Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How did Warnock become the "winner" in the first place? Is he some kind of institution? I know he rose to national attention when he delivered the benediction at the public prayer service at the second inauguration of Barack Obama. But is that the only reason that made him the frontrunner? As far as I know he has never hold any political post. 🤷🏼

[It’s so Joever]

How did Warnock become the "winner" in the first place? Is he some kind of institution? I know he rose to national attention when he delivered the benediction at the public prayer service at the second inauguration of Barack Obama. But is that the only reason that made him the frontrunner? As far as I know he has never hold any political post. 🤷🏼

He is a charismatic black pastor in Georgia.

[It’s so Joever]

Will we get any polling of the runoff race?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Will we get any polling of the runoff race?

There is a Remington poll on the polling sub-forum, with Loeffler +1 and Perdue +4.

Anyway, here is my take on the race.

Realistically both of these races are lean R, and perhaps more realistically likely R. But anyway, it is not a tossup (at best it would be tilt R, though Lean R is more defensible I would say). This is barring unforeseen events that change the dynamic in a significant way, which could possibly include Trump's behavior.

In 2008 Georgia had a similar runoff election for Senate, which is instructive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

In the General, Obama did as well as any Dem had in a long time in Georgia, and the Dem Senate candidate out-performed Obama and was only behind by 3 points to Saxby Chambliss. Note that is not far from how much Perdue came ahead of Ossoff in the 2020 General, and also not far from the D-R split in the Warnock-Loeffler race if you add all the minor candidates together.

Then in the runoff, the polls were like this:

Source    Date    Chambliss (R)    Martin (D)
Rasmussen Reports    November 18, 2008    50%    46%
Public Policy Polling    November 23, 2008    52%    46%
Public Policy Polling    November 30, 2008    53%    46%

Those suggested that although Chambliss would be expected to win, the race should at least be reasonably competitive. And who knows, maybe if the voters who voted enthusiastically for Obama turned up to support the President, maybe they could pull off an upset.

But what were the actual results? Chambliss won 57.4% - 42.6%. It wasn't even close, it was a blowout, by more than the polls said.

Yes, it is true that the Dem coalition is somewhat more favorable for low turnout elections now than it was then, and that will make a bit of a difference. But how much difference, exactly, are you expecting? It is going to be maybe a few points at most, not some massive difference.

The change in the coalitions also means that Dems are reliant on support from white suburbanite voters to have any chance of winning in Georgia. Those voters are fickle, and for a good number of them, their votes were probably more anti-Trump than pro-Biden (and more anti-Trumpist-Republican in general than pro-Democrat).

Sure, Dems will retain some support from these sorts of voters in the runoffs, but how much exactly? Remember that Biden only barely won Georgia, and that both Ossoff and Warnock (obviously due to # of candidates) underperformed Biden. You only need a very small number of those suburban white voters who used to vote R but disliked Trump to peel off in order for these runoffs to go R. A good number of these voters will be susceptible to "check on Biden" nonsense messaging (and then, subsequently will blame Biden when Biden either gets nothing done or alternatively resorts to 'overreaching executive orders,' but that is another story).

And will Black and young Democratic base voters turn out in the runoff? Sure, some probably will, but an awful lot will not.

Yes, there will also be drop-off among the Republican base, but they have more of a reason to vote to stop Biden, whereas the Dems will be (relatively) more complacent. Remember that for a lot of low info voters, all that matters is the President. People think the President is more powerful/more important than in reality, and a lot of those low information and not particularly political/motivated voters will think (not that they will really be thinking too hard about it in the first place) "Biden won, Trump is gone" and conclude that their work here is done, why bother showing up again for a runoff?

Remember that the reason why Georgia and other southern states have runoffs in the first place is to suppress black voters. They have been historically successful at doing that, and there is every reason to believe they will continue to be successful at doing that.

Overall, it would probably be more surprising if Warnock/Ossoff win than if Perdue/Loeffler win by more than 5 points. Set your expectations accordingly.

