Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[KaiserDave]

This race annoys me. I don’t want my hopes up. There is no shot

Look at the spending .... 47M to 8m

Senator-elect McGrath and Harrison agree

[SenatorCouzens]

I'm trying to look at this as objectively as possible. The opposition research against Warnock is very impressive.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not wanting a Dem trifecta is the height of madness.

We already know exactly what McConnell is going to do.  We already know exactly where this country is going.  The Senate Republicans are beyond salvation.  They won't even recognize that Biden won the election!  The Biden presidency is going to begin with Senate Republicans refusing to pass any COVID stimulus package, and that will be the first in a series of actions intended to intentionally destroy America, so that they can blame it on Biden.  And just like with Obama, dummy Americans will believe it.  "Oh, he didn't have a good relationship with Congress.  He wasn't a good compromiser."

You are correct that we all know what McConnell will do.

But back in the primaries, you were singing a very different tune when you were hacking for Biden and trying to beat back Bernie.

At the time, apparently you didn't know that McConnell would do that.

According to you, Biden would be able to work with McConnell and the Senate would "return to normal" if we just had a President Biden rather than a President Sanders:

The tea party and McConnell stonewalling Obama and holding the country hostage over the debt ceiling was an aberration, not the norm.  It may be that the next Congress treats a Democratic president the same way.  But I think we are much more likely to see a return to normal relations if we have a president Biden who knows how the Senate works and has decades of connections and experience writing and passing effective, substantial bipartisan legislation.  A president Sanders who has decades of doing nothing and making everyone hate him, famously refuses to compromise, and takes the most extreme position on every issue?  Ain't gonna happen.

Magical Biden bipartisanship sparkle ponies? Why don't we just send Biden in to reason with McConnell. Surely it will work out then, we'll get some wonderful bipartisan legislation then, right? And we will get ponies, too.

What ever happened to that MacArthur?

[Pollster]

Pulled our first survey of this race out of the field this morning, which of course means I'm working on the weekend. This poll was conducted half before the Warnock oppo dump and half after. Broad generalities, as usual:

-Toplines are close in both races, and fairly similar to the toplines from our first survey of the 2018 Secretary of State runoff.
-Self-ID Democrats are far more enthused to vote in the runoff than self-ID Republicans, which is a total flip from the numbers we saw in the general. However, Republicans still rate their likelihood to vote higher than Democrats, so the effect here seems to be a wash.
-Democrats are more likely to say that their party controlling the Senate in 2021 is very or somewhat important than Republicans.
-A plurality thinks that an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably be a good thing for the country, and modest majorities think an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably help unite the country and generate bipartisan cooperation.
-Warnock is in a far stronger position than Ossoff and leads Loeffler on all of the important candidate qualities (cares about people like me, is honest and trustworthy, shares my values, has the right qualifications and temperament). Ossoff is really struggling with qualifications and temperament and we are expecting "has a bright future, but just isn't ready yet"-style attacks.
-"Defund the police" is still a big problem for Democrats. Court packing, Green New Deal, and filibuster abolishment are not, and none fit into successful anti-Dem narratives the way that defunding the police does.
-QAnon and Marjorie Taylor Greene are massive problems for Loeffler (particularly among college educated and high income folks). Perdue doesn't have this problem (yet), another reason why he's much better positioned at this time. The issue for Dems will be working QAnon/MTG into a broader narrative against Loeffler effectively (something the party is famously bad at).
-Self-ID Republicans are split almost evenly on whether Trump should "remain in politics and run for President again" or "remain in politics but support a different candidate who shares his views." A good chunk say "retire from politics altogether," mostly Republican youth.

[OSR stands with Israel]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

If Democrats didnt go so hard on court packing, crazy sjw stuff they would do a better job getting the Never Trump republicans to vote for them down ballot.


Also on the economy, 49% of voters according to CNN exit polls thought the economy was good , while that number was 36% in 2016. Also without the pandemic, there would have been no economic crash(maybe a early 2000s style recession at worst) so its pretty hackish to blame the Republicans for the economy and the vast majority of voters agree with that. Also if Democrats want to bring up the economy, the fact is the recovery from this recession has been far better than the recovery from the Great Recession so if the Democrats want to bring up the economic crash , the Republicans can counter that the Trump recovery has been so much better than the Obama recovery and while I agree thats misleading so is blaming the Republicans for the crash. So really to be fair the economic crash should not be blamed on Republicans and they shouldnt get credit for the recovery better than 2009 because both claims are misleading.

