COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Inmate Trump]

I think it’s a bit premature to start declaring victory. People were saying similar things back in June, and look what happened after that. I certainly hope this will be the last major wave, but I find it hard to believe that.

dOn’T bE a DoOmEr!


But yea, I agree. I want this to be the last wave but we’ve been here before and then Delta happened.

[Calthrina950]

I think it’s a bit premature to start declaring victory. People were saying similar things back in June, and look what happened after that. I certainly hope this will be the last major wave, but I find it hard to believe that.

We certainly do have to be cautious.

[emailking]

I've also heard it's possible the flu could particularly bad this winter since we basically missed it altogether last year.

[ProudModerate2]

Anti-vax and anti-mask protesters at school event: "This is rape."

At a "walk your kid to school" event at a local Los Angeles school, anti-vaccine mandate protesters confront parents and children.

Click this link to watch video ...
https://us.cnn.com/videos/us/2021/10/08/schools-mask-mandate-protest-parents-students-newday-vpx.cnn

These protesters are pathetic as they come.
Can you imagine screaming and scaring children, by telling them they are being "raped" by their parents? This was suppose to be a fun, walk-your-child-to-school event(day), and you have assh**es like this upsetting the kids and parents.
This angers me to no end.

[It’s so Joever]

I think it’s a bit premature to start declaring victory. People were saying similar things back in June, and look what happened after that. I certainly hope this will be the last major wave, but I find it hard to believe that.

This, and also whenever we say anything is even slightly better, the American public takes that as an okay signal to do whatever they want without thinking.

[Crumpets]

Here's an updated map of the 14-day trend by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.). The numbers for Nevada might be artificially good, since it looks like Clark County didn't report anything on the NYT tracker yesterday after adding a bunch of retroactive cases the day before. Regardless, this is a big improvement over the last time I made this map on September 23rd.

[Roll Roons]

Bear in mind that at this time last year, cases were already starting to rise.

[emailking]

True but we're also higher than we were last year.

[roxas11]

I think it’s a bit premature to start declaring victory. People were saying similar things back in June, and look what happened after that. I certainly hope this will be the last major wave, but I find it hard to believe that.

Let me be very clear about this even if this does end up being the final wave I do not on any level see this as some kind of a victory. There is nothing victorious about losing 700,000 people to this virus and if anything we should not be celebrating over something like that

We should be reflecting on what went wrong and how do we take steps to make sure something like this never happens again. Covid may have been inevitable, but our response to it definitely did not have to be as bad as it was.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1446445806366695429

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1446445806366695429

On every policy issue, it seems, the Democrats hold the positions that are held by a majority of Americans. But it is very difficult for them to actually implement those policies.

[Dan the Roman]

Re this being the final wave

I find that fairly doubtful given the behavior of this sort of virus, and the trajectory elsewhere in the world.

I suspect we may see longer gaps between waves, and that in the very high vax areas which also have seen semi-permanent changes in behavior, see the example of Atlanta with this wave, the impact will be negligible.

In terms of raw numbers of deaths, however, I do not think we are even one third or fourth of the way through to where we will be in 2032. I fully expect Covid19 to batter rural communities with poor health infrastructure, an already unhealthy population, and vaccine rates which peaked in the first months of 2021 prior to polarization.

Natural immunity is holding up at a year, but there are no coronaviruses for which it lasts beyond 3 years and the WHO expects everyone to get it three times over the next decade. For those getting boosters, and otherwise in fairly good health, those three times may be one serious flu and two light colds. But for counties with 25%-30% vaccination rates now, hospital systems which will not recover from the last 18 months, and where everything is being bet on natural immunity, those will be waves which will hit for 200-250 per 100,000 each time.

So when we look at NYC which is at 410 or so, I would be shocked if it reached 600 by 2032. But I wouldn't be shocked if most of the rural South was around 1200-1400 per 100k by 2032.

Basically I expect MS and Alabama to have at least 3-5 more waves at least 50% as bad as this one. And I feel that is very optimistic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1446445806366695429

On every policy issue, it seems, the Democrats hold the positions that are held by a majority of Americans. But it is very difficult for them to actually implement those policies.

I always say this, but it bears repeating: Americans do tend to agree with Democrats on policy, but disagree on personality which takes precedent when it comes time to elect politicians to enact those policies. And if it's not that, it's those issues ultimately not proving to matter for whom they want to vote for. It's just another one of many sad realities we have to live with in our country.

[pbrower2a]

If I am to expect anything, it will be following waves, each smaller than the previous one.  The most refractory resisters to inoculation will contract COVID-19 in smaller and smaller super-spreader events that most people will know enough to avoid or to attend only if they have masks. The Sturgis motorcycle rally of next year will likely be one of those. So will rallies for Republican pols.

More and more people will be inoculated, so at some point we will have herd immunity. Maybe around 2024...

People start getting warnings against doing really-stupid stuff, like walking backwards toward an unguarded cliff just to get the perfect selfie, getting hooked on heroin, or driving drunk. News media, even if they try to avoid what looks like yellow journalism, still report behaviors that go suddenly and catastrophically wrong when those result in death.

