MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are concentrating on AZ, PA, WI, GA right now for 2022, MO like FL and NC in 2022 can wait. Especially if Ducey decided to run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless Galloway whom will lose to Parson run for this seat, D's don't have much of a bench in MO. This poll probably is testing voters and they have a positive response to Galloway, but they want Parson to remain as Gov, that's why Blunts approval is so low

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't get why Blunt is so unpopular. Anyways, MO's partisan lean, polarization, and the probable R tilt of the year all make this likely R.

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BYERS REMORSE TOWARDS CLAIRE MCCASKILL BLOWING IT IN 2018
Let's hope D's can get Greitans to run as a D, that's the only hope to get Blunt out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are targeting in 2022 FL, GA, NC, PA and WI.  If we get a good recruit in FL, Rubio will go down. He is out there with DeSantis saying Trump won, which he didn't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Safe R anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55/45 Senators and 240 House D

Lucky break for SIFTON

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The rankings aren't gonna move until Redistricting, but since Sifton has WC appeal towards WC female voters, like Jon Ossoff does, we are gonna win NC, MO just like we won GA.

Female voters voters like Jon Ossoff, Kennedy, Jackson and Sifton 55/45 and 240 H Seats.

These are wave insurance seats

WC Females like J.Fetterman too that's why Fetterman will beat Keyenatta and Jackson will both win over AA candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since the battleground of the Senate is expanding it will help us in our House races, my guess is Grassley and Johnson retires next

Sifton, Jackson, Ryan, Fetterman and Nelson can follow the Job Ossoff model of tapping into WC females for their votes

My guess is that Mcconnell is giving his blessings to any of his members to retire since he too wants to get out of a 2 T Bidenadmin


French Republican, who said Blunt was easily gonna win, where is he now, just like he predicted GA was going R and Jon Ossoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican will later come on and say it's safe R, but this hurts R

Rs don't know the meaning of WAVE INSURANCE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

Biden has a net positive rating in GA, NC and TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ratings of Cook and Sabato are faulty, they look at Prez race numbers, the only state D's won't win is FL, DeSANTIS has a 57 percent job Approvals, not job Approvals and Biden is net positive in red states, that's why we can win in MO, OH, NC not based solely on Prez ratings

DeWine lost before in 2006 that's why he only beat Cordray by 3, he, along with Kemp and Baker are vulnerable R INCUMBENTs.

As AG,DeWine easily won those races, he ran against a nobody

You're....not serious right....


You seriously think Baker is going to lose just because MA is a blue state? That's some of the laziest analysis ever, Baker won in a massive Dem wave even as Democrats won the Senate race in a romp and swept each congressional district, New England has a tradition of ticket splitting, Baker will be fine, if he runs again. In fact I'll bet that if Baker runs again, he wins by at least 10 and if he doesn't win by at least 10, if he runs again, I'll change my username to "I was wrong" for 2 weeks, screenshot this if you may. Also this is the Senate thread, please remember to go to the Governor thread next time.

We haven't seen a poll, when we start seeing polls, I am not giving up on any race except FL due to Rubio wants to pass PR Statehood

DeSantis has a 57 percent approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More like Likely R -> Safe R lol

No it's not, everyone thought Jon Ossoff couldn't win, and Sifton has great looking appeal towards WC females like Ossoff and Jeff Jackson, no one knows what will happen in 2022,  which is 21 mnths away

2016 thinks the Election is tomorrow and so does French Republican.

WC females like Blue Dogs like Jeff Jackson and Sifton, look at Jon Ossoff, he is youngest only 33

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's silly how some media commentary is saying Blunt's decision was a blow to the Republican Party, this seat is even safer than it was before.

It is silly to think that D's are saying this seat is safe R and it's not because the D can win 55 seats, the flaw in ratings is they assume the Prez model and Biden has net positive approval ratings as Bush W 2001-2005 levels, but the Rs can believe that Rs can't lose seats when a Prez Approvals are above 50 Biden can

The Election is 21 mnths, you also said Rs was gonna win GA.

I have GA Dem on my map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R no matter what. Even Greitens or however you spell that asshole's name would win handily.

It's safe R now, but the Election is 21 mnths from now, it's called wave insurance like GA, NC, MO and OH, but if Blunt or Portman or Burr never retired we wouldn't even have a path to win except WI and PA and we would have to deal with Manchin and Sinema again in 2023

Now we have wave Insurance states that will get us to 52 without GA Runoffs and NC will get us there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Scott Sifton is our nominee, he has WC appeal to females like Jon Ossoff does and so does Jeff Jackson, when the maps come out I will be coloring this D, despite what Rs think.


Canter and Paul Ryan appeal to WC Females due to their looks but Sifton, Jackson or Ryan can't, just like Biden can lose seats with 50 PERCENT polls but Bush W in 2002 can't.  

Just remember, Rs only had a 15 Majority and we were supposed to have Speaker Gephardt

Not 40 Percent Trump and Obama lost Midterms due to UNPOPULARITY of Obamacare

Yeah it's gonna be tough to win 55 seats but it's doable due to Biden 55 percent Approvals and it's 21 mnths from now
.Johnson and Grassley may retiire too making a path to 56 seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another D thinks this race is safe R, go look at Biden Approvals I'm pbower2A, and it will show Biden is net positive in MO, IA, OH, NC, GA, WI, NH and PA all Senatorial battlegrounds as well as NV and AZ , please Safe R business, and neither is IA if Grassley retires it's called wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sifton is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sifton is a good candidate, he has the best chance of winning now like Kander did in 2016, you can't apply normal Midterm dynamics when Prez Biden is getting everyone vaccinated, I just got Covid vaccine

Now, the reopening begins

Rs want you to believe the Election is tomorrow with their Predictions of an R House but it's 21 mnths away

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's probably have enough targets with the exception of FL and Crust and Stephanie Murphy, D's probably all set with 54/46 Senate map but can get to 55/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greitens is worse than Akin and as bad as Roy Moore, so I don’t think it’s out of the question if he’s the nominee the Democrats could win the seat. Though I doubt he can win a primary.

I am interested in Charles Booker running, Paul made a silly comment about AA dropping out of HS due to minimium wage and the Minimum wage isn't keeping out of Housing cost and most parents won't let their kids stay with them if they drop out of HS. Booker can capitalize on that comment

Beshear is popular and this isn't 2020 with Mcconnell

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurence anyways, MO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All Republican Senate Retirements for 2022 are Lean to Likely R except for Pennsylvania. The only way Democrats will have the Senate after next years Midterm Elections is if they pass D. C. and Puerto Rico Statehood which explains why they are pushing so hard for this in the House.

These Socialist Clowns want a total Power Grab for the next Decade. It remains how this will play out over the next 18 months with the Average American Voter.

The Rs already stacked the Crts with 300 Judges, of course it's a power grab 2016, just like Rs made the power grab with Garland being blocked

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares,. greitans is the worse candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The background checks in Boulder on guns is gonna resurrect the freiwall again, D's aren't winning MO based on gun control

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican puts all these long post about how Rs are gonna win and we got 1400 and getting UBI benefits from Unemployment extension 18M, are gonna go into Atlas users from Prez Biden that even Rs got and he was wrong about GA, you think he would have learned, everything isn't about 2018 it's about 2008 and 2012


I bet the very ones trying to get D's out of office, since more Rs work than D are on extended Unemployment benefits, give back your benefits if you are not satisfied which they wont do