Lastly here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-30/trump-s-economy-really-was-better-than-obama-s

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

If Democrats didnt go so hard on court packing, crazy sjw stuff they would do a better job getting the Never Trump republicans to vote for them down ballot.

AOC != the Democratic party led by Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden. Unfortunately, the media narrative seems to disagree.

Also on the economy, 49% of voters according to CNN exit polls thought the economy was good , while that number was 36% in 2016. Also without the pandemic, there would have been no economic crash(maybe a early 2000s style recession at worst) so its pretty hackish to blame the Republicans for the economy and the vast majority of voters agree with that. Also if Democrats want to bring up the economy, the fact is the recovery from this recession has been far better than the recovery from the Great Recession so if the Democrats want to bring up the economic crash , the Republicans can counter that the Trump recovery has been so much better than the Obama recovery and while I agree thats misleading so is blaming the Republicans for the crash. So really to be fair the economic crash should not be blamed on Republicans and they shouldnt get credit for the recovery better than 2009 because both claims are misleading.

I'm not blaming the Republicans for the crash, which obviously isn't nearly as bad as 2008. What I am blaming them for is their response to the crisis. Refusing to pass more stimulus is unforgiveable. The economy looks great in the medium-term but right now, businesses are still failing and families are still struggling to make ends meet. McConnell refusing to work with Mnuchin and Pelosi on that issue alone should disqualify him from being majority leader.

[OSR stands with Israel]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

If Democrats didnt go so hard on court packing, crazy sjw stuff they would do a better job getting the Never Trump republicans to vote for them down ballot.

AOC != the Democratic party led by Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden. Unfortunately, the media narrative seems to disagree.

Abigal Spanberger believes Democrats should have made it clear they opposed court packing and opposed defunding the policy. Instead Democratic Leadership dodged those questions and made it seem like they would go along with it, when they should have said no we oppose packing the courts and no we oppose defunding the police. Its not like this is new though, remember the tea party really hurt the GOP downballot in 2012 even to the non-tea party candidates .

Also on the economy, 49% of voters according to CNN exit polls thought the economy was good , while that number was 36% in 2016. Also without the pandemic, there would have been no economic crash(maybe a early 2000s style recession at worst) so its pretty hackish to blame the Republicans for the economy and the vast majority of voters agree with that. Also if Democrats want to bring up the economy, the fact is the recovery from this recession has been far better than the recovery from the Great Recession so if the Democrats want to bring up the economic crash , the Republicans can counter that the Trump recovery has been so much better than the Obama recovery and while I agree thats misleading so is blaming the Republicans for the crash. So really to be fair the economic crash should not be blamed on Republicans and they shouldnt get credit for the recovery better than 2009 because both claims are misleading.

I'm not blaming the Republicans for the crash, which obviously isn't nearly as bad as 2008. What I am blaming them for is their response to the crisis. Refusing to pass more stimulus is unforgiveable. The economy looks great in the medium-term but right now, businesses are still failing and families are still struggling to make ends meet. McConnell refusing to work with Mnuchin and Pelosi on that issue alone should disqualify him from being majority leader.

The Democrats though did talk about how this is the worst recession since the depression, how Trump is the first president since Hoover to lose jobs which made their arguments on the economy seem disingenuous to the voters. If they instead made their economy argument about the stimulus like you said maybe they would have done better on the issue of the economy.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

-"Defund the police" is still a big problem for Democrats. Court packing, Green New Deal, and filibuster abolishment are not, and none fit into successful anti-Dem narratives the way that defunding the police does.

So, if Biden wants to get any legislation passed at all in his Presidency, maybe he should try do something like this:

