Sabato: It's a "two presidents mid-term"

[wbrocks67]

Larry Sabato has touched on something that I've said recently too, that this mid-term is so fascinating for many reasons, but one of the big reasons why it's become close (aside from candidate quality, Roe, etc.) is that this is essentially both a Biden mid-term and a Trump mid-term wrapped into one.

Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/thenewsoncnbc/status/1561855765001936896

[Progressive Pessimist]

Makes sense to me. I don't think any President has had to deal with the shadow of the last one as much as Biden has with Trump. Trump's legitimizing of Biden's victory certainly has helped cause this phenomenon. However, it might not be working to the benefit of Trump's party as much as he thinks it is. Not like he cares.

[Alben Barkley]

Yet another example of Trump sabotaging his own party because his narcissistic ego makes him incapable of just keeping his big stupid mouth shut. All the crap about him never conceding the last election makes this effectively the closest thing to a literal two presidents midterm we’ve ever had (half the country thinks the wrong president is in office and the other half is still terrified by them), plus he pushed horrible candidates like Oz over the edge in the primaries. The result is that Donald Trump might have singlehandedly turned what should have been another 2010 into another 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know this Biden is at 47/52 Approval not 42 and he is bucking the Midterm trend at least in the Sen because Trump has the same Approvals as Biden in the same states

[Senator Incitatus]

Not an unreasonable position, though clearly it's weighted towards being a Biden midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s certainly a factor (imagine if Republicans had hitched their wagon to Bush in 2010) and will help reduce Democratic losses in Democratic-leaning states/districts in particular, but given that Trump would likely beat Biden if a hypothetical rematch were held this year, I don’t see why such a "two presidents mid-term" would result in a 2018-type Democratic wave in November? Seems like contradictory and wishful thinking to me.

[wbrocks67]

It’s certainly a factor (imagine if Republicans had hitched their wagon to Bush in 2010) and will help reduce Democratic losses in Democratic-leaning states/districts in particular, but given that Trump would likely beat Biden if a hypothetical rematch were held this year, I don’t see why such a "two presidents mid-term" would result in a 2018-type Democratic wave in November? Seems like contradictory and wishful thinking to me.

I don't think anyone's predicting that, but even if Dems could hold it to a 2020-style more neutral year (with a slight D lean), that would be fantastic for them.

At this rate, given the House's make-up, Ds would likely only need a +2 lead in the GCB to keep the house (narrowly), compared to D+3 in 2020.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Does the FBI thing really make a difference? If swing voters were still considering voting R after the infamous Jan 6 hearings, I really doubt Trump being raided is going to make them change their minds.

[Xing]

The idea is pretty much that Democratic turnout will be higher than in 2010 or 2014. Doesn’t mean 2022 will be a good year for Democrats or even a neutral year, though it’s why I never believed it would be a R+9 year or that we’d get results like WA-SEN flipping or almost flipping.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s certainly a factor (imagine if Republicans had hitched their wagon to Bush in 2010) and will help reduce Democratic losses in Democratic-leaning states/districts in particular, but given that Trump would likely beat Biden if a hypothetical rematch were held this year, I don’t see why such a "two presidents mid-term" would result in a 2018-type Democratic wave in November? Seems like contradictory and wishful thinking to me.

I'm not necessarily sure if it's safe to say that if Biden and Trump were directly on the ballot in 2022 Trump would win. I think these polls mainly suggests Rs just hold a slight enthusiam edge over Ds. Polling for Pres is difficult at this point cause it's just a hypoethetical; if both were on the ballot in 2022 directly we'd have fullfledged campaigns and they might make some different decisions.

[Orser67]

I think it's a good way of thinking about how this mid-term might play out. If Democrats have a better mid-term than the last four for the party in power, I think we could be using it a lot in the future to describe this election.

[Indy Texas]

When GHWB and Carter were defeated for re-election, both went away quietly and let their respective parties move on without them.

