MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

[beesley]

Is it-is it Kander time?!

He's not running.

[One Term Floridian]

Is it-is it Kander time?!

He's not running.

Yeah just read. Dang. I don’t suppose there’s any reason to rate this below Safe R, is there?

[ElectionsGuy]

Miles should come on here and explain that decision.

[Roll Roons]

Is it-is it Kander time?!

He's not running.

Yeah just read. Dang. I don’t suppose there’s any reason to rate this below Safe R, is there?

No. Perhaps there could be a slight opening for Democrats in Ohio, but Missouri is much redder.

[One Term Floridian]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

[If my soul was made of stone]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

Sabato are still head and shoulders above other forecasters (see them being the only ones to get Florida right in 2020), but this is pretty embarrassing.

[One Term Floridian]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

Sabato are still head and shoulders above other forecasters (see them being the only ones to get Florida right in 2020), but this is pretty embarrassing.

Yeah without an A-list candidate like Kander in the works MO is pretty much an impossible flip unless the MO GOP throws us a Roy Moore tier candidate

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

Frankly AL should be Tossup, after all the last time a democrat won a Senate seat in MO was in 2012 while in AL a democrat won a #open seat in 2017 (probably because Trump was not on the ballot).

[One Term Floridian]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

Frankly AL should be Tossup, after all the last time a democrat won a Senate seat in MO was in 2012 while in AL a democrat won a #open seat in 2017 (probably because Trump was not on the ballot).

Sabato should be hiring u

[MT Treasurer]

LOL - These people will never learn

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1368963820367020036?s=20

I for one am outraged he didn’t do the same in AL after the Shelby retirement

Sabato are still head and shoulders above other forecasters (see them being the only ones to get Florida right in 2020), but this is pretty embarrassing.

They also moved IA-SEN 2020 to Lean D a few weeks before the election and predicted that it was more likely to flip than NC and GA. You shouldn’t be surprised.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/

I get that the pundits' entire shtick only revolves around incumbency and open seats (and literally nothing else, apparently), but doing it in the case of Roy Blunt in Missouri who so clearly is a notoriously flawed incumbent is just the ultimate evidence that no substance is behind said shtick, not that we needed that evidence.

[Frenchrepublican]

At least this guy gets it
https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1368945739838160902?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The rankings aren't gonna move until Redistricting, but since Sifton has WC appeal towards WC female voters, like Jon Ossoff does, we are gonna win NC, MO just like we won GA.

Female voters voters like Jon Ossoff, Kennedy, Jackson and Sifton 55/45 and 240 H Seats.

These are wave insurance seats

WC Females like J.Fetterman too that's why Fetterman will beat Keyenatta and Jackson will both win over AA candidates

[Frenchrepublican]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

This is absurd, even by your standards, Biden's popularity is at -21 in MO so it is very unlikely that Blunt is retiring because he is seeing ''the writing on the wall'', and even assuming that democrats will get a decent midterm, which is not backed by the facts outside of some national polls where Biden voters are massively oversampled, it is hard to see how the climate could be good enough for them to win in a red state like Missouri.

As for Blunt, the dude is probably retiring because he wants to make more money as a lobbyist (1) or because he is tired of Trump's influence among the GOP base (2).

[brucejoel99]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

This is absurd, even by your standards, Biden's popularity is at -21 in MO so it is very unlikely that Blunt is retiring because he is seeing ''the writing on the wall'', and even assuming that democrats will get a decent midterm, which is not backed by the facts outside of some national polls where Biden voters are massively oversampled, it is hard to see how the climate could be good enough for them to win in a red state like Missouri.

As for Blunt, the dude is probably retiring because he wants to make more money as a lobbyist (1) or because he is tired of Trump's influence among the GOP base (2).

...

I- no, no words. Just lol.

