MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are targeting in 2022 FL, GA, NC, PA and WI.  If we get a good recruit in FL, Rubio will go down. He is out there with DeSantis saying Trump won, which he didn't

[Frenchrepublican]

I'm not saying that Blunt is a extraordinary strong candidate but having a -3 approval rate in a poll which overestimated Biden by 8 and Galloway by 11 is not that bad.

As for Greitens if he were to run I guess that would get the Moore / Kobach treatment and would have a hard time getting nominated.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1328331495380054018

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Democrats aren’t going to win Missouri through demographic change alone. They’re going to have to find a way to appeal to rural voters.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats aren’t going to win Missouri through demographic change alone. They’re going to have to find a way to appeal to rural voters.

Rural voters made it loud and clear this election that they are done with the Democratic Party. They see the Democrats as an anti-American, socialist party that is antagonistic to their values, and what can the Democrats do to challenge this notion? If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if rural areas continue to trend even farther away from the Party in years to come.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

He's right, but I would love if he lived in a state that he could get elected statewide more easily. Then again, part of his appeal is that Missouri is a cornerstone of his identity. Hopefully he can be a Stacey Abrams-esque figure in that state.

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats aren’t going to win Missouri through demographic change alone. They’re going to have to find a way to appeal to rural voters.

[/b]

They can't. Rural voters have gone full fascist, and will not vote for Democrats no matter what. That's why this race is Safe R whether Blunt retires or not.

[Young Conservative]

Democrats aren’t going to win Missouri through demographic change alone. They’re going to have to find a way to appeal to rural voters.

[/b]

They can't. Rural voters have gone full fascist, and will not vote for Democrats no matter what. That's why this race is Safe R whether Blunt retires or not.

Pretty sure calling rural voters fascists just because they don’t vote for socialism and the “woke” culture war isn’t the way to win them or the senate back....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Democrats aren’t going to win Missouri through demographic change alone. They’re going to have to find a way to appeal to rural voters.

They can't. Rural voters have gone full fascist, and will not vote for Democrats no matter what. That's why this race is Safe R whether Blunt retires or not.

Pretty sure calling rural voters fascists just because they don’t vote for socialism and the “woke” culture war isn’t the way to win them or the senate back....

That’s not what candidates have been doing. They can be changed at the margins, but individual candidates and campaigns have largely proven unable to reverse rural-suburban trends. The national parties didn’t change it this cycle, either.

I’m not saying they shouldn’t try, but it may well be infeasible without policy changes that aren’t going to happen. In that case, Missouri is gone for Democrats regardless of how many moderate heroes they run there. It’s certainly safe R in a 2022 federal race (I assume Greitens isn’t going to manage an upset).

[Suburbia]

I think Galloway holds on and wins reelection in 2022 to her Auditor seat.

She has to distance from AOC/Omar and run a Jay Nixon-type campaign

She can run up the score in STL and KC

She could run again for governor in 2024

As for MO-SEN 2022, it is Likely R since Kander won't run

The MO Dems should let Kander be the chair.

[Figueira]

Rematches usually don't work, there's no reason to expect 2022 to be a particularly good environment, and Kander has a lot of potential that would be ruined by another loss, so it's probably best that he isn't running.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cool, Safe R --> Safe R.

[Left Wing]

Keep in mind that people decline bids and then run all the time. Not saying he will, but good to keep in mind.

[MoreThanPolitics]

I think Galloway holds on and wins reelection in 2022 to her Auditor seat.

She has to distance from AOC/Omar and run a Jay Nixon-type campaign

She can run up the score in STL and KC

She could run again for governor in 2024

As for MO-SEN 2022, it is Likely R since Kander won't run

The MO Dems should let Kander be the chair.

Lol no, Galloway is DOA in a Biden midterm

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

[Roll Roons]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?

[GALeftist]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?

I'd argue that TX is not in the same tier given that Beto revitalized the Texas Dems. Ron Johnson is not as hated, but he could also very plausibly go down.

[jamestroll]

I do not know if Galloway will even run for re-election for auditor. lmao

[Left Wing]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?

NY will almost certainly be this in reverse for Republicans, doubly so if one of the Trumps run.

[Kuumo]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?

Probably Rand Paul or Marco Rubio. They have the biggest national profiles, although they aren't as hated as Cruz, McConnell, and Graham.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?

It is not gonna be Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Crapo, Young, Moran, Kennedy, Blunt, Burr (retiring), Hoevan, Portman, Toomey (because he is retiring, otherwise possibly could be), Lankford, Scott, or Thune.

Who does that leave? Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ron Johnson

Ron Johnson to some degree would fit as a boogeyman, but the thing with Johnson is that Wisconsin is a competitive state, and if you are going to throw money anywhere you should throw it there. I don't really expect Dems to win WI since it will be a Biden midterm (unless something like a 9/11 or something happens and changes the usual midterm dynamics), but if you are putting in money anywhere you are putting it into WI, regardless of the candidates. So putting a bunch of money into WI can't really be considered a total waste in the same way that putting money into Kentucky was this year.

For Rubio/Florida it is a somewhat similar situation there, although I guess you can argue with the recent results in FL that it is R leaning enough that it is a waste to put in any real effort.

Mike Lee in Utah could be a possibility maybe, but I feel like he is not really well enough known.

However, Rand Paul is well enough known to be a target of idiots who have a lot of money to waste in a totally unwinnable state.

So it seems like fairly slim pickings of well known boogeyman Rs running in safe states this year. We were really spoiled last year by having both McConnell and Graham running in unwinnable states.

[lfromnj]

Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).

I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?

I'd argue that TX is not in the same tier given that Beto revitalized the Texas Dems. Ron Johnson is not as hated, but he could also very plausibly go down.

It was still unwinnable in 2020 although IIRC its not even like Hegar took that much relative to Texas's size.

[Del Tachi]

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

Perfect description of why Blunt is one of my favorites!

[MATTROSE94]

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

Perfect description of why Blunt is one of my favorites!

You are one weird person. I thought you were a #populist in the mold of your god emperors Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Roy Blunt is anything but a populist.

[MarkD]

Folks, stop talking as if Missouri's rural areas control the whole state's politics. They don't. Look at the cartograms in this thread. Look at how much power the urban and suburban areas of Missouri have compared to the rural counties. And look at the 2018 election of Nicole Galloway to a full term as State Auditor. She won St. Louis County by over a two-to-one margin (which no other Democrat has ever been able to do); she won both urban and suburban parts of Jackson County; she won Boone County by over a two-to-one margin. She won Clay, Platte, Cole, and Greene Counties; she barely won Buchanan and St. Charles Counties by extremely thin margins, and she came close to winning Jefferson County (48.2% for McDowell to 45.0% for Galloway). Losing nearly every single rural county did not matter.

Any Missouri Democrat running for a statewide office only needs to do one thing: campaign on a strategy of getting as many votes as possible, all over the state, without worrying about whether your message is more appealling to one region than to another.