COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Moreover, Larimer County, Colorado reinstated its mask mandate, using ICU capacity as their justification. Some jurisdictions certainly do seem to be doubling down on masks.

Hmm, if only we had a vaccine.

Oh, wait.

[compucomp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

The table is symmetric because it's only an arithmetic transformation of the CDC's 15-minute "time to infectious dose" threshold for contact tracing (an assumption that has no scientific basis, btw) calculated from estimates of leakage obtained from a study where different types of mask material were fitted to mannequins in a lab, lol.  If you actually read the CIDRAP post imbedded in the tweet it's quite plain in stating that public masking offers no measurable benefit in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and should be considered, at best, a tertiary method of controlling the pandemic.

The whole write-up by CIDRAP is a good read if you actually want to understand the science/politics of masking policies (i.e., not any red avatars in this thread lol) 

I can believe the table involves a lot of hand waving, but that post seems to just be anti-mask.

The slo-mo videos that show how much that droplets are hindered by masks was enough to convince me they're worth it.

Re-running the pandemic with all the same restrictions except no masks is the kind of evidence you would need to conclude masks did not make significance difference. Obviously, we can't do that, so we'll never know.

There is evidence in the school setting of the effectiveness of mask mandates, according to studies released by the CDC.

But in general, the effectiveness of mask mandates is not completely tied to the overall spread of the virus, as a mask mandate can only be effective when it is in force and for the entire pandemic in the USA there has been little enforcement of the rules for private gatherings. Contact tracing was poor, so we can't be sure, but the spread of coronavirus here was probably driven by indoor gatherings turned superspreader events. What mask mandates (and social distancing requirements) did was to make public places relatively safe, so you probably didn't catch COVID-19 going to the grocery store. If you went to someone's birthday party, then you probably took off your mask and you didn't observe social distancing, and so you were at high risk if someone at the party was infected, but that's not the mask mandate's fault.

[Badger]

I'm not getting any boosters. The governments of the world need to concentrate on getting shots to unvaccinated people, especially since unlike the United States people around the globe are desperate for these vaccines.

I've made this same point myself. People in Africa, Asia, and Latin America would crawl over broken glass to obtain the vaccine. We are so privileged, and it's a disgrace that so many people in this country don't want to get vaccinated.

[emailking]

White House details plan to roll out Covid-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11

The White House on Wednesday unveiled its plans to roll out Covid-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11, pending US Food and Drug Administration authorization.

The Biden administration has secured enough vaccine supply to vaccinate the 28 million children ages 5 to 11 who would become eligible for vaccination if the vaccine is authorized for that age group and will help equip more than 25,000 pediatric and primary care offices, hundreds of community health centers and rural health clinics as well as tens of thousands of pharmacies to administer the shots, according to the White House.

"Today the Biden Administration is announcing a plan to ensure that, if a vaccine is authorized for children ages 5-11, it is quickly distributed and made conveniently and equitably available to families across the country," the White House said in a news release.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/politics/white-house-covid-vaccines-for-children-rollout/index.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

White House details plan to roll out Covid-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11

The White House on Wednesday unveiled its plans to roll out Covid-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11, pending US Food and Drug Administration authorization.

The Biden administration has secured enough vaccine supply to vaccinate the 28 million children ages 5 to 11 who would become eligible for vaccination if the vaccine is authorized for that age group and will help equip more than 25,000 pediatric and primary care offices, hundreds of community health centers and rural health clinics as well as tens of thousands of pharmacies to administer the shots, according to the White House.

"Today the Biden Administration is announcing a plan to ensure that, if a vaccine is authorized for children ages 5-11, it is quickly distributed and made conveniently and equitably available to families across the country," the White House said in a news release.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/politics/white-house-covid-vaccines-for-children-rollout/index.html

If successful, these vaccinated children ought to be considered patriots and heroes for picking up the slack that so many other adults in our country refused to.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Despite lowering the vaccination age to 5, the CDC just decreed that all schoolchildren must continue to wear a mask. It's pretty obvious they want masks to be permanent.

[gerritcole]

lets wait and see what dr fauci says...

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1450778860027629568

[Hammy]

Despite lowering the vaccination age to 5, the CDC just decreed that all schoolchildren must continue to wear a mask. It's pretty obvious they want masks to be permanent.

Are you physically incapable of grasping that you're not going to suddenly have everybody that age instantly vaccinated, or do you just like using this forum to whine about things you are too lazy to apply proper context to?