Trump’s post-presidency is without precedent.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yet another example of Trump sabotaging his own party because his narcissistic ego makes him incapable of just keeping his big stupid mouth shut. All the crap about him never conceding the last election makes this effectively the closest thing to a literal two presidents midterm we’ve ever had (half the country thinks the wrong president is in office and the other half is still terrified by them), plus he pushed horrible candidates like Oz over the edge in the primaries. The result is that Donald Trump might have singlehandedly turned what should have been another 2010 into another 2018.

We blew a lot of races in 2010 too and had bad candidate selection in 2010. We blew DE/CO/NV in 2010 and didnt recruit Capito for the Senate in WV cause if we did we very well could have won the senate

[Minnesota Mike]

It’s certainly a factor (imagine if Republicans had hitched their wagon to Bush in 2010) and will help reduce Democratic losses in Democratic-leaning states/districts in particular, but given that Trump would likely beat Biden if a hypothetical rematch were held this year, I don’t see why such a "two presidents mid-term" would result in a 2018-type Democratic wave in November? Seems like contradictory and wishful thinking to me.

I don't agree with that at all.

[Coldstream]

Yep, agree with Sabato - Trump is a de facto leader of the opposition right now so his approvals will affect the GOpP’s performance. We are in unprecedented territory. There’s no way out for the GOP either beyond Trump just shutting up, which he won’t do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s certainly a factor (imagine if Republicans had hitched their wagon to Bush in 2010) and will help reduce Democratic losses in Democratic-leaning states/districts in particular, but given that Trump would likely beat Biden if a hypothetical rematch were held this year, I don’t see why such a "two presidents mid-term" would result in a 2018-type Democratic wave in November? Seems like contradictory and wishful thinking to me.

Do you know he has lead in all the You Gov polls Biden and Biden is at the Highest Approvals yet in Rassy Tracking 47/52 Rs act like Biden is still at 33% no he isnt

Rassy not 42% it's 47/52%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_aug22?fullbrowser

[Sir Mohamed]

Yep, agree with Sabato - Trump is a de facto leader of the opposition right now so his approvals will affect the GOpP’s performance. We are in unprecedented territory. There’s no way out for the GOP either beyond Trump just shutting up, which he won’t do.

If - and I'm still saying IF - this drags the GOP down, nobody of significance in the party will dare to call him out for it. And the orange buffoon himself completely lacks any  that he's a gigantic albatross for the GOP.

Imagine any other defeated prez meddling in the subsequent midterms... really shows how unique his post-presidency really is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As Zi quoted MT Treasure he acts like Biden is at 33% not 47/52 the Rs still act like this, he won 50/45 Biden didn't win 60(40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Actually if you look at the lines between Biden and Trump they track very similar to each other

[President Johnson]

When GHWB and Carter were defeated for re-election, both went away quietly and let their respective parties move on without them.

Trump’s post-presidency is without precedent.

Imagine Democrats embracing Carter in 1982 or even Republicans making 2010 another referendum on Dubya.

This is definitely a situation like never before and I agree with the premise. At least polls also show about equal enthusiasm on both sides.

[Progressive Pessimist]

To those saying that it's still a Biden midterm in the end, that is fair. He is the sitting President, and is unpopular. However, I would like to point out that Democrats in most elections this year don't seem to be as tethered to him as Republicans are to Trump. And it didn't have to be this way: Trump didn't have to get involved with these elections to satiate his ego (though he can never resist) and GOP candidates didn't have to talk more about him than about concerns of the average American-but he put them in that position. Something worth considering that reinforces Sabato's observation here.

[Mr. Smith]

When GHWB and Carter were defeated for re-election, both went away quietly and let their respective parties move on without them.

Trump’s post-presidency is without precedent.

Herbert Hoover says hello with a 1940 re-election campaign, and whaddya' know, he too was pro-tariff.