Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[bagelman]

Any news about polls for this race? AJC had one but there should be more.

You want to read into polls after living through the thing that just ended recently?

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

If you think that this woman is sane.....


https://twitter.com/MaxineWaters/status/1324491527662391296?s=20

https://twitter.com/MaxineWaters/status/1325113841164804097?s=20

https://twitter.com/RepMaxineWaters/status/1208218759565066241?s=20

https://twitter.com/RepMaxineWaters/status/1269038270064844801?s=20

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/dec/17/maxine-waters-i-believe-trump-putin-conspiracy-eve/

[kwabbit]

Any news about polls for this race? AJC had one but there should be more.

You want to read into polls after living through the thing that just ended recently?

I know, I know. But polls in Georgia were actually good, unlike every other state basically, so I wouldn't mind having some. I'm going through election withdrawal.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328445205066838016?s=20

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328445205066838016?s=20

Nice try from Liberal Chuck but he'll go to nowhere with this IMO!

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328445205066838016?s=20

Nice try from Liberal Chuck but he'll go to nowhere with this IMO!

TBH IMO!

[Progressive Pessimist]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

I'm not particularly hopeful about these two run-offs either, but Democrats have to try. There is too much at stake to just let McConnell have these seats without a fight.

And when it comes to the down-ballot races, as disappointing as they were, Georgia is one of the few states where the Democrat elected in 2018 got re-elected and over-performed Biden, and where Democrats actually picked up a seat. It does appear that Georgian suburbanites are more willing to support Democrats down-ballot than elsewhere in the country. Hopefully that will extend to the Senate races as well. There are things that can be worked with this year as opposed to most other Georgia run-offs.

[It’s so Joever]

Looks like Trump is going to support Loeffler and Perdue.
The races both go from lean to likely R.

[2016]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

I'm not particularly hopeful about these two run-offs either, but Democrats have to try. There is too much at stake to just let McConnell have these seats without a fight.

And when it comes to the down-ballot races, as disappointing as they were, Georgia is one of the few states where the Democrat elected in 2018 got re-elected and over-performed Biden, and where Democrats actually picked up a seat. It does appear that Georgian suburbanites are more willing to support Democrats down-ballot than elsewhere in the country. Hopefully that will extend to the Senate races as well. There are things that can be worked with this year as opposed to most other Georgia run-offs.

Plain and simple: Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux overperformed in GA-6 & GA-7 because Trump was on the Ballot. He won't be on the Runoff Ballot. Call it strange but both Races going to Runoffs may actually help Republicans more since there is no one now to vote against.

[brucejoel99]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

I'm not particularly hopeful about these two run-offs either, but Democrats have to try. There is too much at stake to just let McConnell have these seats without a fight.

And when it comes to the down-ballot races, as disappointing as they were, Georgia is one of the few states where the Democrat elected in 2018 got re-elected and over-performed Biden, and where Democrats actually picked up a seat. It does appear that Georgian suburbanites are more willing to support Democrats down-ballot than elsewhere in the country. Hopefully that will extend to the Senate races as well. There are things that can be worked with this year as opposed to most other Georgia run-offs.

Plain and simple: Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux overperformed in GA-6 & GA-7 because Trump was on the Ballot. He won't be on the Runoff Ballot. Call it strange but both Races going to Runoffs may actually help Republicans more since there is no one now to vote against.

That's a bold assumption, given that the Republican apparatus has spent the last 2 weeks doing nothing but sewing doubt among their base with regards to trusting the electoral process (so GOP voters might just not trust voting at all because mUh FrAuD, in addition to being less motivated as a result of the God Emperor being forced to leave the White House) & that Trump - based on how crazy he decides to continue acting between now & January 5th - may actually still significantly motivate both Democrats & the suburban swing voters that delivered the state for Biden, even without explicitly being on the ballot himself.

[ProgressiveModerate]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

I'm not particularly hopeful about these two run-offs either, but Democrats have to try. There is too much at stake to just let McConnell have these seats without a fight.

And when it comes to the down-ballot races, as disappointing as they were, Georgia is one of the few states where the Democrat elected in 2018 got re-elected and over-performed Biden, and where Democrats actually picked up a seat. It does appear that Georgian suburbanites are more willing to support Democrats down-ballot than elsewhere in the country. Hopefully that will extend to the Senate races as well. There are things that can be worked with this year as opposed to most other Georgia run-offs.

Plain and simple: Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux overperformed in GA-6 & GA-7 because Trump was on the Ballot. He won't be on the Runoff Ballot. Call it strange but both Races going to Runoffs may actually help Republicans more since there is no one now to vote against.

That's a bold assumption, given that the Republican apparatus has spent the last 2 weeks doing nothing but sewing doubt among their base with regards to trusting the electoral process (so GOP voters might just not trust voting at all because mUh FrAuD, in addition to being less motivated as a result of the God Emperor being forced to leave the White House) & that Trump - based on how crazy he decides to continue acting between now & January 5th - may actually still significantly motivate both Democrats & the suburban swing voters that delivered the state for Biden, even without explicitly being on the ballot himself.