[It’s so Joever]

Despite lowering the vaccination age to 5, the CDC just decreed that all schoolchildren must continue to wear a mask. It's pretty obvious they want masks to be permanent.

Are you physically incapable of grasping that you're not going to suddenly have everybody that age instantly vaccinated, or do you just like using this forum to whine about things you are too lazy to apply proper context to?

Honestly at this point I can’t even tell.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This thread feels like it's stuck in a redundant time loop:

- Weekly update showing over a thousand daily COVID deaths on average
- Folks upset at Florida for rising cases/deaths & scoffing at restrictions
- Folks upset & scoffing at places not enforcing mandates & restrictions
- Bandit3 & Horus upset & scoffing at places enforcing mandates & restrictions
- Public polling showing mandates & restrictions popular nationwide
- Repeat next week

I getting a little worried that we wouldn't meet any of the time loop requirements this week. Good thing Bandit3 came to the rescue!

[emailking]

Also, the vaccine hasn't been approved yet for children 5-11. Though that is likely, it hasn't happened yet. But the administration has a plan ready to go in the likelihood that it happens.

[Person Man]

We haven’t had a weekly COVID update in a while.

[emailking]

If you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and scroll down you can see the graphs of cases and deaths.

Cases are a bit under 50% below the last peak, and deaths are down about 20% from the last peak.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We haven’t had a weekly COVID update in a while.

U.S. case counts are crashing again. My 7-day case count is down to an average of 74,805, the lowest since July 30.

[Dr. Arch]

We haven’t had a weekly COVID update in a while.

Yeah, I missing several days and the thread of numbers was lost. Plus, I haven't found the time with moving + new job!

If someone is willing to take it up, they are more than welcome to.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1450849899478765570

Complete insanity.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1450849899478765570
Complete insanity.

That's what makes your balls grove! Nicki Minaj was right!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-biontech-report-high-efficacy-covid-19-booster-shot-study-2021-10-21/
Pfizer, BioNTech say COVID-19 booster shot showed high efficacy in large study

BERLIN, Oct 21 (Reuters) - A booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and German partner BioNTech SE (22UAy.DE) restored efficacy to 95.6% against the virus, including the Delta variant, data released by the companies from a large study showed on Thursday.

The companies said the trial, which has not been peer-reviewed, tested 10,000 participants aged 16 and older, and found that the booster shot had a favourable safety profile.

The trial results come a day after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), and said Americans could choose a different shot from their original inoculation as a booster.

The agency previously authorized boosters of the Pfizer/BioNTech shot at least six months after the first round of shots to increase protection for people aged 65 and older, those at risk of severe disease and those who are exposed to the virus through their work.

Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said the trial results add to mounting data that boosters could help in providing long-lasting protection from symptomatic infection.

There were no reported cases of severe disease, suggesting robust protection from infection with only the primary vaccination series, Yee wrote in a note.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks like global cases are unfortunately inching up again, thanks largely to yet another surge in the UK.  Does anyone have an explanation for what is happening there?  They have been averaging 30K-40K cases for almost 4 months without relief, and now they are rising again!

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1450849899478765570
Complete insanity.

That's what makes your balls grove! Nicki Minaj was right!

What is truly sickening is that millions of people believe such stuff. That people can say that the pro-vaccine people are "the most evil cabal to have ever existed" is hysteria in the extreme. I can think of far worse:







If you can come up with symbols of the Khmer Rouge, Iraqi or Syrian Ba'athism or Hutu Power (behind the Rwanda genocide), then you are welcome to add them. The Japanese symbol is of the clique that murdered millions in China, starved peoples of Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines to feed the Japanese war machine of WWII. Mercifully the KKK never got the power with which to do any large-scale genocide, but in view of its lynchings I can only imagine how horrible a KKK-dominated America would have been.

I know what evil is. It does bad things to people or allows them to happen. I don't quite compare the Confederacy to the evil causes for which I showed symbols.

[emailking]

It looks like global cases are unfortunately inching up again, thanks largely to yet another surge in the UK.  Does anyone have an explanation for what is happening there?  They have been averaging 30K-40K cases for almost 4 months without relief, and now they are rising again!

Delta+ variant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1451195065116680209

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It looks like global cases are unfortunately inching up again, thanks largely to yet another surge in the UK.  Does anyone have an explanation for what is happening there?  They have been averaging 30K-40K cases for almost 4 months without relief, and now they are rising again!

Delta+ variant.

