2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Gass3268]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1326227901654642695

This is pretty scary.

If you see the video or listen to the audio it was clearly a joke. That said, this is not something that anyone should be joking about right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone give a realistic assessment of Arizona?

Trump has friendly vote remaining in ballots to be tabulated but not nearly enough to erase Biden lead.

https://www.arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

Estimated number of provisional ballots left to process should favor Biden but is a wildcard since nobody knows how many will be accepted.

Estimated number of early ballots waiting for signature verification is another wildcard, but this is less than 5k votes total.

 Biden looks likely to win and the real question is what the margin of victory will be. Trump needs 61-63% according to various estimates and every time he doesn't hit that target the margin he needs just goes up because MATH.

Trump doesn't really have assured friendly vote though - Pima will increase Bidens lead, and Maricopa is unsure... could be 50/50 like last night.

 I tried to break down the different categories if you read my post, Pima are provisional and we can't say how many will be counted like the other category. Arizona people on twitter have said the Maricopa Estimated number of ballots ready for tabulation will favor Trump. But we don't know until we know.

In the periodic updates I've been doing, I've been giving Trump some very friendly assumptions, e.g. that he'll run 10% ahead of his current average (and Biden 10% behind his) in each county's remaining votes.  Even with votes this friendly, Trump would still fall several thousand short.  And maybe the Maricopa votes will be super good for him, but he's still staring at a big remaining pot of Pima provisionals (likely to be very Biden-friendly).

I see the website updated overnight - looks like Yavapai County updated some numbers.  Doesn't really change the overall picture, but I'll do another update with these.

[philly09]

It appears Philly has finished as 1703 out of 1703 divisions have reported.

96% of these 3,937 votes just reported are from Philly

The breakdown was Biden 86.5% / 13.5% Trump

Biden's Pennsylvania lead now 47,613

Philly has finished election day votes*

Biden is at 573,000. He needs about 23k to break Obama's 2008 record. Trump is stuck in 128k, 2k votes shy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Yavapai County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4153
Provisional ballots: 36155
Ballots ready for tabulation: 19685

Total: 59993

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 50685 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7374 from them.  He currently trails by 14746, so would finish behind by 7372.

Of the estimated remaining 60K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 18.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[Bootes Void]

It appears Philly has finished as 1703 out of 1703 divisions have reported.

96% of these 3,937 votes just reported are from Philly

The breakdown was Biden 86.5% / 13.5% Trump

Biden's Pennsylvania lead now 47,613

Philly has finished election day votes*

Biden is at 573,000. He needs about 23k to break Obama's 2008 record. Trump is stuck in 128k, 2k votes shy.

He likely won't this time, we'll see if he does in 2024

[philly09]

It appears Philly has finished as 1703 out of 1703 divisions have reported.

96% of these 3,937 votes just reported are from Philly

The breakdown was Biden 86.5% / 13.5% Trump

Biden's Pennsylvania lead now 47,613

Philly has finished election day votes*

Biden is at 573,000. He needs about 23k to break Obama's 2008 record. Trump is stuck in 128k, 2k votes shy.

He likely won't this time, we'll see if he does in 2024

He did however break the record in Allegheny County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yavapai seems to be fiddling with their estimated numbers left, because they just updated again on the website.  It increases the number of outstanding ballots by just under 1000 (which is good for Trump since he's trailing and has a slightly bigger pool from which to make up ground) but it doesn't really change the overall picture.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1326227913075798018

[wbrocks67]

It appears Philly has finished as 1703 out of 1703 divisions have reported.

96% of these 3,937 votes just reported are from Philly

The breakdown was Biden 86.5% / 13.5% Trump

Biden's Pennsylvania lead now 47,613

Philly has finished election day votes*

Biden is at 573,000. He needs about 23k to break Obama's 2008 record. Trump is stuck in 128k, 2k votes shy.

He likely won't this time, we'll see if he does in 2024

Really depends... there's at least 8-10K mail ins still out in Philly and possibly 18-25K provisionals. IDK if that also includes military/overseas, so it's still possible Biden gets to 596K by the end.

[Gass3268]

~700,000 mail ballots to be counted in New York City

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1326235826578214912?s=20

[wbrocks67]

~700,000 mail ballots to be counted in New York City

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1326235826578214912?s=20

When do they start counting?

[DabbingSanta]

Was Roberts County TX the most pro-Trump county in the nation again?

2020: 96% Trump, 3% Biden
2016: 95% Trump, 4% Clinton

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1326241473646440450?s=20

[GP270watch]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

[Rep Jessica]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1326227901654642695

This is pretty scary.

This country is scary

[Bootes Void]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

I expect 51-47 so maybe 7 million. 10 million is too much

[brucejoel99]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

Eyeballing it, it looks like the final outcome is gonna end up somewhere around ~82M-~75M, & a 7M margin would be closer to the latter than the former.

[n1240]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

probably hits the midpoint or slightly lower

[Lord Halifax]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

I expect 51-47 so maybe 7 million. 10 million is too much

Ofc, but anything over 7.5 mio. is closer to 10 than 5 so that's not particularly relevant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326252357013757952

[Crumpets]

NYT just officially projected Democrats will hold the House. Their count is still at 217 in terms of seats, but I think for whatever reason they aren't including CA-34 in that count because, while technically uncalled, it's D vs. D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1326246929928478720

[Non Swing Voter]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

my guess right now is between 7.5-8 million.  Those outstanding ballots are going to be heavily Democratic.

[Bootes Void]

Biden only did slight better than Clinton in Detroit, Cuyahonga county Ohio, Milwaukee, Flint and a few other declining midwestern cities. If Biden wants to win again in 4 years, he need to get the vote totals in those cities back to or above Obama levels cause otherwise he will lose those states in 2024 if he doesnt. I dont trust the suburban areas as they might be more open to non trumpian republican and I wouldnt bet on the rurals trending back to the Democrats. He has to fins a way to maintain support otherwise it might be a problem for democrats electorally.

Also Im surprised Miami-Dade  swung so hard to Trump. I went to Miami a few years ago and it felt like a very cosmopolitan international party city with people showcasing their wealth. The city was also very lgbt friendly and had a somewhat liberal feel to it. I wonder why they would trend to the republican so hard this election even though this place doesnt feel conservative at all. is it cause of the racism down there?socialism? braggadocio?machismo? I guess well see

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1326225036680761344

I'm shocked that Rouda lost. Why?