[Astatine]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

[BudgieForce]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

It's why I think there's a serious chance at a Warnock/Perdue split win. Whats the ultimate centrist thing to do? Voting for a democrat and a republican at the same time.

[Kuumo]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

Probably relatively high. A lot of the suburbanites who delivered the state to Biden are likely to stay home or vote for at least Perdue since "OrAnGE mAN iS GoNE, sO rEpUBliCAns ArE OKay NoW." President Trump had a big silver lining for Democrats because he motivated his opponents to turn out at levels that they didn't before. Unless Trump really digs his heels in insisting that he won the election and starts completely sabotaging everything he can for the next two months (a real possibility), Perdue and Loeffler will win by surprisingly large margins in the runoff.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

Tell him McConnell will not let the government function if he is majority leader

[Crumpets]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

Probably relatively high. A lot of the suburbanites who delivered the state to Biden are likely to stay home or vote for at least Perdue since "OrAnGE mAN iS GoNE, sO rEpUBliCAns ArE OKay NoW." President Trump had a big silver lining for Democrats because he motivated his opponents to turn out at levels that they didn't before. Unless Trump really digs his heels in insisting that he won the election and starts completely sabotaging everything he can for the next two months (a real possibility), Perdue and Loeffler will win by surprisingly large margins in the runoff.

Although, if they were split-ticket Biden-Republican downballot voters, staying home might still be a net positive for the Democrats, even if it's not as good as getting them to switch to voting for Warnock and Ossoff.

[SCNCmod]

...
In 2008 Georgia had a similar runoff election for Senate, which is instructive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia
...
But what were the actual results? Chambliss won 57.4% - 42.6%. It wasn't even close, it was a blowout, by more than the polls said.
...
...
...
And will Black and young Democratic base voters turn out in the runoff? Sure, some probably will, but an awful lot will not.
...

A closer runoff (than 2008) is the 2018 Secr of State runoff. The Republican went into runoff with a small lead.  What was the runoff result:
Republican: 51.9
Democrat:  48.1

In that 2018 election, 38% of general election voters turned out for the runoff.

...

And while it's true that Black turnout in prior runoff elections dropped off considerably- there is a big difference this year- There is a Black candidate on the ballot (with a chance to be the 1st Black Senator from Georgia)... and I think the first Black candidate to win a statewide election in Georgia.  Also, the possibility that the first Black VP would be the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

So I would argue the game-changer is that Black turnout will be sky high in the 2020 runoff.  There were around 1.6 Million Black voters in the Georgia general election.  Even if turnout is as high as 78% of total general election voters (double the % from the 2018 runoff)- The number of votes needed to win would be around 1.8 Million.  So super high Black turnout could put the election away for Dems. (Although black turnout has dropped off in past runoff years...I would not be at all surprised to see 90-95% turnout in the 2020 runoff among black voters who voted in the general election).

Also- Jon Ossoff being 33 years old... could help with youth vote turnout (at the very least, it won't hurt).

The other advantage for Dems is that they dominated the mail-in vote.  And mail-in voters are the most likely to be repeat voters in the runoff, due to the lack of (relative) time commitment required to vote by mail.  Additionally, Jan 5th is a very busy time of the year due to the holidays- which will likely impact same-day voter turnout (to some extent).

...

(Arguably), I think Dems winning the State for Biden, will provide a small turnout advantage over Republicans (since Dems were rewarded for their effort... while some Republicans may think their vote didn't matter).

So while I am comfortable to let the debate be decided by the actual runoff results... I think Dems definitely have reason to be optimistic (of course, assuming they run a diligent and smart runoff campaign). But I am very confident that one party will win both Senate Seats, despite a marginal number of potential split voters.