1) Over the next week or two, come out with a major plan to "Fund and Reform the Police."
2) The core of this would be some sort of federal legislation to increase funding for the police, but direct the funding towards things like funding better and more extensive training across the nation for police in how to react well in difficult situations and avoid resorting to excessive violence in situations where that is not appropriate and the like especially in the context of race, i.e. to better avoid situations in which police have killed innocent black people unnecessarily. Also throw in other stuff like raising police salaries with federal matching funds etc.
3) Biden goes down to Georgia and announces his "Fund and Reform the Police" legislation/plan, and Biden emphasizes that his plan to Fund the Police is his number one legislative priority other than handling COVID and COVID relief (and this COVID relief, btw, is branded as "Funding Firefighters and Teachers" and the like - so Biden wants to Fund the Police, fund Firefighters, Fund Teachers). Get Warnock and Ossoff there as well and keep talking about how they support Biden's plan to Fund the Police etc, and get the whole Democratic party talking about this. When talking to progressives, the "and reform" aspect of this can be emphasized, whereas in other contexts the "fund" aspect can be emphasized.
4) Ask Perdue/Loeffler if they support Biden's plan to Fund the Police.
5) Even if they support it, which they won't (at least not entirely with a blank check no questions asked endorsement), attack Perdue/Loeffler for their opposition to funding the police. Run a bunch of messaging saying that Perdue and Loeffler have come out against funding the police and consequently they want to defund the police. Anything other than full-throated endorsement of Biden's particular plan to fund the police amounts to wanting to defund the police. Whereas Biden's top non-COVID priority is to make sure the police are well funded (and reformed), and if you elect Warnock/Ossoff, that is what they will work with Biden to do. Keep repeating this endlessly, the same message about funding the police, until the runoff. Just hammer it, then hammer it again, and then hammer it again, and then hammer it again, and then hammer it again, and then... you get the picture.

IDK if this would work, but it seems like the alternative is that nothing of significance except some executive orders will happen in Biden's presidency. So seems like it is worth a shot.

[MT Treasurer]

I hate saying this even if it’s been more common since the polling debacle this year, but I’m not sure I’ll let any poll of this race (especially one showing a wide gap between the two races) factor into my prediction, especially given the remaining uncertainty with regard to the turnout patterns of various demographic groups/voter blocs within the parties.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

snip

Anyway, this is getting off topic. My point is that Republican elected officials in congress have shown they don't have the judgement to be trusted with power. Not convicting the president and forcing through ACB while holding up Gorsuch proves they aren't trustworthy or moral people. Moreover, they will never change and improve unless they lose power. Therefore, it's incredibly naïve for NeverTrumpers to vote Republican downballot.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Not wanting a Dem trifecta is the height of madness.

We already know exactly what McConnell is going to do.  We already know exactly where this country is going.  The Senate Republicans are beyond salvation.  They won't even recognize that Biden won the election!  The Biden presidency is going to begin with Senate Republicans refusing to pass any COVID stimulus package, and that will be the first in a series of actions intended to intentionally destroy America, so that they can blame it on Biden.  And just like with Obama, dummy Americans will believe it.  "Oh, he didn't have a good relationship with Congress.  He wasn't a good compromiser."

If it makes Biden a one term president, good.

How about, I don't know, actually running the country and doing good things for people?

Is it worth letting thousands of small businesses go under, and millions of people loses their jobs and go bankrupt, if it helps Biden lose in 2024?

Has your party ever considered engaging in politics in an honest and productive way, where both sides try to do good things for America, and whichever party does more good things wins?

[Suburbia]

Tom Cotton is attacking Warnock, saying that he hates police and military, tying Warnock with Jeremiah Wright.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thzbhc4SWoU

[7,052,770]

Tom Cotton is attacking Warnock, saying that he hates police and military, tying Warnock with Jeremiah Wright.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thzbhc4SWoU

Who even remembers who Jeremiah Wright is?

[SCNCmod]

Pulled our first survey of this race out of the field this morning, which of course means I'm working on the weekend. This poll was conducted half before the Warnock oppo dump and half after. Broad generalities, as usual:

-Toplines are close in both races, and fairly similar to the toplines from our first survey of the 2018 Secretary of State runoff.
-Self-ID Democrats are far more enthused to vote in the runoff than self-ID Republicans, which is a total flip from the numbers we saw in the general. However, Republicans still rate their likelihood to vote higher than Democrats, so the effect here seems to be a wash.
-Democrats are more likely to say that their party controlling the Senate in 2021 is very or somewhat important than Republicans.
-A plurality thinks that an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably be a good thing for the country, and modest majorities think an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably help unite the country and generate bipartisan cooperation.
-Warnock is in a far stronger position than Ossoff and leads Loeffler on all of the important candidate qualities (cares about people like me, is honest and trustworthy, shares my values, has the right qualifications and temperament). Ossoff is really struggling with qualifications and temperament and we are expecting "has a bright future, but just isn't ready yet"-style attacks.
-"Defund the police" is still a big problem for Democrats. Court packing, Green New Deal, and filibuster abolishment are not, and none fit into successful anti-Dem narratives the way that defunding the police does.
-QAnon and Marjorie Taylor Greene are massive problems for Loeffler (particularly among college educated and high income folks). Perdue doesn't have this problem (yet), another reason why he's much better positioned at this time. The issue for Dems will be working QAnon/MTG into a broader narrative against Loeffler effectively (something the party is famously bad at).
-Self-ID Republicans are split almost evenly on whether Trump should "remain in politics and run for President again" or "remain in politics but support a different candidate who shares his views." A good chunk say "retire from politics altogether," mostly Republican youth.

