Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[pppolitics]

If the Affordable Care Act gets strike down, oh boy...

There will be a lot of very angry Georgians heading to the poll

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/loeffler-perdue-georgia-secretary-state-resign-435484

Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue of Georgia called on the state’s GOP secretary of state to resign on Monday, citing “failures” in the election process but not providing any specific evidence to support their claims.

“There have been too many failures in Georgia elections this year and the most recent election has shined a national light on the problems,” Loeffler and Perdue said in a joint statement. “The Secretary of State has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections. He has failed the people of Georgia, and he should step down immediately."

....


Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger responded in a statement Monday saying he would not resign, and defended his office's handling of the election. He said the election was a "resounding success" from an administration perspective. He highlighted his office's briefings and updates to argue that they had conducted the process with transparency.

"I know emotions are running high. Politics are involved in everything right now," Raffensperger said. "If I was Senator Perdue, I’d be irritated I was in a runoff. And both Senators and I are all unhappy with the potential outcome for our President. But I am the duly elected Secretary of State. One of my duties involves helping to run elections for all Georgia voters. I have taken that oath, and I will execute that duty and follow Georgia law."

Raffensperger said the process for reporting results in the state was orderly and followed the law. And he added that while he was "sure" there were illegal votes cast, it was "unlikely" that there total rose to the "numbers or margin necessary to change the outcome" of the election.

He also took a shot at Perdue and Loeffler for their criticism: "As a Republican, I am concerned about Republicans keeping the U.S. Senate. I recommend that Senators Loeffler and Perdue start focusing on that."

I'm not entirely sure why either Purdue or Loeffler think attacking Raffensperger is a winning move for them. Wouldn't that make more sense as something that Osoff or Warnock could attempt to do?

They're upset he isn't helping Trump to steal the Presidential election (Not that Trump winning Georgia alone would help him. Indeed, despite Biden's current lead in Georgia, the State remains uncalled) and trying to browbeat him into helping them win the runoffs instead of doing his job properly. As for why they think that'll help them electorally, I'd guess they think publicly making baseless accusations will help bring out their base and thus their election chances. Both the Republican and Democratic bases were already likely to be fully energized anyway and this sort of childish petulance will certainly energize the Democratic base just as much as it energizes the Republican base. Moreover, I would think this would hurt them with the few actual swing voters out there, which given how close these races are, swing voters will likely decide the election.

Still, I can come up with two reasons they both are doing this. First, they think they need to do this to keep Trump from backstabbing Republican efforts to help them if they are seen as insufficiently bootlicking loyal. Second, they wrongly either think this won't hurt their chances or that they have no chances, so they are preparing to be warmly supported by Trumpists even after a potential loss.

The first of these two reasons makes the most sense to me.  I can't see this helping their chances in the runoff, and while Trumpists are likely to continue supporting their Commander-in-cheeto for some time to come, I don't see any cheeto dust adhering to those who blindly support Trump right now. Moreover, the two Republicans have excellent chances in the runoffs.  Historically, Republican leaning voters tend to have greater participation rates in runoffs. Moreover, running as a check on President-elect Biden and Chuck Schumer, is probably the most potent message they have for persuading swing voters to either vote for them or at the very least not vote for their opponents. However, Trump has already entered into a Samson-in-the-temple mode, so they probably can't openly run on being a check against Biden without earning the ire of the Big Cheetor, since it would imply they think Trump has lost.

If the Affordable Care Act gets strike down, oh boy...

There will be a lot of very angry Georgians heading to the poll

Even without worries about how it might affect elections, I would be surprised if the court issues a ruling before Georgians head to the polls.

[wbrocks67]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

[MasterJedi]

Sadly I see these as lean R now, hope I'm wrong. Don't worry I'm not going to doomer this thread about it lol

[Figueira]

Do you guys worry that Democrats will nationalize these races too much for their own good, kind of like what happened in ME?

This is a problem in places like Montana. In Georgia, as we saw in the presidential election, Democrats are capable of winning on their party's merits, as long as the turnout patterns are right.

Also, I don't think that's exactly what happened in Maine.

[wbrocks67]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

[brucejoel99]

So why is this runoff in January instead of 3 weeks from now? I can only assume Republicans set it that way intentionally?

Actually, it's because the Obama DOJ found that GA's previous federal runoff procedure (4 weeks after the 1st round) didn't comply with UOCAVA. It already takes a couple weeks to certify the 1st round's results in the 1st place, & then after that, federal law requires at least 45 days to ensure that eligible military & overseas voters can fully participate in a runoff. Hence, Jan. 5th.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

I think the whole lesson from this cycle is to never underestimate GOP enthusiasm

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have no confidence in my ability to predict anything. I clearly no very little about how this world works. I am hoping that Ossoff and Warnock wins, but I'm not confident. Warnock has a video where he is calling police thugs from 2015, which makes me think Georgia voters are going to be terrified and vote for Loeffler. The anti-Ossoff attacks have been pretty weak IMO, but Perdue still beat him by 2% in the initial election

[wbrocks67]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

I think the whole lesson from this cycle is to never underestimate GOP enthusiasm

True, but the results also tell a tale of surging Dem enthusiasm there as well now that it's officially a battleground.