[SCNCmod]

How did Warnock become the "winner" in the first place? Is he some kind of institution? I know he rose to national attention when he delivered the benediction at the public prayer service at the second inauguration of Barack Obama. But is that the only reason that made him the frontrunner? As far as I know he has never hold any political post. 🤷🏼

Warnock has been Senior Pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta (founded in 1886) for almost 20 years. According to wiki, he's only the 5th to serve that position. Who are 2 of the others... Martin Luther King Sr & Martin Luther King, Jr (who was Pastor at the time of his assassination).  

The funerals of both Martin Luther King, Jr & John Lewis were held at Ebenezer.

So being Paster of such an Iconic Chuch with an extremely rich Political History ... is both very influential & inherently Political (especially considering how central Black Churches are to African American politics in the South).  

....In 2014, Warnock was central to the political push to get Georgia to accept the expansion of Medicaid, under Obamacare.

....From 2017- Jan 2020, Warnock Chaired Stacey Abrams' voter registration organization- "New Georgia Project"... (experience that will come in handy in turning out voters for the runoff).

Also- Warnock has a compelling backstory... Growing up in Savannah in public housing. He was one of 11 kids, whose father was a mechanic & WWII veteran (both parents were also Pastors).  He went on to graduate from (HBCU) Morehouse College in Atlanta, and then got his Masters of Divinity at Columbia University in NYC (Union Theological)... so a good educational resume as well.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How did Warnock become the "winner" in the first place? Is he some kind of institution? I know he rose to national attention when he delivered the benediction at the public prayer service at the second inauguration of Barack Obama. But is that the only reason that made him the frontrunner? As far as I know he has never hold any political post. 🤷🏼

Warnock has been Senior Pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta (founded in 1886) for almost 20 years. According to wiki, he's only the 5th to serve that position. Who are 2 of the others... Martin Luther King Sr & Martin Luther King, Jr (who was Pastor at the time of his assassination).   

The funerals of both Martin Luther King, Jr & John Lewis were held at Ebenezer.

So being Paster of such an Iconic Chuch with an extremely rich Political History ... is both very influential & inherently Political (especially considering how central Black Churches are to African American politics in the South).

Then let's hope that that he is going to win the runoff.

[MT Treasurer]

Gonna be honest. Don't care.

I don’t think you or any other red avatar on this forum is the intended target audience here.

[lfromnj]

Gonna be honest. Don't care.

I don’t think you or any other red avatar on this forum is the intended target audience here.

Tbf the ad didn't even get ray Goldfield so its probably not that effective, at least at that aspect, might juice up the evangelicals though.

[VAR]

I mean, if Queen Kelly successfully conned the low-propensity hicks, why wouldn't they turn out for her?

[wbrocks67]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

I really don't get people. So they voted for all 3 in the original race but ... now don't want a Dem trifecta?? Huh?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Not wanting a Dem trifecta is the height of madness.

We already know exactly what McConnell is going to do.  We already know exactly where this country is going.  The Senate Republicans are beyond salvation.  They won't even recognize that Biden won the election!  The Biden presidency is going to begin with Senate Republicans refusing to pass any COVID stimulus package, and that will be the first in a series of actions intended to intentionally destroy America, so that they can blame it on Biden.  And just like with Obama, dummy Americans will believe it.  "Oh, he didn't have a good relationship with Congress.  He wasn't a good compromiser."

[EastwoodS]

Not wanting a Dem trifecta is the height of madness.

We already know exactly what McConnell is going to do.  We already know exactly where this country is going.  The Senate Republicans are beyond salvation.  They won't even recognize that Biden won the election!  The Biden presidency is going to begin with Senate Republicans refusing to pass any COVID stimulus package, and that will be the first in a series of actions intended to intentionally destroy America, so that they can blame it on Biden.  And just like with Obama, dummy Americans will believe it.  "Oh, he didn't have a good relationship with Congress.  He wasn't a good compromiser."

If it makes Biden a one term president, good.

[Frenchrepublican]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

I really don't get people. So they voted for all 3 in the original race but ... now don't want a Dem trifecta?? Huh?