1) Do you have any way of gauging whether or not the poll indicates that Black turnout in the runoff will be proportionally higher than the general election % of voters (Due to the potential of Georgia's 1st black Senator?

2) Any indication regarding likely method of voting among various demographics?

3) Any idea or indication regarding what % of general election voters are expected to vote in the runoff?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I already predicted Ossoff and Warnock winning and Warnock losing in 2022, so the D's can tie the Senate

[MargieCat]

Loeffler is such a joke, that it would probably be better for the GOP to have Warnock win and challenge him in 2022 with a more competent candidate.

If she wins, she is going to be incredibly vulnerable in 2022. And I think she is favored to defeat Warnock at this point.

[VBM]

Not wanting a Dem trifecta is the height of madness.

We already know exactly what McConnell is going to do.  We already know exactly where this country is going.  The Senate Republicans are beyond salvation.  They won't even recognize that Biden won the election!  The Biden presidency is going to begin with Senate Republicans refusing to pass any COVID stimulus package, and that will be the first in a series of actions intended to intentionally destroy America, so that they can blame it on Biden.  And just like with Obama, dummy Americans will believe it.  "Oh, he didn't have a good relationship with Congress.  He wasn't a good compromiser."

If it makes Biden a one term president, good.

Congratulations, you are now officially a HP

[Tender Branson]

The good thing for Dems:

Only 5 million of GA's 7.6 million (apparent*) registered voters voted in the GE.

Which means 2.6 million (apparent*) registered voters did not and are up for grabs.

The bad thing for Dems:

Turnout in runoffs is almost always lower than in the GE. But who knows, maybe Dems are more fired up now that control of the Senate is possible.

I still think that sadly at least one of them will end up voting R, if not both ...

---

* apparent, because I'm not sure if there are 7.6 million registered voters in GA. There are probably a lot of fake people on this list, who are either dead or have long moved out of the state. 7.6 million would be more than the Census estimates of voting-age persons in the state, which is impossible.

[EastwoodS]

Not wanting a Dem trifecta is the height of madness.

We already know exactly what McConnell is going to do.  We already know exactly where this country is going.  The Senate Republicans are beyond salvation.  They won't even recognize that Biden won the election!  The Biden presidency is going to begin with Senate Republicans refusing to pass any COVID stimulus package, and that will be the first in a series of actions intended to intentionally destroy America, so that they can blame it on Biden.  And just like with Obama, dummy Americans will believe it.  "Oh, he didn't have a good relationship with Congress.  He wasn't a good compromiser."

If it makes Biden a one term president, good.

Congratulations, you are now officially a HP

Sorry, Bro, but seeing any Democrat occupy the White House makes me want to vomit.

[Rookie Yinzer]

* apparent, because I'm not sure if there are 7.6 million registered voters in GA. There are probably a lot of fake people on this list, who are either dead or have long moved out of the state. 7.6 million would be more than the Census estimates of voting-age persons in the state, which is impossible.

98% of the VAP in Georgia is registered to vote. It is not impossible.

[QAnonKelly]

I was listening to Hacks on Tap and Mike Murphy made an interesting point about this. Between the 4, there's not really a superstar candidate. He says all the R senators hate Perdue, Loeffler has so damaged herself, Ossoff and Warnock are okay but inexperienced. At this point, it's a game of enthusiasm. I def think Warnock is probably the best candidate at this point because the Collins/Loeffler slugfest.

[wbrocks67]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

[brucejoel99]

Seems to have gone unnoticed but Klain announced on Meet the Press this morning that Biden will be campaigning in GA ahead of the runoffs.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seems to have gone unnoticed but Klain announced on Meet the Press this morning that Biden will be campaigning in GA ahead of the runoffs.

It's a slow start.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.