MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

Biden has a net positive rating in GA, NC and TX

[S019]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

You're....not serious right....


You seriously think Baker is going to lose just because MA is a blue state? That's some of the laziest analysis ever, Baker won in a massive Dem wave even as Democrats won the Senate race in a romp and swept each congressional district, New England has a tradition of ticket splitting, Baker will be fine, if he runs again. In fact I'll bet that if Baker runs again, he wins by at least 10 and if he doesn't win by at least 10, if he runs again, I'll change my username to "I was wrong" for 2 weeks, screenshot this if you may. Also this is the Senate thread, please remember to go to the Governor thread next time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

You're....not serious right....


You seriously think Baker is going to lose just because MA is a blue state? That's some of the laziest analysis ever, Baker won in a massive Dem wave even as Democrats won the Senate race in a romp and swept each congressional district, New England has a tradition of ticket splitting, Baker will be fine, if he runs again. In fact I'll bet that if Baker runs again, he wins by at least 10 and if he doesn't win by at least 10, if he runs again, I'll change my username to "I was wrong" for 2 weeks, screenshot this if you may. Also this is the Senate thread, please remember to go to the Governor thread next time.

We haven't seen a poll, when we start seeing polls, I am not giving up on any race except FL due to Rubio wants to pass PR Statehood

DeSantis has a 57 percent approvals

[S019]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

You're....not serious right....


You seriously think Baker is going to lose just because MA is a blue state? That's some of the laziest analysis ever, Baker won in a massive Dem wave even as Democrats won the Senate race in a romp and swept each congressional district, New England has a tradition of ticket splitting, Baker will be fine, if he runs again. In fact I'll bet that if Baker runs again, he wins by at least 10 and if he doesn't win by at least 10, if he runs again, I'll change my username to "I was wrong" for 2 weeks, screenshot this if you may. Also this is the Senate thread, please remember to go to the Governor thread next time.

We haven't seen a poll, when we start seeing polls, I am not giving up on any race except FL due to Rubio wants to pass PR Statehood

This is a total non-sequitur

[beesley]

Safe R.

I hope Eric Greitens does run, to be honest. He's very much the 'safe choice' for everyone, both for the GOP as a candidate and as a better Senator than either Blunt or Hawley.

Greitens is the least safe choice for the GOP.

Forget I ever said that - just read into it a bit more. Oops!

[WD]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

You're....not serious right....


You seriously think Baker is going to lose just because MA is a blue state? That's some of the laziest analysis ever, Baker won in a massive Dem wave even as Democrats won the Senate race in a romp and swept each congressional district, New England has a tradition of ticket splitting, Baker will be fine, if he runs again. In fact I'll bet that if Baker runs again, he wins by at least 10 and if he doesn't win by at least 10, if he runs again, I'll change my username to "I was wrong" for 2 weeks, screenshot this if you may. Also this is the Senate thread, please remember to go to the Governor thread next time.

We haven't seen a poll, when we start seeing polls, I am not giving up on any race except FL due to Rubio wants to pass PR Statehood

This is a total non-sequitur

Why are you questioning God? C’mon man.

[jamestroll]

This race is still safe R for now barring unforeseen developments.

With hindsight, McCaskill was stronger than she looked for a Missouri Democrat but the state has gone off the deep end in being heavily GOP. And let's predict pretty firmly that in 2024 that Missouri will absolutely vote to the right of Utah.

I honestly believe that Blunt and Portman retiring is just a conspiracy. The GOP knows they could lose WI, NC, and PA so they are forcing Blunt and Portman to retire as bait for Democrats who will inevitably spend all the money and resources in Ohio and Missouri.

But the thought of Senator Greitens makes me want to vomit.  Makes me feel more ill than when I had covid.

[beesley]

Weird 5  senate republicans and zero democrats are retiring. Maybe they know something we don't.

I wouldn't read much into it:

Burr - had to retire, had announced his retirement ages ago but his scandal + impeachment vote would make him unviable
Shelby - age
Toomey - long-term dissatisfaction with the GOP and treatment by Trump/risk of a Trump-backed primary challenger and not safe in the general
Blunt and Portman - more surprising, but very much politicians of a previous era who don't fit in with today's GOP, just young enough to still be considered surprising retirements/young Senators

Plus all the Democrats in vulnerable states are young/new Senators, as are many of the ones in safe states. Leahy could still announce his retirement, but he's safe and may be a lifer.  

[jamestroll]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

Sabato are still head and shoulders above other forecasters (see them being the only ones to get Florida right in 2020), but this is pretty embarrassing.

They also moved IA-SEN 2020 to Lean D a few weeks before the election and predicted that it was more likely to flip than NC and GA. You shouldn’t be surprised.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/

I get that the pundits' entire shtick only revolves around incumbency and open seats (and literally nothing else, apparently), but doing it in the case of Roy Blunt in Missouri who so clearly is a notoriously flawed incumbent is just the ultimate evidence that no substance is behind said shtick, not that we needed that evidence.

In Miles and Sabato's defense though

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368999916585054219

[GALeftist]

More like Likely R -> Safe R lol

[jamestroll]

I am unsure if the GOP can sustain the 76% that Trump earned in rural Missouri in 2020.

But a major problem for the Missouri Democrats are its suburbs. Suburbs on both sides of the state often showed promising polling for the Democrats only to falter majorly. Even with some racial depolarization during the 2020 election, the suburbs on both sides of the state are still very white. 

