MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Pollster]

Some updates in this race today:

Democratic former State Senator Scott Sifton has announced a campaign. Sifton almost ran for Governor in 2020 but deferred to Galloway. He narrowly defeated an incumbent Republican state Senator in 2012 and slightly underperformed Obama, but overperformed HRC in his reelection in 2016.

On the Republican side, Eric Greitens did not rule out a primary challenge to Blunt.

[Roll Roons]

It seems more like he's running against Hawley. Though I guess he's an easier foil than Blunt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Safe R anyways

[MT Treasurer]

“When he raised his fist and betrayed our democracy, Josh Hawley showed us who he really is,” Sifton said. “And when Senator Blunt was too weak to stand up to his party’s lies, he showed us who he is too.

“So next year, when that Senate seat is on the ballot, we the people of Missouri need to show who we are,” Sifton said. “I’m Scott Sifton and I believe in a Missouri where we raise our hands to support voting rights, not violent insurrection; to salute classroom teachers, not cop killers; and to stand up for racial justice, not white supremacy.”

I’m actually far more worried about this seat than IA (Blunt can thank his lucky stars that Trump lost reelection), but lumping in Blunt (whose relatively unique electoral weaknesses are entirely unrelated to Hawley's 'grandstanding') with Hawley & not-so-subtly evoking racial issues and national implications in a contest that’s best approached by de-emphasizing party affiliation and exploiting the incumbent's personal weaknesses isn’t as smart as he thinks. Pretty sure 'Blunt didn’t stand up to his party' won’t be a winning message for Democrats here, and if they seriously believe Hawley is an easier foil than Blunt (which I don’t think they actually do), this race won’t be particularly interesting.

Likely R.

[MATTROSE94]

This is Safe R anyways

Not really. If an extremist such as Eric Greitens or Cortland Skykes primaries Roy Blunt (who is a weak incumbent), then this seat could be in play for the Democrats.

[DaleCooper]

Greitens is like a Missouri Roy Moore. I wouldn't put it past Republican voters to support him en masse if he were to win the primary, but a Greitens vs. Generic Dem election should scare the GOP, and America for that matter.

[Calthrina950]

Greitens is like a Missouri Roy Moore. I wouldn't put it past Republican voters to support him en masse if he were to win the primary, but a Greitens vs. Generic Dem election should scare the GOP, and America for that matter.

If Missouri were still like it was in 2012, then Greitens would probably lose the general election. Unfortunately, the state has become much more polarized since then, so I think he would take it.

[jamestroll]

I mean.. stranger things have happened in American politics than an inoffensive minority party challenger defeating an unpopular incumbent or an unpopular nominee of the state majority party..

[SnowLabrador]

This is Safe R no matter what.

[mikhaela]

Safe. Doesn't matter how close it is. It has no chance of actually flipping.

[Roll Roons]

Safe. Doesn't matter how close it is. It has no chance of actually flipping.

Except this probably won't even be that close.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1368942406507388939

That makes number 5.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Blunt retiring:

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1368942908724965380?s=20

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Damn, you beat me by literally 8 seconds. Unreal.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cook: Safe R --> Lean R

[Skunk]

So who do you think will be the R nominee? My money's on Mark McCloskey.

[ultraviolet]

Cook: Safe R --> Lean R

Open seat!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Blunt retiring actually makes the seat safer.. lol

[Stuart98]

Blunt was never a strong incumbent; Safe R -> Safe R.

[SnowLabrador]

Whoa...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Does this make it more or less likely that Eric Greitens runs?  

[Pollster]

Probably the best possible news for the Missouri GOP (unless this turns into a Greitens mess).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Weird 5  senate republicans and zero democrats are retiring. Maybe they know something we don't.

[SnowLabrador]

Weird 5  senate republicans and zero democrats are retiring. Maybe they know something we don't.

Hopefully it means that Democrats will do well in the midterms.

[JMT]

Any chance Roy Blunt’s son (Matt Blunt) runs for this seat? Or is he done with politics? He’s been out of office since 2009, but he’s still only 50 years old.