All of these things work both ways. For lower info D and R voters, their main goal has already been accomplished, and both sides have a group of voters who only see politics as the Presidency more or less. Ultimately this is a game of turnout; on the one hand, the Democrats seem to be forming a coalition of more reliable college educated voters, whereas the GOP has a lot of lower propensity voters, but they have an easier job messaging to those voters (screaming socialism).

[MT Treasurer]

This is still an election Republicans should be and almost certainly still are slight but solid favorites to win (obviously not by a large margin, but by 2-4 points or so), but the way I see it, there are three obvious land mines for the GOP here which can quickly cause them to blow two very winnable races:

1) oversaturation/diminishing returns similar to SC/ME/MT for Senate Democrats this year. Outspending the other party doesn’t do as much good as it used to (if it ever really meant that much, honestly), and while a barrage of ads may help, it will replace neither a consistent and condensed message nor a solid GOTV operation (which exists on the D side to a far greater extent than in 2008). There’s also a case to be made that excessive saturation of the airwaves/on social media/local outlets can backfire — I do think this is a very underrated reason behind Bullock's and Gideon's surprisingly decisive losses.

2) lose sight/focus of your main message — nationalize, nationalize, nationalize. This matters far more than the candidate quality of any of the four candidates involved. I’ve seen some of the attack ads on Ossoff and Warnock and some of them strike me as over the top and/or attacks which cannot easily be made to fit into the main theme of nationalizing the race (‘Warnock is an anti-semite’ isn’t going to bring voters to the polls the same way ‘Warnock is a rubber stamp for Schumer who will support court packing/defunding the police on day one’ will). Not sure if anyone saw Rick Scott's ad, but that was certainly more to the point than some of the attacks on Warnock's character.

3) not doing enough to get low-propensity Trump voters to the polls — this has become an exaggerated talking point/meme but there’s some truth to it, and Scott even admitted this. You can get a lot of loyal Trump supporters/Republicans to turn out for the runoff by relentlessly emphasizing that Senate control is at stake but you can get even more of them to the polls by promoting a ‘vote against the party that obstructed Trump's entire presidency/stick it to the party which defeated Trump’ narrative. Fear is always a good motivator, a combination of fear and anger is an even better motivator.

And, of course, the ultimate pitfall:

(4) not making use of UTSD on the campaign trail

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

UTSD?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UTSD?

Yeah, I didn't get that part either.

[brucejoel99]

Unbeatable
Titan
Steve
Daines

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1328422045147869185

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

Thank you for saying that. I did not dare saying it myself because I would have been called a racist, but yeah calling a corrupt career politican like her a public servant is really a disservice to true public servants (militaries, nurses.....)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are favored in these races, but since the Rs are going so far as to question the ligitamcy of GA elections, just like Rubio in FL, the D's can win these races in an upset.

When I made my maps, I already had this in mind

[NewYorkExpress]

Brad Raffensperger says Lindsey Graham asked him if he had the authority to throw out all mail-in ballots in some counties.

Georgia’s secretary of state Brad Raffensperger has said that Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was possible to invalidate legally cast ballots after Donald Trump was narrowly defeated in the state.

In an interview with the Washington Post, Raffensperger said that his fellow Republican, the chairman of the Senate judiciary committee, questioned him about the state’s signature-matching law and asked whether political bias might have played a role in counties where poll workers accepted higher rates of mismatched signatures. According to Raffensperger, Graham then asked whether he had the authority to toss out all mail-in ballots in these counties.

Raffspenger was reportedly “stunned” by the question, in which Graham appeared to suggest that he find a way to throw out legally cast absentee ballots.

“It sure looked like he was wanting to go down that road,” he said.

If Warnock and Ossoff are smart, they'll find a way to link Perdue and Loeffler to this.

[wbrocks67]

Brad Raffensperger says Lindsey Graham asked him if he had the authority to throw out all mail-in ballots in some counties.

Georgia’s secretary of state Brad Raffensperger has said that Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was possible to invalidate legally cast ballots after Donald Trump was narrowly defeated in the state.

In an interview with the Washington Post, Raffensperger said that his fellow Republican, the chairman of the Senate judiciary committee, questioned him about the state’s signature-matching law and asked whether political bias might have played a role in counties where poll workers accepted higher rates of mismatched signatures. According to Raffensperger, Graham then asked whether he had the authority to toss out all mail-in ballots in these counties.

Raffspenger was reportedly “stunned” by the question, in which Graham appeared to suggest that he find a way to throw out legally cast absentee ballots.

“It sure looked like he was wanting to go down that road,” he said.

If Warnock and Ossoff are smart, they'll find a way to link Perdue and Loeffler to this.

Dems really need to do a better job of linking Reps to the national GOP/other GOP members. AOC gets linked to local Dems all the time. So start linking corrupt national GOP members to people like Loeffler and Perdue.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

Thank you for saying that. I did not dare saying it myself because I would have been called a racist, but yeah calling a corrupt career politican like her a public servant is really a disservice to true public servants (militaries, nurses.....)

I certainly agree, and I laughed out loud when I initially read Pollster's post (not at him, but at Maxine Waters).

[Pollster]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

[wbrocks67]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

This seems like an unfair characterization. You may not like Waters and her personality or politics, but she appears to be a normal civil servant working for her district?