Where did I even so much as imply (let alone outright state, as you're acting as if I did) that this had anything to do with Blunt as an individual or a state like MO in particular? Obviously, Blunt (&, not to mention, Senators like Portman, Burr, Toomey, & Shelby, though the latter admittedly might just be retiring on account of his age moreso than anything else) could & would win re-election if he sought it. That's not at all a question here. It goes without saying, which is why I didn't feel the need to say it, because it isn't something that should've even required an explicit statement thereof such as this.

What I was very clearly getting at (& which nobody else evidently had any problems understanding) is that Republican senators on the whole don't seem to be gung-ho with the possibility of what could be a long-haul tenure (i.e. >2 years) in the minority, & aren't inclined to remain in such a situation if they feel that they don't have to. Hence a retirement like Blunt's. Hence retirements like Portman's, & Burr's, & Toomey's, & possibly Shelby's.

Jesus, did I murder your cat or something? Seriously, what made you so blind with an evident hostility for me &/or my #analysis (given your blatantly uncalled-for "aBsUrD, eVeN bY yOuR sTaNdArDs" remark) that you completely f**king missed the underlying point thereof that was otherwise clear-as-day for seemingly everybody else?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since the battleground of the Senate is expanding it will help us in our House races, my guess is Grassley and Johnson retires next

Sifton, Jackson, Ryan, Fetterman and Nelson can follow the Job Ossoff model of tapping into WC females for their votes

My guess is that Mcconnell is giving his blessings to any of his members to retire since he too wants to get out of a 2 T Bidenadmin


French Republican, who said Blunt was easily gonna win, where is he now, just like he predicted GA was going R and Jon Ossoff

[One Term Floridian]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

This is absurd, even by your standards, Biden's popularity is at -21 in MO so it is very unlikely that Blunt is retiring because he is seeing ''the writing on the wall'', and even assuming that democrats will get a decent midterm, which is not backed by the facts outside of some national polls where Biden voters are massively oversampled, it is hard to see how the climate could be good enough for them to win in a red state like Missouri.

As for Blunt, the dude is probably retiring because he wants to make more money as a lobbyist (1) or because he is tired of Trump's influence among the GOP base (2).

...

I- no, no words. Just lol.

Where did I even so much as imply (let alone outright state, as you're acting as if I did) that this had anything to do with Blunt as an individual or a state like MO in particular? Obviously, Blunt (&, not to mention, Senators like Portman, Burr, Toomey, & Shelby, though the latter admittedly might just be retiring on account of his age moreso than anything else) could & would win re-election if he sought it. That's not at all a question here. It goes without saying, which is why I didn't feel the need to say it, because it isn't something that should've even required an explicit statement thereof such as this.

What I was very clearly getting at (& which nobody else evidently had any problems understanding) is that Republican senators on the whole don't seem to be gung-ho with the possibility of what could be a long-haul tenure (i.e. >2 years) in the minority, & aren't inclined to remain in such a situation if they feel that they don't have to. Hence a retirement like Blunt's. Hence retirements like Portman's, & Burr's, & Toomey's, & possibly Shelby's.

Jesus, did I murder your cat or something? Seriously, what made you so blind with an evident hostility for me &/or my #analysis (given your blatantly uncalled-for "aBsUrD, eVeN bY yOuR sTaNdArDs" remark) that you completely f**king missed the underlying point thereof that was otherwise clear-as-day for seemingly everybody else?

Children, children RELAX. We are understandably all in mourning now that the Senate will be losing its marijuana activist Roy “Shaggy” Blunt but we have to be more civil than this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican will later come on and say it's safe R, but this hurts R

Rs don't know the meaning of WAVE INSURANCE

[Lognog]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

This is absurd, even by your standards, Biden's popularity is at -21 in MO so it is very unlikely that Blunt is retiring because he is seeing ''the writing on the wall'', and even assuming that democrats will get a decent midterm, which is not backed by the facts outside of some national polls where Biden voters are massively oversampled, it is hard to see how the climate could be good enough for them to win in a red state like Missouri.