And they have no special niches that Democrats could appeal too.

[Tekken_Guy]

This race is still safe R for now barring unforeseen developments.

With hindsight, McCaskill was stronger than she looked for a Missouri Democrat but the state has gone off the deep end in being heavily GOP. And let's predict pretty firmly that in 2024 that Missouri will absolutely vote to the right of Utah.

I honestly believe that Blunt and Portman retiring is just a conspiracy. The GOP knows they could lose WI, NC, and PA so they are forcing Blunt and Portman to retire as bait for Democrats who will inevitably spend all the money and resources in Ohio and Missouri.

But the thought of Senator Greitens makes me want to vomit.  Makes me feel more ill than when I had covid.

If that's the case, why not bait them with a nice Rubio retirement?

[Left Wing]

I wonder how Kander would be doing right now if he had run ahead of Hillary just a little bit more and won. He’d easily be the most vulnerable senator in 2022 but I’m not sure if he would have been declared DOA or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More like Likely R -> Safe R lol

No it's not, everyone thought Jon Ossoff couldn't win, and Sifton has great looking appeal towards WC females like Ossoff and Jeff Jackson, no one knows what will happen in 2022,  which is 21 mnths away

2016 thinks the Election is tomorrow and so does French Republican.

WC females like Blue Dogs like Jeff Jackson and Sifton, look at Jon Ossoff, he is youngest only 33

[Young Conservative]

I wonder how Kander would be doing right now if he had run ahead of Hillary just a little bit more and won. He’d easily be the most vulnerable senator in 2022 but I’m not sure if he would have been declared DOA or not.

Kander would have voted to impeach Trump and opposed his SCOTUS justices in a state Trump would have won by 2022. He would be DOA absolutely.

[Tekken_Guy]

What’s your thoughts on Katie Walsh as a senate candidate?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Walsh_(politician)

She seems like MO’s version of Jane Timken. Someone who can appeal to both mainstream GOPers and the Trump base. She’s a longtime RNC staffer, but later worked for Trump for the first few months of his term and then took a role at America First Policies, a leading pro-Trump advocacy group.

[I’m not Stu]

What’s your thoughts on Katie Walsh as a senate candidate?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Walsh_(politician)

She seems like MO’s version of Jane Timken. Someone who can appeal to both mainstream GOPers and the Trump base. She’s a longtime RNC staffer, but later worked for Trump for the first few months of his term and then took a role at America First Policies, a leading pro-Trump advocacy group.

No chance of winning the nomination, despite supporting Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

What’s your thoughts on Katie Walsh as a senate candidate?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Walsh_(politician)

She seems like MO’s version of Jane Timken. Someone who can appeal to both mainstream GOPers and the Trump base. She’s a longtime RNC staffer, but later worked for Trump for the first few months of his term and then took a role at America First Policies, a leading pro-Trump advocacy group.

No chance of winning the nomination, despite supporting Trump.

Why not?

[I’m not Stu]

What’s your thoughts on Katie Walsh as a senate candidate?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Walsh_(politician)

She seems like MO’s version of Jane Timken. Someone who can appeal to both mainstream GOPers and the Trump base. She’s a longtime RNC staffer, but later worked for Trump for the first few months of his term and then took a role at America First Policies, a leading pro-Trump advocacy group.

No chance of winning the nomination, despite supporting Trump.

Why not?

They would rather vote for a candidate who frequently makes incendiary remarks.

[Hope For A New Era]

But the thought of Senator Greitens makes me want to vomit.  Makes me feel more ill than when I had covid.

Pretty horrible yes, but might be a blessing in disguise. Democrats could uno-reverse-card the "every Democrat is AOC" tactic. And it's not like he'd vote any differently from Blunt.

I am unsure if the GOP can sustain the 76% that Trump earned in rural Missouri in 2020.

I don't think it's sustainable. Most rural counties will probably bounce back to around Hawley's performance level, or a bit to the right of that.

But a major problem for the Missouri Democrats are its suburbs. Suburbs on both sides of the state often showed promising polling for the Democrats only to falter majorly. Even with some racial depolarization during the 2020 election, the suburbs on both sides of the state are still very white.  

Falter how? Missouri is literally the only state in the Midwest where Democrats made state legislative gains. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan had unchanged composition, Republicans gained everywhere else.

I really am becoming more and more confident that Missouri has finally turned the corner. Today I discovered just how close Faleti and Canady came to losing Boone (just 492 and 1017 votes away respectively), even as Biden won the county by 12 points. As trends slowly creep down the ballot, Missouri Democrats have nowhere to go but up.

Of course, it's a very long way up to be truly competitive again. This Senate seat is still Likely R at best. But it's a start.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obviously this is safe R, even with someone like Kander.

What's on my mind more with this is that Blunt really could have voted for Trump's conviction after all but didn't. He, Portman, and Shelby had nothing to lose yet chose to give Trump another pass. Maybe they're true believers?

[Pericles]

It's silly how some media commentary is saying Blunt's decision was a blow to the Republican Party, this seat is even safer than it was before.

[Horsemask]

Safe R no matter what. Even Greitens or however you spell that asshole's name would win handily.

[VAR]

Miles should come on here and explain that decision.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1369058059457359877?s=19

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1369059790324965387

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So if Greitens ran would it be akin to what happened in 2012?
Sorry couldn't help myself lol