MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[SevenEleven]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

It seems like the House is much more likely to dramatically swing against the President's party in a midterm.

The numbers for the House during the last six is still 4-2, nothing that completely off-sets, and even within those two, one was second term and one was first term. If Biden has a positive midterm, those numbers become 3-3-1 and 4-3, respectively, which shows that anything can happen.

[Calthrina950]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

Yes, and why is that a problem? It's not a guarantee that Blunt would win reelection in a Biden midterm, but he would certainly be in a better position than if he were running for reelection under Trump.

[Suburbia]

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

Why not Ann Wagner?

[scooby]

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

Why not Ann Wagner?

A spokesperson for Blunt announced today that he is planning to run again, and neither Wagner or Steelman would challenge him in a primary if he follows through. Greitens would though, and private polling has apparently shown that race as very tight.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

[scooby]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Missouri Democrats have a pretty strong track record of beating Republicans who are widely recognized as insane, terrible candidates. Obviously Greitens could still win, but against a good candidate he would not be a shoo-in. It may have been a gubernatorial race, but he only won by 5% when he WASN'T damaged goods.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Missouri Democrats have a pretty strong track record of beating Republicans who are widely recognized as insane, terrible candidates. Obviously Greitens could still win, but against a good candidate he would not be a shoo-in. It may have been a gubernatorial race, but he only won by 5% when he WASN'T damaged goods.

This will be a Biden midterm, and Missouri is even redder than it was in 2016. After Claire McCaskill's 6-point loss to Josh Hawley, and Nicole Galloway's 17-point loss to Mike Parson, it really isn't possible.

[Hope For A New Era]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Just like how Kris Kobach easily won KS-GOV 2018.

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

Not sure how Crystal Quade would do in a statewide election. Probably not very strong with rural voters, but being from Springfield is likely a big help. Greene was Kander's downfall in 2016 and Galloway's ace in the hole in 2018.

[jamestroll]

God has already told me that 2022 will be a GOP wave year .

[scooby]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Missouri Democrats have a pretty strong track record of beating Republicans who are widely recognized as insane, terrible candidates. Obviously Greitens could still win, but against a good candidate he would not be a shoo-in. It may have been a gubernatorial race, but he only won by 5% when he WASN'T damaged goods.

This will be a Biden midterm, and Missouri is even redder than it was in 2016. After Claire McCaskill's 6-point loss to Josh Hawley, and Nicole Galloway's 17-point loss to Mike Parson, it really isn't possible.

Claire McCaskill was running as a unpopular incumbent whose luck ran out against a popular opponent who was a great fit for the 2018 electorate in Missouri. Galloway shouldn't have lost by 17 points (she ran a poor campaign), but Parson wasn't even high profile enough to be vulnerable this year, especially without the ability for Democrats to run a proper field operation. Missouri Republicans who have negative impressions with the public lose pretty frequently, and it's inane to pretend we know exactly how the national environment would shape a race against Greitens, especially with a bloody primary and against a top-tier opponent like Crystal Quade. I'm not saying it's lean D or even a tossup, but pretending it's completely safe R against Erotic Eric is ridiculous.

[Suburbia]

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

Why not Ann Wagner?

Wagner could run as well, she was the MOGOP chair, she was an Ambassador, etc.

[Suburbia]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Missouri Democrats have a pretty strong track record of beating Republicans who are widely recognized as insane, terrible candidates. Obviously Greitens could still win, but against a good candidate he would not be a shoo-in. It may have been a gubernatorial race, but he only won by 5% when he WASN'T damaged goods.

This will be a Biden midterm, and Missouri is even redder than it was in 2016. After Claire McCaskill's 6-point loss to Josh Hawley, and Nicole Galloway's 17-point loss to Mike Parson, it really isn't possible.