As for Blunt, the dude is probably retiring because he wants to make more money as a lobbyist (1) or because he is tired of Trump's influence among the GOP base (2).

...

I- no, no words. Just lol.

Where did I even so much as imply (let alone outright state, as you're acting as if I did) that this had anything to do with Blunt as an individual or a state like MO in particular? Obviously, Blunt (&, not to mention, Senators like Portman, Burr, Toomey, & Shelby, though the latter admittedly might just be retiring on account of his age moreso than anything else) could & would win re-election if he sought it. That's not at all a question here. It goes without saying, which is why I didn't feel the need to say it, because it isn't something that should've even required an explicit statement thereof such as this.

What I was very clearly getting at (& which nobody else evidently had any problems understanding) is that Republican senators on the whole don't seem to be gung-ho with the possibility of what could be a long-haul tenure (i.e. >2 years) in the minority, & aren't inclined to remain in such a situation if they feel that they don't have to. Hence a retirement like Blunt's. Hence retirements like Portman's, & Burr's, & Toomey's, & possibly Shelby's.

Jesus, did I murder your cat or something? Seriously, what made you so blind with an evident hostility for me &/or my #analysis (given your blatantly uncalled-for "aBsUrD, eVeN bY yOuR sTaNdArDs" remark) that you completely f**king missed the underlying point thereof that was otherwise clear-as-day for seemingly everybody else?

I really don't think any of them are retiring because they don't want to be in the minority

Shelby is retiring bc he's about a million years old
Portman just hates being in the Trump era senate
Toomey just hates being in the Trump era GOP
Burr is retiring bc of the massive insider trading scandal he had

as for Blunt he is retiring because of what French republican said

[Coldstream]

Eric Greitens considering running. Some people don’t know when to quit.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/former-missouri-gov-eric-greitens-evaluating-u-s-senate-run-criticizes-incumbent-roy-blunt/article_2331e60a-ef02-593b-932b-67734a5bb51f.html

[Alcibiades]

Safe R.

I hope Eric Greitens does run, to be honest. He's very much the 'safe choice' for everyone, both for the GOP as a candidate and as a better Senator than either Blunt or Hawley.

Greitens is the least safe choice for the GOP.

[Xing]

While this was always going to be Safe R, this is further evidence that Republicans are much smarter about when they retire in the Senate.

[One Term Floridian]

Since the battleground of the Senate is expanding it will help us in our House races, my guess is Grassley and Johnson retires next

Sifton, Jackson, Ryan, Fetterman and Nelson can follow the Job Ossoff model of tapping into WC females for their votes

My guess is that Mcconnell is giving his blessings to any of his members to retire since he too wants to get out of a 2 T Bidenadmin


French Republican, who said Blunt was easily gonna win, where is he now, just like he predicted GA was going R and Jon Ossoff

There’s no way Ron Johnson is retiring

[Tekken_Guy]

Since the battleground of the Senate is expanding it will help us in our House races, my guess is Grassley and Johnson retires next

Sifton, Jackson, Ryan, Fetterman and Nelson can follow the Job Ossoff model of tapping into WC females for their votes

My guess is that Mcconnell is giving his blessings to any of his members to retire since he too wants to get out of a 2 T Bidenadmin


French Republican, who said Blunt was easily gonna win, where is he now, just like he predicted GA was going R and Jon Ossoff

There’s no way Ron Johnson is retiring

He said he was leaning towards it.

[politics_king]

Since the battleground of the Senate is expanding it will help us in our House races, my guess is Grassley and Johnson retires next

Sifton, Jackson, Ryan, Fetterman and Nelson can follow the Job Ossoff model of tapping into WC females for their votes

My guess is that Mcconnell is giving his blessings to any of his members to retire since he too wants to get out of a 2 T Bidenadmin


French Republican, who said Blunt was easily gonna win, where is he now, just like he predicted GA was going R and Jon Ossoff

There’s no way Ron Johnson is retiring

He said he was leaning towards it.

Hope so. He's a stain on the Senate right now.