2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

That's good news for Trump if you think 34% is enough to win.

Obvious Trump is going to get  very lucky in the EC and Biden will win nearly 90% in the 268 fire wall while 270 EVs are all titanium tilt R forever no matter what!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still nothing out of IN or KY

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think we overreacted to early votes skewing some results if I'm honest. Glad we learned this lesson now and not in actually competitive states mind....

What's notable though is that Biden has already gotten more raw votes than Clinton in many places

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why does DDHQ seem to have a range of % in instead of a solid number?

Because it's an estimation

[ProgressiveModerate]

Atlas still hasn't crashed but is slowing down...

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/ shows that with >99% of the vote in NC, Biden has a .5 point lead. This might be recount territory.

The senate race lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

The NYT trend map is quite interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like MOST of the most smug doomers from earlier have gotten awfully quiet, as have the people who were certain that "trends" would make it more likely Biden would win Southern states than the rust belt.

Hmm...

You still have to admit Ds seem like clear underdogs in the senate, which isn't great

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324033983882166272?s=19

Yeah, those damned poll workers shouldn't work that hard.

I think you mean the pole workers

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324033062754160643

So we have a 4/5 shift in Northampton, 5pt in Lackawanna, and 4pt i Believe in Dauphin.

Seems like based on the numbers thus far there is overall a small shift in PA towards Biden in the rural areas from 2016

[ProgressiveModerate]

I gotta say, I cannot believe voters still split their ballots for Susan Collins after all this.

I think we sometimes forget who the average voter is

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Massive push to drive up turnout across the country? And those counties have had atrocious turnout for years.

Told ya that lo turnout would reveal some shocks in areas with traditionally low turnout

[ProgressiveModerate]

Huge sigh of relief in WI, though AZ is starting to worry me just a tad, but Biden still seems clearly favored

[ProgressiveModerate]

What I’m hoping for:

-Joe Biden wins the EC
-Peters maintains his senate seat
-Perdue is pushed below 50%

Is this too much to ask?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What I’m hoping for:

-Joe Biden wins the EC
-Peters maintains his senate seat
-Perdue is pushed below 50%

Is this too much to ask?

You can have one.

In that case I’ll take a JB win

[ProgressiveModerate]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

What if Biden gets the Sabato map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

Assuming both Senate races in GA make the runoff (and I think they will), the one difference this year is Raphael Warnock.   The black vote in January will be off the charts.  I doubt voters are going to split their tickets.   And I don't see Collins voters getting out in full force to get out and vote for Loeffler.  

This is quite doable.

Again; keeping my expectations low but if Democrats do end up with a trifecta after all this it would be so funny

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does NC have any chance of going Democratic, even narrowly? 95 % of the votes reported, Trump is leading by 78k and it seems like the remaining votes come from areas favorable towards Biden (Mecklenburg, Cumberland, Orange, Forsyth)?

Yes, but it's a longshot. The remaining ballots are expected to skew heavily D, but we don't know how many ballots will arrive late

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Could've been a lot worse frankly. The results we're getting are in line with what people thought would happen like several months ago

[ProgressiveModerate]

When the hell is GA supposed to keep counting?

I think we're supposed to get a batch of new votes at 6:00

[ProgressiveModerate]

OMG I called it! Joseph Robinette Biden jr., 46th President of the United States of America.

It's not over till it's officially over

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly the Sabato map - NC and a second chance to get a senate majority wouldn't be a particularly bad result. I think the sensational states like FL and TX led people to the conclusion this was going to be a good night for Trump, and while it's better than polls expected for Trump, it seems like the dominoes are starting to fall for Biden 1 by 1

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not sure if this has already been posted (about 45 minutes old), but:

https://twitter.com/8NewsNow/status/1324093130103205888

Nice, though I worry it'll be heavily from some specific part of the state and skew the state heavily one direction and we have either an atlas meltdown or a cocky atlas

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's kind of darkly ironic that the result everyone expected in late 2018/early 2019 is what's happening.

Senate: Flip AZ and CO, lose AL.

Presidency: Biden/Harris win back PA/MI/WI, maybe one more

Though the margins in specific states and regions are certainly unexpected. Definately going to be fun to analyze this election