Court packing + 3.5$ trillons public spendings in more + massive tax increases + Green new deal

[MT Treasurer]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta, and (2) a competent Republican presidential candidate almost certainly would have won this election, which would have made the down-ballot results for Democrats seem like far less of an underperformance than they actually were (it was Trump who underperformed the fundamentals in 2016, it was Trump who threw away a winnable election in 2020). It’s not that difficult to understand?

This will probably be relatively close in the end and come down to turnout patterns more than actual persuasion, but it’s not that hard to envision a Biden/Perdue or even Biden/Loeffler voter in this race -- certainly far easier than a Trump/Ossoff or Trump/Warnock voter. Republicans' biggest fear should be Trump voters in rural/small-town GA staying home, although I’m still expecting enough of them to turn out for Perdue/Loeffler to allow them to win by 3-4 points in January.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A closer runoff (than 2008) is the 2018 Secr of State runoff. The Republican went into runoff with a small lead.  What was the runoff result:
Republican: 51.9
Democrat:  48.1

I hope you are right, but I don't think you are. The crucical thing that you are not giving enough attention here is that in 2018, Trump was President, and Democrats were motivated to turn out to vote against Trump. People would vote Dem even in totally unrelated races such as GA SOS as a way of expressing anti-Trump sentiment. Runoff elections are pretty much like Special Elections, and it is normal for whichever party does not control the White House to do relatively well in special elections. Moreover, this was not a new phenomenon with Trump; with previous Presidents the party out-of-the-White House also does well in Specials/Runoffs.

Also note that even in this runoff from 2018, the GOP won...

And while it's true that Black turnout in prior runoff elections dropped off considerably- there is a big difference this year- There is a Black candidate on the ballot (with a chance to be the 1st Black Senator from Georgia)... and I think the first Black candidate to win a statewide election in Georgia.  Also, the possibility that the first Black VP would be the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

So I would argue the game-changer is that Black turnout will be sky high in the 2020 runoff.

In the 2008 Senate runoff, black voters had a chance to support the first African American President, Obama, shortly after his initial election and with all the excitement surrounding that in recent memory. Under such circumstances you would think that Black turnout would be relatively high. And yet, African American turnout in the runoff was low.

Also, think back as recently as 2018. There was a black candidate at the top of the ticket for Governor (Stacey Abrams). Yes, black turnout was good in 2018 for a midterm. But it still was not at fully Presidential levels, and as a result Abrams narrowly fell short. I would similarly not be too surprised if Black turnout were relatively good for a runoff, but in order for Dems to win, Black turnout needs to be better than just relatively good for a runoff. You need to hit similar %s of the electorate being African American as in a Presidential election like what we just had.

The other advantage for Dems is that they dominated the mail-in vote.  And mail-in voters are the most likely to be repeat voters in the runoff, due to the lack of (relative) time commitment required to vote by mail.  Additionally, Jan 5th is a very busy time of the year due to the holidays- which will likely impact same-day voter turnout (to some extent).

I agree, this is a good point. It is plausible that Dems could get higher than normal turnout due to the relative ease of voting by mail, especially if people are already getting sent ballots. If there is any chance of winning, I would say the chance would have to rely heavily on this. Dems need super-aggressive and super-effective vote by mail mobilization. Hopefully lots of resources are dumped into that, rather than just into ineffective TV ad spam. However, remember that in the election we just had, a lot of the votes were cast in person (early in person voting) also, not just mail...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

[Frenchrepublican]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

Not sure that turning the US into a one party state is a very compelling message to seduce center right voters.

[MillennialModerate]

This race annoys me. I don’t want my hopes up. There is no shot

Look at the spending .... 47M to 8m

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

Not sure that turning the US into a one party state is a very compelling message to seduce center right voters.

The looming prospect of what the other side would do in that time is going to convince a lot of people to have a very short memory. This is partially why I actually do expect a lot of suburban snap back towards the Republicans, though not necessarily in Georgia.