Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

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Democrats need to go all in here

Gotta identify 2,000,000 or more registered voters likely to vote for Ossoff/Warnock and make sure they get to the polls.

And for the love of god never let Qelly Loeffler live down her Q connections. She made her bed and must now lie in it.

anti -Qanon does not seem like a good thing to run on, Joe Rae Perkins is actually running ahead of Trump in metro Portland .This would just let Loeffler pivot to other stuff. Just attack her for the early stuff about the coronavirus stock stuff.

I doubt it's good for her, seems more likely that it's some stupid #chexnbalances move from Never Trumpers who don't know who she is. I think it might be a wash though.

I don't doubt that most Republican voters are fine with all the QAnon stuff, but "You are endorsing QAnon if you vote for Qelly Loeffler" and "She proudly claims to be the most conservative and most pro-Trump senator" should be winning arguments in a state that just voted for Biden.

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Other key questions:

• Do Hazel voters bother to come out at all?
• Do Collins supporters bother to come out for Loeffler? (Answer, probably yes to save Perdue, but do any of them leave the other race blank?)
• Is there a significant number of people who didn't vote in November but can be turned out to vote Democratic in January?
• Can Warnock and Ossoff successfully convince anyone who voted for just one of them to also vote for the other, or will campaigning in unison too much just turn off said voters?
• Do voters who picked a candidate other than Warnock, Loeffler, or Collins come out and vote?

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So why is this runoff in January instead of 3 weeks from now? I can only assume Republicans set it that way intentionally?

Although ironically, it may benefit Democrats to give Trump more time to hang the whole Republican Party in the eyes of the voters.

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Tom Cotton is attacking Warnock, saying that he hates police and military, tying Warnock with Jeremiah Wright.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thzbhc4SWoU

Who even remembers who Jeremiah Wright is?

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How in the world can someone who voted for Joe Biden vote for someone who uses the term "Deep State" unironically? And why does Qelly Loeffler think that going full-on batsh**t QAnon is going to help her win in a suddenly Blue State?

I was sure she'd drop all that nonsense and run back to the center, since the crazies are going to turn out and vote for her over Warnock anyway, but I guess she just is that much of a lunatic.

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^^ These are the few persuadable voters out there. Anyone who voted Biden has to be disgusted by Trump's actions and Perdue & Qelly's enabling of it.

Yes, this is a turnout election primarily, but W & O have to identify who these suburban Biden/GOP voters are and get them to reconsider.

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If Democrats don't spend the next 2 years reminding suburbanites that a vote for ANY Republican is a vote to enable people like Greene, they don't deserve to get shut out 435-0 in 2022.

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Never let her live this down.

David Perdue, to his credit, never debased himself like this.

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Are you guys going to tie Paul Gosar to Kelly's future opponent too? Or maybe Chemtrail Kelli?

IA Dems must be feeling sad that they didn't tie Steve King to Joni Ernst. It would've been an easy pickup if they did, amirite?

Did Ernst campaign with Steve King? If she did, it was campaign malpractice for Greenfield not to tie her with him.

I could see MTG attacks on Perdue not really sticking, but Lqeffler has made her bed and must now face the consequences.

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Are you guys going to tie Paul Gosar to Kelly's future opponent too? Or maybe Chemtrail Kelli?

IA Dems must be feeling sad that they didn't tie Steve King to Joni Ernst. It would've been an easy pickup if they did, amirite?

Did Ernst campaign with Steve King? If she did, it was campaign malpractice for Greenfield not to tie her with him.

She did, actually, at one point.

Interesting. Marjorie Green, and by extension Qelly Loeffler, are much worse than Steve King. It's one thing to be racist, it's another to be a racist and also say that Jews Democrats drink the blood of children.

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https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1330575153428897797

Lqeffler spends 2020 absolutely debasing herself in a way that goes above and beyond what most Republicans are doing for Trump, and this is how the Trump campaign thanks her.

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If D's assume the majority DURBIN will be Chairman of Judiciary and usher in DC Statehood, victory

DC is a bit more complicated for various reasons... But I think it's crazy that there is any debate regarding Puerto Rico's right to statehood.  For a long time now, Puerto Rico becoming the 51st state seemed to be almost a foregone conclusion (long before it became such a politicized issue).
 

Except that Puerto Ricans are very divided on the issue, you have those who want independance, those who want to keep the statu quo and those who want to become a state.

