MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[SnowLabrador]

If even Claire McCaskill couldn't win re-election in 2018, there's no way any Democrat beats Roy Blunt in 2022, especially if Biden is President. Sorry, this one won't be too interesting.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Missouri Democrats have a pretty strong track record of beating Republicans who are widely recognized as insane, terrible candidates. Obviously Greitens could still win, but against a good candidate he would not be a shoo-in. It may have been a gubernatorial race, but he only won by 5% when he WASN'T damaged goods.

This will be a Biden midterm, and Missouri is even redder than it was in 2016. After Claire McCaskill's 6-point loss to Josh Hawley, and Nicole Galloway's 17-point loss to Mike Parson, it really isn't possible.

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats aren’t going to win Missouri through demographic change alone. They’re going to have to find a way to appeal to rural voters.

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They can't. Rural voters have gone full fascist, and will not vote for Democrats no matter what. That's why this race is Safe R whether Blunt retires or not.

[SnowLabrador]

This is Safe R no matter what.

[SnowLabrador]

Whoa...

[SnowLabrador]

Weird 5  senate republicans and zero democrats are retiring. Maybe they know something we don't.

Hopefully it means that Democrats will do well in the midterms.

[SnowLabrador]

This race is Safe R even if Jay Nixon runs. We've seen this story before, and it doesn't end well for the Democratic governor running in a Republican state. That's how asymmetric polarization works.

[SnowLabrador]

This is Safe R even if Greitens wins the primary. I don't think he will, though; the GOP will move heaven and earth to make sure he doesn't.

[SnowLabrador]

This is going to be Kansas 2020 all over again. Eric Schmitt is the Roger Marshall of MO.

Pretty much. Even if Greitens is the nominee, which he won't be, he will win by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

Quinton Lucas met with DSCC and is seriously considering, Luetkemeyer is also considering.

I hope he runs. He’d be a formidable candidate.

It doesn't matter, this race is Safe R no matter what happens.

[SnowLabrador]

This guy absolutely rules and I wish he stood any chance of winning.

https://twitter.com/LucasKunceMO/status/1402672727534735373?s=20

Not only does he rule, he has the same first name as me.

[SnowLabrador]

We've seen this story before. If Nixon runs, he will lose by 10-15 points even though the polls have it as a tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

[SnowLabrador]

Let's go Lucas!!!!!

Fun fact: My IRL name is Lucas. So I'm rooting for this guy even more, not that it'll matter.

[SnowLabrador]

Scott Sifton has dropped out and endorsed Trudy Busch Valentine, heir to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, who entered yesterday morning.

Who do we think is the better Dem prospect here? Kunce or Busch?

It doesn't matter. Look how much McCaskill lost by in a blue wave. This is a red wave. Democrats shouldn't spend any money on this race.