The race is a tossup, though. Anyone who says otherwise is not being real.

[wbrocks67]

I have no confidence in my ability to predict anything. I clearly no very little about how this world works. I am hoping that Ossoff and Warnock wins, but I'm not confident. Warnock has a video where he is calling police thugs from 2015, which makes me think Georgia voters are going to be terrified and vote for Loeffler. The anti-Ossoff attacks have been pretty weak IMO, but Perdue still beat him by 2% in the initial election

It appears though that many of the Shane Hazel voters voted for Biden at the top, so a lot of those are likely gettable for Ossoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

I think the whole lesson from this cycle is to never underestimate GOP enthusiasm

True, but the results also tell a tale of surging Dem enthusiasm there as well now that it's officially a battleground.

The race is a tossup, though. Anyone who says otherwise is not being real.

I agree, at face value they are tossups, but my gut says they are lean or likely R based upon a lot of the disappointing Senate results

[Figueira]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

I think the whole lesson from this cycle is to never underestimate GOP enthusiasm

True, but the results also tell a tale of surging Dem enthusiasm there as well now that it's officially a battleground.

The race is a tossup, though. Anyone who says otherwise is not being real.

I agree, at face value they are tossups, but my gut says they are lean or likely R based upon a lot of the disappointing Senate results

Aside from Maine, none of the disappointing Senate results were in states that Biden won.

I would call these Tilt R for now though. It's hard to know who's actually going to vote in the runoffs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just wondering, if Warnock wins but Ossoff loses (something I think is extremely unlikely, tbh), could Democrats try to convince Murkowski to pull a Jim Jeffords and caucus with them? She'd go from being in an obstructionist majority to probably the single most powerful Senator, and she doesn't seem to be all that loyal to Mitch or the GOP.

Voting for Barrett indicated Murkowski was throwing her lot with the GOP completely, imo. 

Murkowski is also up in '22 in a Republican state, so she's staying R.  IMO, a more interesting idea is Susan Collins.  She's in a Democratic state and doesn't have to run again for six years.

[GALeftist]

Do people have any actual evidence for Libertarians breaking for Perdue and Loeffler or is that just a hunch? Results from GA-PRES seem to indicate most of them broke for Biden.

[Pyro]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

[SenatorCouzens]

Just wondering, if Warnock wins but Ossoff loses (something I think is extremely unlikely, tbh), could Democrats try to convince Murkowski to pull a Jim Jeffords and caucus with them? She'd go from being in an obstructionist majority to probably the single most powerful Senator, and she doesn't seem to be all that loyal to Mitch or the GOP.

Voting for Barrett indicated Murkowski was throwing her lot with the GOP completely, imo. 

Murkowski is also up in '22 in a Republican state, so she's staying R.  IMO, a more interesting idea is Susan Collins.  She's in a Democratic state and doesn't have to run again for six years.

The last several months, Susan Collins has been vilified and mocked by establishment Democrats as well as progressive activists (who poured millions into her state) as nothing more than a Trump stooge.

I think the odds of her becoming a Democrat and empowering Schumer, etc. at this point are about as likely as Calvin Coolidge and Ronald Reagan both rising from the dead and forming a socialist party.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Do people have any actual evidence for Libertarians breaking for Perdue and Loeffler or is that just a hunch? Results from GA-PRES seem to indicate most of them broke for Biden.

Idk about the voters but the candidate seems like a bit of a lunatic. I suppose that’s just standard fare for libertarians who aren’t just republicans.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, given that Perdue and Trump got nearly the same results, it would make sense that generally a majority of Shane Hazel voters went to Biden

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

Universal. Healthcare. And. Medicare. For. All. Are. Not. The. Same. Thing.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

Universal. Healthcare. And. Medicare. For. All. Are. Not. The. Same. Thing.

If you oppose M4A you oppose at least an avenue to achieve universal healthcare, yes?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

Universal. Healthcare. And. Medicare. For. All. Are. Not. The. Same. Thing.

If you oppose M4A you oppose at least an avenue to achieve universal healthcare, yes?

Sure. Because it's an incredibly intricate topic and the details matter. I've always supported universal, single-payer healthcare. That doesn't make M4A any less of a mess.

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

maybe he's saying that because he wants to win the state?

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

maybe he's saying that because he wants to win the state?

What does it say about our people that universal healthcare is a losing issue?