No, the share of Delta+ is just 10% of total cases, and the current estimation is, that it "just" 10-15% more transmissible than Delta.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1ec9d5d-9e02-4cc4-95e7-1dcbb1844d43
New Delta descendant may be more infectious than its ancestor
Scientist say AY.4.2 seems to be 10%-15% more transmissible but cannot be blamed for high UK Covid-19 case numbers




I addressed a couple of possibilities here:

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

Among other things:

• they got people vaccinated very fast, especially their elders = much more people [than in EU/US] whose immunity has waned.
• they got vaccinated with AstraZeneca, especially their elders, and, unfortunately, immunity induced by Astrazeneca vanes faster.
• weather (vs India/US/South Europe) = more people are indoors
• chose to not vaccinate children (= more cases)

Here's my post about wane of immunity among the elders (+AstraZeneca).

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

"I have right to know that".

But there is plenty of info. FDA panel didn't make their decision out of the blue. Healthy young people doesn't really need any booster (for now).

https://www.ft.com/content/cf83b3a1-fe06-4c9f-999c-7500090aee7c
Why are Covid vaccine boosters needed and who in the UK will receive them?
Britain is joining nine other countries that have announced similar programmes offering an additional jab

Boosters are aimed at combating the waning immunity that has prompted an uptick in infections even among highly vaccinated populations. The level of protection provided by vaccines against severe disease and death wanes in the period beyond three months after a second dose, according to data published on Tuesday by Public Health England.

The rate of waning was found to be steepest among the most elderly and those with serious underlying health conditions.

“A booster programme for Covid-19 vaccines among the higher-risk adult population is a natural follow-on from the observed waning in vaccine effectiveness as time from the completion of primary two-shot vaccination course extends,” said Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London.

“Despite this being an apparently low fall-off [in immunity] — for example from 90 to 80 per cent protection — on a population basis that small difference is likely to translate into significant numbers of people needing hospital care for Covid.”

[...]

The UK booster rollout will begin next week, with elderly care-home residents to be offered jabs first. This will be followed by adults aged 50 years or over in age cohorts, frontline health and social care workers and younger adults with underlying health conditions.

People caring for or living with vulnerable adults will also be eligible. But no one will be offered a third vaccination less than six months after their second jab.

There are no plans to give additional jabs to people aged under 50 this year. “The benefits of booster vaccination in this group will be considered later when more information is available,” Public Health England said in a statement.

As you see, for healthy people the effectiveness [against hospital admission] barely moves. Even for healthy 65+ it went from ~99% to ~95% almost 5+ months after. For 40-64, it at 98% 4 months after... If you're younger, then it is likely even higher.

If you AstraZeneca or if you're old or is "clinically extremely vulnerable", then, of course, booster is a given thing. If you wounder about the definition of "clinically extremely vulnerable", here you go https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at-higher-risk/who-is-at-high-risk-from-coronavirus-clinically-extremely-vulnerable/

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Clinically extremely vulnerable list
You're considered clinically extremely vulnerable if:

• your doctor or GP has classed you as clinically extremely vulnerable because they think you're at high risk of getting seriously ill
• you've been identified as possibly being at high risk through the COVID-19 Population Risk Assessment
• you've had an organ transplant
• you're having chemotherapy or antibody treatment for cancer, including immunotherapy
• you're having an intense course of radiotherapy (radical radiotherapy) for lung cancer
• you're having targeted cancer treatments that can affect the immune system (such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors)
• you have blood or bone marrow cancer (such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma)
• you've had a bone marrow or stem cell transplant in the past 6 months, or are still taking immunosuppressant medicine
• you've been told by a doctor you have a severe lung condition (such as cystic fibrosis, severe asthma or severe COPD)
• you have a condition that means you have a very high risk of getting infections (such as SCID or sickle cell)
• you're taking medicine that makes you much more likely to get infections (such as high doses of steroids or immunosuppressant medicine)
• you have a serious heart condition and are pregnant
• you have a problem with your spleen or your spleen has been removed (splenectomy)
• you're an adult with Down's syndrome
• you're an adult who is having dialysis or has severe (stage 5) long-term kidney disease

Important
This list may not include everyone who is at high risk from COVID-19 and may change as we learn more about the virus.

Here is a thread with much more interesting stats from the FT journo.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100712441974786

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1451195065116680209

He should get his medical license revoked. Imagine if you had a doctor who was withholding an outright cure for an ailment you have because he cares about your "freedom." Doesn't that violate the Hippocratic Oath?

But Floridians are going to eat this s*** up like they do alligator nuggets.