At the moment no opinion is majoritarian so the situation is gridlocked

52-48 is a majority. That should be good enough, but one party doesn't want to create a state that might vote Democratic, and that is literally the entire reason given by the current president and senate majority leader.

Never mind that it would probably be a swing-ish state, especially with Trump's gains with Latinos, and it's not clear whether the anti-statehood people (who are mostly Democratic) would be able to drop all of that opposition, get candidates together, and mobilize their voters. It's quite plausible that Puerto Rico sends two Republicans to the Senate at first and eventually settles into a blue-leaning purple state later.

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If D's assume the majority DURBIN will be Chairman of Judiciary and usher in DC Statehood, victory

This but ironically

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It may not matter. Republicans are supercharged now and contrary to what every liberal is saying here African American Turnout will not be deciding factor in my view.

Are they? It seems like they're pretty deflated and irreparably split on whether or not the whole 2020 election was fake.

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It may not matter. Republicans are supercharged now and contrary to what every liberal is saying here African American Turnout will not be deciding factor in my view.

Are they? It seems like they're pretty deflated and irreparably split on whether or not the whole 2020 election was fake.

No, they ain't. They know what's at stake!

You do. But what about all the Republicans who think the election is rigged and there's no point in voting? And conversely, what about all the Republican who are mortified by Trump's refusal to concede and by Lqeffler/Perdue's enabling of it?

The Democratic path is much more straightforward - just get a good turnout from a united bunch. Republicans have to thread a needle through a bunch of wide, diverse and in some cases diametrically opposed groups who are either despondent about Trump's loss, or about Trump's reaction to his loss.

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All Perdue-Warnock voters are sexists or just dumb.

/s ?

No, I'm serious. Perdue isn't fundamentally different than Loeffler.

He didn't campaign with Marjqrie Green

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If totally true as described, Lean Perdue -> Likely Ossoff

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If totally true as described, Lean Perdue -> Likely Ossoff

Do you think GA-SPECIAL is likely Warnock?

No, but if Perdue is about to be busted by the FBI (assuming Ossoff's description isn't false or spin), he's pretty unlikely to win.

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Well those two races are safe R now.

No, Perdue's race is Safe R because Atlanta suburbanites LOVE corruption, racist dog whistles, and a senator who votes with his party like 100% of the time. But Loeffler's race is a toss-up at best for Republicans because she's a shrill extremist who campaigned with Greene.

#sexism #analysis

No you see harry keeping calling qoeffler is gonna totally work rather than you know attacking the multi millionaire on insider trading.

No, it's either Qelly (keeping the pronunciation the same) or Lqeffler (changing the Os to Qs).

If I ever post something nonsensical like "Qoeffler," I have gone senile and should be mercy-banned.

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I’m sorry to ask a question that’s probably been addressed multiple times already, but I only found this out today....

Why are the runoffs AFTER the new Congress is seated? Who came up with that?

This is a Jim Crow era rule to prevent candidates from winning with Black support, basically. The runoffs used to be in December, but I think a lawsuit forced Georgia to move the federal runoffs to January.

Yeah, I know all about the racial motivations behind runoffs, but a runoff in Jan. after the new Congress is seated? So the seats will actually be vacant for a couple days? Perdue and Loeffler won’t be incumbents on Election Day?

Georgia could avoid this if they did like Louisiana does and lets overseas voters vote a contingent ballot for the runoff. The runoff in LA-5 is next Saturday (December 5).

Or they could do RCV and have this solved on Election Night.

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NYT out with an analysis of Perdue's wealth portfolio and it ain't pretty.

Is it too radical to suggest that all members of Congress be required to put their assets into blind trusts? There's just too much opportunity for impropriety of the appearance of.

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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146

This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

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IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

[7,052,770]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

As has been discussed extensively here, it only takes 50+VP votes to change the filibuster rules. Just like Republicans used a simple majority to change the filibuster rules for confirming Supreme Court justices (but kept the rules in place for everything else) in 2017, Democrats can and will use a simple majority to change the filibuster rules for the admission of new states (but keep the rules in place for everything else) in 2021 if they win the 2 Georgia seats.

DC will then be admitted 50-50 with Kamala breaking the tie, and Puerto Rico will be admitted later in 2021 assuming the terms are all hashed out with the Puerto Rican government, but that one will be something like 72-30 or maybe even unanimous.

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It's so pathetic how they dance around the fact that Trump lost but can't say it.

Sorry, Qelly, but you don't "lose the country" even if W & O win if Trump does too. The "lose the country" only applies under a Biden presidency. So you know it and imply it, but still can't just say it.