump change to me even as an odds bet.   

Yes.... that would be a good idea lol

[Devils30]

The polls with TMac +10 with white college grads and in any trouble in Loudoun are literally impossible together. One has to be wrong.

[roxas11]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

So what are glenn youngkins chances of winning if he goes on to lose Loudoun?

[NOVA Green]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

So what are glenn youngkins chances of winning if he does end up losing Loudoun?

I think CW is that he will lose Loudoun County and if T-Mac loses Loudon will be game set match, but reality is that this election is less about winning any one individual county but rather the margins, swings, and over TO.

It goes back to question of % of margins in places such as NOVA and TO models Statewide etc...

VA isn't a State completely dominated by one large Metro area which acts in complete unison vs the rest of the State, so that's why it would be interesting to see some proper Benchmark analysis (And yes I gather that Wasserman might not be the most reliable for many VA posters on Atlas).

[lfromnj]

By the way NSV did you bet the max on predict it?

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455366223903002628?s=20

I am not 100% discounting it but it is very unlikely. 2019 results suggest that Loudoun may be willing to re-elect incumbent Republicans but Idk if it will be going GOP in a state level race. We shall see.

90% Tmac wins it but I won't 100% discount it.

The Nova jurisdictions to watch are Manassas and Manassas Park. Large hispanic populations as well. Also, Manassas is the literal the reason Prince William County has a Republican Sheriff still.

[BigSerg]

Apparently, the Quinnipiac poll was discarded for showing crazy data (D+15 or R+10?)

[lfromnj]

Apparently, the Quinnipiac survey was discarded for showing crazy data (D+15 or R+10?)

Source?

[BigSerg]

Apparently, the Quinnipiac survey was discarded for showing crazy data (D+15 or R+10?)

Source?

No source, Twitter Rumors haha

[Politics Fan]

Apparently, the Quinnipiac poll was discarded for showing crazy data (D+15 or R+10?)

Imagine if that was correct and it’s a major blowout for one side tomorrow lol

[Utah Neolib]

This is pretty cool

https://twitter.com/mcbyrne/status/1455309096538845187

Really cool graphics imo

[jamestroll]

to be fair to the trumpkin will win loudoun county people:

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20191105/local/loudoun-county-va/

they did split the ballot  a lot in 2019

[jamestroll]

Let's have fun today!

[jamestroll]

Time to move to

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=468576.0

Let's have fun arguing there but be civil!

[Mr. Reactionary]

When do the dixville notch results come in?