2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Holmes]

I wish if Dems really did rig it that they would’ve rigged the downballot races too! Try better next time, Dems.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1329795770464276480

Note: assuming that all the data is from Minnesota and they've just confused the state names (as opposed to mixing data from the two states): it is perfectly reasonable in Minnesota to have turnout in some precincts be more than 100% of the pre-election number of registered voters.  The state has same-day registration, and reportedly had a large amount of it this year.

[FrancoAgo]

Georgia results:

2,475,141 Biden (49.50%)
2,462,857 Trump (49.25%)
     62,587 Others (1.25%)

alex.github updated this a
2,475,296 Biden
2,463,293 Trump
margin is 12,003

[n1240]

What up in Duchess Co.? is Trump really winning or they failed to count absentees and mail ins?

https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/19/absentee-vote-count-complete-dutchess-has-new-judge-keeps-incumbents/3775855001/

Seems they've actually finished counting, Biden+10 overall - larger margin than Obama 2008.

[iceman]

What up in Duchess Co.? is Trump really winning or they failed to count absentees and mail ins?

https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/19/absentee-vote-count-complete-dutchess-has-new-judge-keeps-incumbents/3775855001/

Seems they've actually finished counting, Biden+10 overall - larger margin than Obama 2008.

Dutchess county apparently had around 150,000 votes this year compared to 131,000 in 2016. If we correlate that data with the rest of the state, we may see New York having 8,600,000 votes this year.

[MillennialModerate]

I want to say - now that it’s official: I was wrong about Georgia.

May I be extra wrong on January 5th

As I did say “Biden has 5%, Osoff a 1% and Warnock 0%”

[brucejoel99]

I want to say - now that it’s official: I was wrong about Georgia.

May I be extra wrong on January 5th

As I did say “Biden has 5%, Osoff a 1% and Warnock 0%”

I mean, seeing that GA voted to the left of NC & FL, he clearly had a >5% chance there. Not to mention, you certainly said "fOoLs GoLd" a hell of a lot more times than you ever said "Biden has [a] 5% [chance]." But that's none of my business.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1329795770464276480

Note: assuming that all the data is from Minnesota and they've just confused the state names (as opposed to mixing data from the two states): it is perfectly reasonable in Minnesota to have turnout in some precincts be more than 100% of the pre-election number of registered voters.  The state has same-day registration, and reportedly had a large amount of it this year.

Also, apparently most of those towns that has "+100% turnout" were majority red towns, so if they uncovered any voter fraud it is seemingly republican voter fraud, as usual.

[n1240]

Have found a few more counties with results scattered around for the Prez race in NY, here is what I have currently:

Absentee count:

Biden 353809 (74.0%)
Trump 118866 (24.9%)
Total 477918

Margin of 49.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +3.8%, so average swing of 53.0%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4052441 (56.8%)
Trump 2969636 (41.6%)
Total 7134508

Other points of interest:

- Counties with complete or near complete results on average have 10.6% more votes than 2016
- Counties with complete or near complete results on average have swung 4.2% Dem since 2016
- Broome, Rensselaer, Saratoga are Trump 2016 Biden 2020 counties
- Rockland is the only county with complete/near complete results to have swung towards Trump (4.5% swing)

I define counties as complete or near complete if they exceed their 2016 vote totals. There is a degree of uncertainty with my absentee count in the range of around 2000 votes because the only info I could find in Saratoga was the raw vote margin + Biden/Trump % rounded to the ones place (currently using an estimate of 66360 to 59504 countywide, 16663-4256 on absentee; the article I found cites a 6856 Biden vote lead where he leads 51-46).

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Have found a few more counties with results scattered around for the Prez race in NY, here is what I have currently:

Absentee count:

Biden 353809 (74.0%)
Trump 118866 (24.9%)
Total 477918

Margin of 49.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +3.8%, so average swing of 53.0%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4052441 (56.8%)
Trump 2969636 (41.6%)
Total 7134508

Other points of interest:

- Counties with complete or near complete results on average have 10.6% more votes than 2016
- Counties with complete or near complete results on average have swung 4.2% Dem since 2016
- Broome, Rensselaer, Saratoga are Trump 2016 Biden 2020 counties
- Rockland is the only county with complete/near complete results to have swung towards Trump (4.5% swing)

I define counties as complete or near complete if they exceed their 2016 vote totals. There is a degree of uncertainty with my absentee count in the range of around 2000 votes because the only info I could find in Saratoga was the raw vote margin + Biden/Trump % rounded to the ones place (currently using an estimate of 66360 to 59504 countywide, 16663-4256 on absentee; the article I found cites a 6856 Biden vote lead where he leads 51-46).

