MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

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Although I think Blunt would be favored in a Biden midterm, with numbers like this it wouldn't surprise me if he decided to retire rather than run for reelection. Blunt's approvals are no better than they were in 2016, when he almost lost to Jason Kander-and was rescued from defeat by Trump. Why exactly has Blunt always been so unpopular?

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

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Some updates in this race today:

Democratic former State Senator Scott Sifton has announced a campaign. Sifton almost ran for Governor in 2020 but deferred to Galloway. He narrowly defeated an incumbent Republican state Senator in 2012 and slightly underperformed Obama, but overperformed HRC in his reelection in 2016.

On the Republican side, Eric Greitens did not rule out a primary challenge to Blunt.

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Probably the best possible news for the Missouri GOP (unless this turns into a Greitens mess).

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Kander reaffirming that he's out:

https://twitter.com/JasonKander/status/1368952464494522369?s=20

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https://twitter.com/CoriBush/status/1369097292523962370

Cori Bush out fwiw.

This is very much not a declination.

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We've got an exploratory committee launched for Democrat Lucas Kunce, who appears to be aiming quite clearly for the Kander lane.

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Question

How did Roy Blunt become the #3 Republican in the senate despite only being elected in 2010?
That is a rapid rise in leadership

McConnell has been in since 1984 and Coryn since 2002

He came a hair away from becoming the House GOP leader and potentially Speaker. He is beloved by the Washington institutions.

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With Blunt retiring and so many House members potentially running in this primary, it's very possible that a majority of MO's congressional delegation will be freshmen in 2023. Possibly a huge blow to the state's federal influence due to seniority.

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My suburban educated white-collar (insert other realignment buzzwords here) parents have voted for exactly one Democrat in the past ten years and his name was Chris Koster.

Not Kander in 2016 or Galloway in 18? Or even McCaskill?

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https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1382766830704500737?s=21

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Quinton Lucas met with DSCC and is seriously considering, Luetkemeyer is also considering.

Almost every Republican in Missouri's House delegation is considering a run. I believe Sam Graves is the only one who isn't.

This will be fun.

Not to forget that in an institution where seniority is everything (especially with regards to appropriations), a congressional delegation packed with freshmen and a Senate delegation in which both members are first-termers will have a noticeable impact on a state that already overwhelmingly feels ignored by the federal government. Gerrymandering Cleaver out exacerbates this.

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Okay I'll bite...who, if nominated, has a better (recognizing still very low) chance of blowing this race? Greitens or McCloskey?

Greitens. McCloskey is still undefined to the overwhelming majority of the electorate, which is a huge potential vulnerability but also a huge potential opportunity if he seizes it.

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https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1414955575885111299?s=21

Would be this cycle’s Bredesen

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Everyone here is dunking on Nixon, but name one candidate that would do better (Besides Kander who doesn't want it anymore)

Russ Carnahan, Chris Koster, etc. They're not especially good candidates, but they were reasonably well-liked Democrats in their time and not nearly as stained by controversy as Jay Nixon was by the end of his tenure.

Jay Nixon would do better than either of them, especially Carnahan.  That said, Kansas City Mayor Quentin Lucas might be better if he’s interested.  If not, Nixon and Sifton both have their pros and cons, but either way, the goal would be to have wave/Roy Moore-tier scandal insurance and make Republicans waste some money here.  Plus, it’s always helpful in downballot races if you can at least run a competent candidate for Senate and Governor.

There's also Clint Zweifel, but I believe he's already ruled this race out.

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Interestingly, Long has always seemed to do poorly in his primaries by incumbent standards. Even after becoming a loyal Trump footsoldier, he only took 66% in his primary in 2020, and this was the highest share he ever received. In the general elections, he underperformed both Romney and Trump and saw the libertarian candidate receive significant support each time.

I don't know why he seems to have issues with his base, but I'm not sure he's the one I'd bet on.

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Scott Sifton has dropped out and endorsed Trudy Busch Valentine, heir to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, who entered yesterday morning.

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Danforth PAC to spend $20 million to lift independent John Wood in U.S. Senate race

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This man is amazing, give him his twitter back right now

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Billy Long having a normal one.

https://twitter.com/auctnr1/status/1554440968644005894?s=20&t=nQSdIfZBJ46q_9...