The people who know the victims get to see the stories or get evidence. One of those is the phone call that a medical professional tells a COVID-19 patient to make "because you are going on life support shortly".
 

[Meclazine for Israel]

Out of the all the people in hospital in Sydney, Australia at present who have contracted COVID-19 and are very ill, 94% were never vaccinated.

Of those who died, 84% were unvaccinated and 16,% had only one dose.

It appears that not taking vaccine is a very risky move.

Sydney comes out of lockdown on Monday only for those who are double vaccinated.

Nearly all employment and travel in 2022 in Australia will require a double vaccination certificate. Once you hand over your Medicare card or proof of vaccination, then you can enter restaurants, go to work and travel etc.

Those who are unvaccinated will most likely be locked down in Sydney through to 2022. Melbourne would be very close to that

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fascinating visualization:

https://twitter.com/JohnHolbein1/status/1446952172818731019

[Meclazine for Israel]

Fascinating visualization

If you find the YouTube version of this, let me know. Great way to look at the pandemic.

[Person Man]

Fascinating visualization:

https://twitter.com/JohnHolbein1/status/1446952172818731019

You can map the mental and moral decline of parts of the country now in real time. Really cool. I’m only being 70% sarcastic.

[emailking]

Merck seeks FDA emergency use authorization for antiviral Covid-19 treatment molnupiravir

Merck said Monday it is seeking US Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization for its experimental antiviral Covid-19 treatment, molnupiravir.

If authorization is granted, the drug, made by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, would be the first oral antiviral treatment to fight Covid-19. It comes in capsule form.

Merck said it is asking for authorization for the capsules to treat infected adults who are at risk of progressing to severe Covid-19 disease or hospitalization. Its submission is based on a study that was stopped at the interim point because the drug was working so well in more than 700 patients randomly assigned to take either molnupiravir or a placebo.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/11/health/molnupiravir-covid-19-antiviral-merck-request/index.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1446445806366695429

On every policy issue, it seems, the Democrats hold the positions that are held by a majority of Americans. But it is very difficult for them to actually implement those policies.

I always say this, but it bears repeating: Americans do tend to agree with Democrats on policy, but disagree on personality which takes precedent when it comes time to elect politicians to enact those policies. And if it's not that, it's those issues ultimately not proving to matter for whom they want to vote for. It's just another one of many sad realities we have to live with in our country.

Messaging is everything, and it's so frustrating how bad the Democrats are at it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Parent sues Wisconsin school district after child contracts COVID from unmasked, symptomatic classmate

According to the lawsuit, the board in May removed a student mask requirement and other Covid-19 mitigation measures. One of Jensen’s son’s classmates allegedly came to school with symptoms in September and didn’t wear a mask. Jensen’s son was seated next to the sick student and was wearing a mask but still became infected. Jensen’s other two sons later tested positive as well.

Politics followers probably won't have much trouble guessing which county this occurred in.

[Roll Roons]

Parent sues Wisconsin school district after child contracts COVID from unmasked, symptomatic classmate

According to the lawsuit, the board in May removed a student mask requirement and other Covid-19 mitigation measures. One of Jensen’s son’s classmates allegedly came to school with symptoms in September and didn’t wear a mask. Jensen’s son was seated next to the sick student and was wearing a mask but still became infected. Jensen’s other two sons later tested positive as well.

Politics followers probably won't have much trouble guessing which county this occurred in.

Is it crucial?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Parent sues Wisconsin school district after child contracts COVID from unmasked, symptomatic classmate

According to the lawsuit, the board in May removed a student mask requirement and other Covid-19 mitigation measures. One of Jensen’s son’s classmates allegedly came to school with symptoms in September and didn’t wear a mask. Jensen’s son was seated next to the sick student and was wearing a mask but still became infected. Jensen’s other two sons later tested positive as well.

Politics followers probably won't have much trouble guessing which county this occurred in.

Is it crucial?

Very.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1446445806366695429

On every policy issue, it seems, the Democrats hold the positions that are held by a majority of Americans. But it is very difficult for them to actually implement those policies.

I always say this, but it bears repeating: Americans do tend to agree with Democrats on policy, but disagree on personality which takes precedent when it comes time to elect politicians to enact those policies. And if it's not that, it's those issues ultimately not proving to matter for whom they want to vote for. It's just another one of many sad realities we have to live with in our country.

Messaging is everything, and it's so frustrating how bad the Democrats are at it.

To the contrary, the fact that policy issues polling has probably averaged 2:1 in favor of Dems for the past decade while there hasn't been an FDR style landslide in any of the actual elections means there is something wrong with the polling.  If the ~67/33 Dem policy issues are really ~57/43 due to nonresponse bias and statistically tied outside of California and New York, that would explain the actual election results.   

[It’s so Joever]

“Voters don’t vote on policy”-Me about 20,000 times on this secular blog.