MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Does this make it more or less likely that Eric Greitens runs?  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m wondering if there are so many Republicans that a ‘conservative but not embarrassing’ moderate could sneak through the primary just running in St. Charles and the KC burbs.

Ironically, Sam Graves could fill that role very well, but he may be the only congressional R not running. Such is the absurdity of Missouri.

He's the "Dean" of Missouri's congressional delegation, if I'm not mistaken, having first been elected in 2000. His accumulation of House seniority may be the reason why he's (apparently) not running for Senate.

Idk if this is true or not, so take with a big grain of salt b/c my source left the office on bad terms and is more than a little disgruntled, but I heard from a friend who used to be a mid-level staffer in Graces’ office that it was an open secret among his higher-ranking staffers that Graves had affairs with multiple lobbyists and got privately scolded by the leadership (along with Trent Franks and two other members whose names I’m forgetting atm) to get their act together b/c their philandering/behavior toward women was so out of control in one way or another that Boehner was gonna cut them lose if it became public rather than wasting any time or political capitol trying to defend their behavior.  

If that’s true, maybe Graves isn’t running b/c he’s worried his affairs with lobbyists will come out and sink him in the primary.  Again though, take with a grain of salt b/c the source is a disgruntled mid-level employee whom I have known to exaggerate/embellish even when the core premise of his stories are definitely true (ex: it could really be that leadership once told Graves and a few others to stop getting overly friendly with lobbyists b/c it was giving the appearance of a possible affair or might lead to one, idk).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Quinton Lucas met with DSCC and is seriously considering, Luetkemeyer is also considering.

I hope he runs. He’d be a formidable candidate.

It doesn't matter, this race is Safe R no matter what happens.

There’s no harm in consistently running strong candidates as scandal/wave insurance.  It’s actually an important part of rebuilding state parties and running an effective 50 state strategy (both of which the party badly needs although obviously it should be coupled with pragmatism about where and how much we invest resources).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Okay I'll bite...who, if nominated, has a better (recognizing still very low) chance of blowing this race? Greitens or McCloskey?

Greitens by far

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Everyone here is dunking on Nixon, but name one candidate that would do better (Besides Kander who doesn't want it anymore)

Russ Carnahan, Chris Koster, etc. They're not especially good candidates, but they were reasonably well-liked Democrats in their time and not nearly as stained by controversy as Jay Nixon was by the end of his tenure.

Jay Nixon would do better than either of them, especially Carnahan.  That said, Kansas City Mayor Quentin Lucas might be better if he’s interested.  If not, Nixon and Sifton both have their pros and cons, but either way, the goal would be to have wave/Roy Moore-tier scandal insurance and make Republicans waste some money here.  Plus, it’s always helpful in downballot races if you can at least run a competent candidate for Senate and Governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

What's your reasoning behind Wagner not winning re-election..? Most of Atlas believed she would lose by double digits in 2020, but she had a relatively comfortable victory (6 points).

Err…most on Atlas had that as Lean R/Tilt R

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Scott Sifton has dropped out and endorsed Trudy Busch Valentine, heir to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, who entered yesterday morning.

Who do we think is the better Dem prospect here? Kunce or Busch?

Assuming she turns out to have at least Generic D-level candidate competence, then definitely Busch-Valentine.  The Busch name is absolutely golden in the greater St. Louis metro region (including the suburbs).  For better or (more often) worse, that family could get away with murder there whether the trial were held in Kirkwood or downtown St. Louis proper (which are about as different as you can get).  That said, Busch-Valentine and Kunce will both get killed, especially against anyone other than Grietens.  I do think that *if* she turns out to be an at least half-decent campaigner, then Busch-Valentine definitely has a shot at doing well enough against Grietens to make her a serious, potentially field-clearing candidate should a good opportunity to run for something else (like a swingy court-drawn MO-2, a state legislative seat, or even as wave insurance for a row office against an unusually weak Republican, etc) down the road and I suspect that is the actual goal here. 

Honestly though, it’s just a question of which way you prefer arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic though b/c even against Grietens, both she and Kunce would likely end up losing (my guess would be upper single-digits/low-double digits).