MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[VAR]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k0pvsrbbzcy8p6/slu-poll-october2020-toplineresults.pdf?dl=0

[Calthrina950]

Although I think Blunt would be favored in a Biden midterm, with numbers like this it wouldn't surprise me if he decided to retire rather than run for reelection. Blunt's approvals are no better than they were in 2016, when he almost lost to Jason Kander-and was rescued from defeat by Trump. Why exactly has Blunt always been so unpopular?

[SnowLabrador]

If even Claire McCaskill couldn't win re-election in 2018, there's no way any Democrat beats Roy Blunt in 2022, especially if Biden is President. Sorry, this one won't be too interesting.

[Stuart98]

Kander run again please

[Pollster]

Although I think Blunt would be favored in a Biden midterm, with numbers like this it wouldn't surprise me if he decided to retire rather than run for reelection. Blunt's approvals are no better than they were in 2016, when he almost lost to Jason Kander-and was rescued from defeat by Trump. Why exactly has Blunt always been so unpopular?

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Still safe R

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Kanderrrrrr

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Still safe R

Not in a Republican midterm or if he is successfully primaried by a Roy Moore/Eric Greitens-tier candidate.

[lfromnj]

Still safe R

Not in a Republican midterm or if he is successfully primaried by a Roy Moore/Eric Greitens-tier candidate.

Greitens wants to primary Hawley I think.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Still safe R

Not in a Republican midterm or if he is successfully primaried by a Roy Moore/Eric Greitens-tier candidate.

Greitens wants to primary Hawley I think.

He'd need to secure other office to rebuild his power base first or bank on Hawley being trapped in a drawn-out presidential primary and becoming too unpopular to easily switch back to a 2024 Senate bid. The latter is a really long shot and I'd guess Hawley would have one of the easiest Republican primaries in MO, ceteris paribus.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are concentrating on AZ, PA, WI, GA right now for 2022, MO like FL and NC in 2022 can wait. Especially if Ducey decided to run

[Suburbia]

If Blunt retires in a Biden midterm, it's Likely R.

Sarah Steelman's seat if she wants it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Blunt retires in a Biden midterm, it's Likely R.

Sarah Steelman's seat if she wants it.

The race probably gets marginally easier for Republicans if Blunt retires in a Biden midterm and the nominee isn't Greitens. Blunt is a weak incumbent.

[Suburbia]

If Blunt retires in a Biden midterm, it's Likely R.

Sarah Steelman's seat if she wants it.

The race probably gets marginally easier for Republicans if Blunt retires in a Biden midterm and the nominee isn't Greitens. Blunt is a weak incumbent.

Yes, Blunt is one of the vulnerable Senate Republicans in 2022

[Hope For A New Era]

If even Claire McCaskill couldn't win re-election in 2018, there's no way any Democrat beats Roy Blunt in 2022, especially if Biden is President. Sorry, this one won't be too interesting.

Claire McCaskill had a similar popularity pattern to Trump. An unshakable base, but unpopular everywhere else.

Although I think Blunt would be favored in a Biden midterm, with numbers like this it wouldn't surprise me if he decided to retire rather than run for reelection. Blunt's approvals are no better than they were in 2016, when he almost lost to Jason Kander-and was rescued from defeat by Trump. Why exactly has Blunt always been so unpopular?

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

^ Pretty much nailed it, though I'd also add that he's seen as "Monsanto's best friend." He got very lucky. Put anyone other than HRC on the ballot and he loses in 2016.

[GALeftist]

Does anyone think this might actually give the GOP a scare with Kander in 2022? Not saying he has a path just yet, but it might require the Republicans to send more money to Missouri than they'd like when they should be focusing on New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and other such states.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Does anyone think this might actually give the GOP a scare with Kander in 2022? Not saying he has a path just yet, but it might require the Republicans to send more money to Missouri than they'd like when they should be focusing on New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and other such states.

In the event that Blunt doesn't get primaried and it's a Biden midterm, Democrats would be much better off conserving Kander's political capital for a more winnable race. He'd have an easier path to a row office victory that year.

[MT Treasurer]

This is honestly better than I expected, as Blunt's numbers have been worse before. In any case, we’ve seen this pattern before...

Blunt starts out with very poor approval ratings/polling deficits vs. the well-known Democrat/several liabilities compared to generic R -> looks highly vulnerable in the GE early on -> the race is hyped up as a great pick-up opportunity for Democrats -> Blunt ends up being saved by the environment as the race slowly but surely trends away from Democrats

Man, how quickly history repeats itself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri#Polling_2

Party like it’s January 2009, but with Biden as P rather than VP. Sometimes you need absurd luck in politics, and Blunt has had a lot of it in his career. (I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t retire, though.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Party like it’s January 2009, but with Biden as P rather than VP. Sometimes you need absurd luck in politics, and Blunt has had a lot of it in his career. (I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t retire, though.)

Given the gradual ageing of the median Senator, why would you expect his retirement to be odds on? He'd only be 72 and it's the third term in which most Senators amass enough formal/informal seniority to gain firm political influence. He's only done two so far.

While I think he'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge, that luck you mentioned already seems to have delivered him a few gifts on that front. Hawley is already in the Senate, Greitens is probably too controversial to beat him in a primary (although he wouldn't be lock by any means) and much of the hype surrounding Ashcroft has really died down. Parson would probably prefer to stay governor than fight a Senate challenge just to cut his last term short.

I'm sure one could emerge, but there aren't any screamingly obvious rising stars in the MOGOP who are publicly positioning themselves for a tilt at Blunt's seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is way too early to be talking about 20220

[Lognog]

This is way too early to be talking about 20220

yeah you know atlas goes too far when they start talking about elections 18000 years in the future

[tenyasha]

I think despite his approvals he would still win in 2022 even in a trump mid term or a biden one. Missouri just got so  red over the past decade

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless Galloway whom will lose to Parson run for this seat, D's don't have much of a bench in MO. This poll probably is testing voters and they have a positive response to Galloway, but they want Parson to remain as Gov, that's why Blunts approval is so low

[SevenEleven]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

[Hope For A New Era]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

It seems like the House is much more likely to dramatically swing against the President's party in a midterm.