Will Clinton County, NY flip or is that gone?

[n1240]

Have found a few more counties with results scattered around for the Prez race in NY, here is what I have currently:

Absentee count:

Biden 353809 (74.0%)
Trump 118866 (24.9%)
Total 477918

Margin of 49.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +3.8%, so average swing of 53.0%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4052441 (56.8%)
Trump 2969636 (41.6%)
Total 7134508

Other points of interest:

- Counties with complete or near complete results on average have 10.6% more votes than 2016
- Counties with complete or near complete results on average have swung 4.2% Dem since 2016
- Broome, Rensselaer, Saratoga are Trump 2016 Biden 2020 counties
- Rockland is the only county with complete/near complete results to have swung towards Trump (4.5% swing)

I define counties as complete or near complete if they exceed their 2016 vote totals. There is a degree of uncertainty with my absentee count in the range of around 2000 votes because the only info I could find in Saratoga was the raw vote margin + Biden/Trump % rounded to the ones place (currently using an estimate of 66360 to 59504 countywide, 16663-4256 on absentee; the article I found cites a 6856 Biden vote lead where he leads 51-46).

Will Clinton County, NY flip or is that gone?

Currently expecting Biden to win Clinton County by 6%.

[Gass3268]

Kentucky has certified:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329830204978683904?s=20

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1329838867755708417

[Wiz in Wis]

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1329841776472027136

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1329838867755708417

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1329842981868855299?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1329841776472027136

Now we will get the official Trump recount.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1329841776472027136

Now we will get the official Trump recount.

now there can be a machine recount so that trump can lose the state for the 4th time

[ucscgaldamez1]

The governor of GA still has to sign it. He hasn't said a word. He has until 5pm tomorrow, I believe.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1329841776472027136

Let the record show that at 12:39 pm ET on the 20th of November 2020, Georgia was officially THERE YET.

[Non Swing Voter]

So much like election night red states are off to a quick advantage in certification and Trump has way more electoral votes locked up.  Democrats are terrible with optics.

I wonder what we'd find if all these deep red states' election processes were subject to the same scrutiny that the swing states are getting?

Exactly.  The big city vote has been pretty stable.  The places that have had wild upticks in voter participation have mostly been rural (despite population loss). 

This whole thing is a joke and shows how ridiculous the gerrymandering abuse is.  Now Trump is trying to get legislators to overturn state results in places like Michigan, which are only GOP legislatures in the first place because of gerrymandering. 

So basically gerrymander -> legislators pick President -> President puts GOP hack judges -> Judges affirm gerrymandering. 

They basically never get held accountable.  The scary thing is this is exactly what these traitors want.

Republicans hate America and have done a pretty good job of destroying it. The US might become  just another quasi-fascist banana republic at this rate.

Yes they do and people need to recognize this.  The entire Republican Party is filled with lazy, incompetent losers who lust for power.  They contribute absolutely nothing to society.  Trump is just the latest symptom of this.

[Tender Branson]

Kentucky has certified:

Both the KY and GA results pages still show "unofficial" status ...

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/106379/web.264614/#/summary

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

[Alben Barkley]

Apparently Biden won a majority of whites in CO. Is that the first time a Democrat has done that in recent years? And what other states did he do that in? I imagine New England states like MA, VT. Probably CA. What others?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1329841776472027136

Now we will get the official Trump recount.

I'm still waiting on the REAL numbers from WIMIPA, GA, and AZ. 

[Tender Branson]

KY has posted a PDF with the official numbers instead.

[Tender Branson]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

16/51:

80 Trump
50 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Hawaii
Maine
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Utah

November 24th
District of Columbia
Indiana
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio

November 25th
Alabama
Alaska

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Nevada
Wisconsin

December 3rd
Connecticut
Oregon
Texas
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Arkansas (missed Nov. 18 deadline)
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 13, not yet official)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020