Claire McCaskill was running as a unpopular incumbent whose luck ran out against a popular opponent who was a great fit for the 2018 electorate in Missouri. Galloway shouldn't have lost by 17 points (she ran a poor campaign), but Parson wasn't even high profile enough to be vulnerable this year, especially without the ability for Democrats to run a proper field operation. Missouri Republicans who have negative impressions with the public lose pretty frequently, and it's inane to pretend we know exactly how the national environment would shape a race against Greitens, especially with a bloody primary and against a top-tier opponent like Crystal Quade. I'm not saying it's lean D or even a tossup, but pretending it's completely safe R against Erotic Eric is ridiculous.

Greitens could beat Blunt or Wagner, and he'll run against Black liberal women like Kim Gardner and Cori Bush to get rural Missouri turnout outside of STL and KC in the general election, and tie Quade/Kander or Shackelford to those women.

[2016]

This Race entirely depends on the Popularity of Senator Roy Blunt. If his Approvals are continueing to decline get ready that Rick Scott & Mitch McConnell will push him out. McConnell did this with Jim Bunning in KY in the 1st Obama Midterm.

Ann Wagner didn't run in 2018 because she was too scared giving up her House Seat in a Trump Midterm. In Hindsight though that was the right Decision.

However if Blunt is forced to retire she will run.

The notion that Greitens can beat Blunt is just silly. Looks like everyone is forgetting how much money McConnell's Super PAC dumped on Kris Kobach and pro Roger Marshall to make sure Marshall wins.

[Figueira]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

Eh, the Senate can be misleading. In 2018 the Republicans made gains, but the Democrats definitely did better if you consider what seats they were defending.

That said, it's true that midterms are not necessarily bad for the President's party. There's always a possibility of another 2002.

[Alben Barkley]

We’ll at least have a chance to pick up seats in WI, PA, and NC in 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up like a reverse 2018, with the GOP taking back the House but we gain in the Senate due to the GOP having to defend more territory from seats they won alongside their last presidential victory.

[2016]

We’ll at least have a chance to pick up seats in WI, PA, and NC in 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up like a reverse 2018, with the GOP taking back the House but we gain in the Senate due to the GOP having to defend more territory from seats they won alongside their last presidential victory.

Keep on dreaming about winning WI or NC in a Biden Midterm. This ain't happening! Scott Walker got dragged out of Office because People hated Trump in that Midterm and GOP suffered huge losses in the suburbs. The same people elected Biden this year BUT if they see President Biden giving in to the Radical Left + the Squad of Omar, Talib and AOC they will swing back to the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

safe R

[MT Treasurer]

This is one of the very few statewide/Senate races where Republicans would be better off without the incumbent, so Blunt running again isn’t exactly great news for the party. I’ll keep it at Likely R for now, and (hot take) I actually think there’s more upset potential for Democrats here than IA. Blunt can thank his lucky stars that Trump lost reelection.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This is one of the very few statewide/Senate races where Republicans would be better off without the incumbent, so Blunt running again isn’t exactly great news for the party. I’ll keep it at Likely R for now, and (hot take) I actually think there’s more upset potential for Democrats here than IA. Blunt can thank his lucky stars that Trump lost reelection.

Gotta agree with you man.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really don't get why Blunt is so unpopular. Anyways, MO's partisan lean, polarization, and the probable R tilt of the year all make this likely R.

[Green Line]

Flawless, beautiful, Blunt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't get why Blunt is so unpopular. Anyways, MO's partisan lean, polarization, and the probable R tilt of the year all make this likely R.

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BYERS REMORSE TOWARDS CLAIRE MCCASKILL BLOWING IT IN 2018
Let's hope D's can get Greitans to run as a D, that's the only hope to get Blunt out

[Tekken_Guy]

Flawless, beautiful, Blunt.

He looks like the Grinch.

[SenatorCouzens]

Missouri GOP has a pretty good bench in an ever increasingly safe state. If I were a RNC/McConnell/Republican party building mastermind type, I'd be rather annoyed with Roy Blunt who has had his day in the sun and remains curiously unpopular in his red state.