Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[AndyHogan14]

I think these races depend on 1) how unhinged Donald Trump gets over the next two months which will keep Democratic voters energized (some Trump voters may even be demoralized after the loss and not show up) and 2) what happens with the ACA case that is before the Supreme Court. If there is a decision or it seems likely that SCOTUS is going to strike down the ACA, I would say Dems have a very good chance.

[Benjamin Frank]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

[AndyHogan14]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

[2016]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

[Buzz]

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

[AndyHogan14]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that there will be too many Perdue-Warnock ticket splitters. As such, we are probably looking at a 52-48 GOP majority or a 50-50 Democratic majority. Like I said, it'll be a turnout game for both sides.

[2016]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that there will be too many Perdue-Warnock ticket splitters. As such, we are probably looking at a 52-48 GOP majority or a 50-50 Democratic majority. Like I said, it'll be a turnout game for both sides.

It could quite likely be that a lot of Republican suburban Voters who don't like Loeffler won't vote for her hence why Perdue wins and Loeffler loses because she underperforms.

[GALeftist]

Something interesting I've noticed: are we certain that the Libertarian vote is going to break for Perdue? Per NYT, Perdue's running 0.5% ahead of Trump, but Ossoff's running like 1.6% behind Biden. Shane Hazel is getting 2.3% of the Senate vote while Jorgensen's getting 1.24% of the presidential vote. This leads me to believe that about a third of Ossoff's underperformance (half a point) is Biden/Perdue voters and about two thirds (a point) is Biden/Hazel voters. This is obviously pretty counterintuitive, and I struggle to imagine that many Libertarians biting the bullet and voting for Biden and that few of them voting for Trump, but these data seem to suggest that this is the case.

Anyways, that seems to suggest to me that at least some of those Libertarians might be persuadable, at least to vote for Warnock, if not Ossoff as well. I don't know, though, I haven't been doing this nearly as long as some of y'all.

[7,052,770]

Other key questions:

• Do Hazel voters bother to come out at all?
• Do Collins supporters bother to come out for Loeffler? (Answer, probably yes to save Perdue, but do any of them leave the other race blank?)
• Is there a significant number of people who didn't vote in November but can be turned out to vote Democratic in January?
• Can Warnock and Ossoff successfully convince anyone who voted for just one of them to also vote for the other, or will campaigning in unison too much just turn off said voters?
• Do voters who picked a candidate other than Warnock, Loeffler, or Collins come out and vote?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really don’t think there will be a big gap between Perdue’s and Loeffler’s vote totals as some people are predicting.  If you look at the combined vote for Dem and GOP candidates in the special election, it is almost identical to Ossoff and Perdue’s vote in the regular election.  Unless it comes down to 1% or less, both seats are going the same way.

[Vespucci]

Just wondering, if Warnock wins but Ossoff loses (something I think is extremely unlikely, tbh), could Democrats try to convince Murkowski to pull a Jim Jeffords and caucus with them? She'd go from being in an obstructionist majority to probably the single most powerful Senator, and she doesn't seem to be all that loyal to Mitch or the GOP.

[SenatorCouzens]

Just wondering, if Warnock wins but Ossoff loses (something I think is extremely unlikely, tbh), could Democrats try to convince Murkowski to pull a Jim Jeffords and caucus with them? She'd go from being in an obstructionist majority to probably the single most powerful Senator, and she doesn't seem to be all that loyal to Mitch or the GOP.

Voting for Barrett indicated Murkowski was throwing her lot with the GOP completely, imo. 

[SenatorCouzens]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that there will be too many Perdue-Warnock ticket splitters. As such, we are probably looking at a 52-48 GOP majority or a 50-50 Democratic majority. Like I said, it'll be a turnout game for both sides.

It could quite likely be that a lot of Republican suburban Voters who don't like Loeffler won't vote for her hence why Perdue wins and Loeffler loses because she underperforms.

One could also imagine 1 or 2% of black voters who vote Warnock also voting for Perdue, the incumbent who is not particularly hated. In a razor tight race, this could matter. Although I agree with the consensus, this race is most likely a package deal.

[MT Treasurer]

Occam's razor: Split-ticket voting in a state with very few genuinely persuadable voters will be absolutely minimal after two months in which voters are reminded that both races will end up deciding control of the Senate, and Perdue's ‘superior candidate quality’/Loeffler's ‘inferior candidate quality’ will have a negligible to non-existent impact on the outcome. Unless either race is decided by <.4 points or something like that, there’s little to no chance of a split decision.

Once again:

Turnout patterns + composition of the electorate >>> ‘candidate quality’

[Horus]

Let us have a moment of silence for the poor Georgia voters who will be unable to watch broadcast or basic cable without having every other commercial be a political one until the runoffs are over.

Warnock's ads are calm and not really that bothersome but the other three? Yeah, it's gonna be ugly.

[President Johnson]

I think these races come down to who turns out. Usually you would say lower turnout helps Republicans, but they may just discouraged by Biden's victory, while Democrats are energized.

I wonder whether Loeffler and Perdue lose their mandate on January 3?

Just wondering, if Warnock wins but Ossoff loses (something I think is extremely unlikely, tbh), could Democrats try to convince Murkowski to pull a Jim Jeffords and caucus with them? She'd go from being in an obstructionist majority to probably the single most powerful Senator, and she doesn't seem to be all that loyal to Mitch or the GOP.

Voting for Barrett indicated Murkowski was throwing her lot with the GOP completely, imo. 

I agree. Though Murkowski would actually be smart to become an Independent caucusing with the Democrats if she plans to run for reelection. She will lose a Republican primary in 2022, and I'm not convinced she can pull another write-in win as in 2010. She'd be better off running as Independent while Democrats don't field an own candidate. Her approval among Democrats is even higher than among Republicans.

[Hope For A New Era]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

"historically" does not mean now.

Especially not when these are Libertarians and the Republican Party has become dramatically more authoritarian in recent years.

[Frenchrepublican]

Occam's razor: Split-ticket voting in a state with very few genuinely persuadable voters will be absolutely minimal after two months in which voters are reminded that both races will end up deciding control of the Senate, and Perdue's ‘superior candidate quality’/Loeffler's ‘inferior candidate quality’ will have a negligible to non-existent impact on the outcome. Unless either race is decided by <.4 points or something like that, there’s little to no chance of a split decision.

Once again:

Turnout patterns + composition of the electorate >>> ‘candidate quality’

I agree

[Frenchrepublican]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

"historically" does not mean now.

Especially not when these are Libertarians and the Republican Party has become dramatically more authoritarian in recent years.

Most people who voted libertarian in this race simply hate both large parties.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just want to point out even though Perdue "outperformed" Trump, he still only got 1000 more votes in total. The GA-Sen race just had more 3rd party vote, and well as some people who didn't do down ballot.

I also think anyone who says they "know" what's going to happen with these races is being really premature. Warnock is by no means bound to beat Loefeller, and Osoff by no means is bound to lose to Perdue; I'm sure they'll be a few voters who split ballot but not that many. A lot of this will also depend upon Trump's behavior, how nationalized these races are, and most importantly, turnout. We've never had a runoff situation like this where the runoffs are likely to decide control of the senate; expect both parties to throw tons of money here and the media to cover it intently. This really is unprecedented and it'll be very interesting to see what happens

[Mr. Smith]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that there will be too many Perdue-Warnock ticket splitters. As such, we are probably looking at a 52-48 GOP majority or a 50-50 Democratic majority. Like I said, it'll be a turnout game for both sides.

Turnout for one could surpass the other by enough to change the results.

[7,052,770]

So why is this runoff in January instead of 3 weeks from now? I can only assume Republicans set it that way intentionally?

Although ironically, it may benefit Democrats to give Trump more time to hang the whole Republican Party in the eyes of the voters.

[Buzz]

I am a bit worried because I am on several forums and I already see some republicans say they won’t vote in this because it’s “rigged” and their vote doesn’t matter.  Smfh

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I need to buy a dart board so I can figure out what my predictions for this race are

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/loeffler-perdue-georgia-secretary-state-resign-435484

Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue of Georgia called on the state’s GOP secretary of state to resign on Monday, citing “failures” in the election process but not providing any specific evidence to support their claims.

“There have been too many failures in Georgia elections this year and the most recent election has shined a national light on the problems,” Loeffler and Perdue said in a joint statement. “The Secretary of State has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections. He has failed the people of Georgia, and he should step down immediately."

....


Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger responded in a statement Monday saying he would not resign, and defended his office's handling of the election. He said the election was a "resounding success" from an administration perspective. He highlighted his office's briefings and updates to argue that they had conducted the process with transparency.

"I know emotions are running high. Politics are involved in everything right now," Raffensperger said. "If I was Senator Perdue, I’d be irritated I was in a runoff. And both Senators and I are all unhappy with the potential outcome for our President. But I am the duly elected Secretary of State. One of my duties involves helping to run elections for all Georgia voters. I have taken that oath, and I will execute that duty and follow Georgia law."

Raffensperger said the process for reporting results in the state was orderly and followed the law. And he added that while he was "sure" there were illegal votes cast, it was "unlikely" that there total rose to the "numbers or margin necessary to change the outcome" of the election.

He also took a shot at Perdue and Loeffler for their criticism: "As a Republican, I am concerned about Republicans keeping the U.S. Senate. I recommend that Senators Loeffler and Perdue start focusing on that."

I'm not entirely sure why either Purdue or Loeffler think attacking Raffensperger is a winning move for them. Wouldn't that make more sense as something that Osoff or Warnock could attempt to do?