COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My roommate was in Glenwood Springs on Friday. Were you able to cash in on that $100 deal?

I don't remember seeing anything about a $100 deal.

[Del Tachi]

We survived similar global pandemics in 1957-58 and 1968-69 that no one even talks about today.

First off, unlike COVID-19, those were influenza pandemics where a good portion of the population had some protection from exposure to other strains.  Also, in both cases, vaccines were available within months. If we'd been able to follow the vaccine development timeline of either of those prior pandemics, we'd have been deploying a coronavirus vaccine this past summer. (To be fair, the speed of vaccine development then was due to prior work on influenza vaccines in general, and if the current pandemic was an influenza virus rather than a coronavirus, we'd probably have had a vaccine widely available by this past summer.)

Second, for better or worse, society today has a lower tolerance for risk than it did fifty years ago, in large part because of the success we've had in dealing with viral diseases. When dying from a virus is rare, people understandably are going to be more freaked out by the possibility than when it's not that uncommon.

There is good evidence that exposure to other coronavirus also provides a level of cross-immunity against COVID-19.

Vaccine development and deployment is admittedly something I don't know a lot about (and I'm not really that interested), but I'll just repeat a point I've made before that the characteristics of COVID-19 makes the impact of universal interventions (like vaccination) extremely marginal.  If the disease kills (on the liberal end) 1-3% of everyone who gets it and those outcomes are extremely concentrated in the oldest, most co-morbid cohorts then even the universal distribution of a 100% effective inoculation just isn't going to affect total mortality all that much.  The availability of a vaccine may be important for policymakers and the public hoping to resume "normality" (and, in fact, those with the most standing to financially benefit from a vaccine have been pushing it as the ultimate solution for some reason), but it's value is mostly political. 

I don't understand your point about society being less "risk tolerant" than it was 60 years ago.  Any mitigation strategy begins with an assessment of the relative risks, which for COVID-19 was extremely influenced by now outdated or bad science from China and sensationalist reporting from the onset of the pandemic.   The CDC's current best IFR estimates for COVID-19 are now 0.2 to 0.4 percent, which makes it much more survivable than either the 1958 or 1968-69 flu pandemic.  The CDC estimates roughly 42,000 COVID deaths among Americans aged 0-64 (yeah, >80% of all COVID deaths have been in those 65+), compared to over 520k from all other causes.  The perceived risks from COVID-19 (relative to our understanding of them in February/March) have unequivocally diminished.       

Point being, I don't get how you're arguing COVID-19 is so fundamentally different than 20th century pandemics we survived with (relatively) minimal societal disruption.

[Silent Hunter]

How many Americans died in the 1958 and 1968/69 pandemic?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How many Americans died in the 1958 and 1968/69 pandemic?

Per the CDC website at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html:

1957-58 (H2N2) was 116K in the US, 1.1 million worldwide.

1968 (H3N2) was 100K in the US, 1 million worldwide.

[GP270watch]

These Covid death numbers are with a significant portion of the population not carrying on as usual.

 But I do think Covid has already mutated to be weaker and more contagious which makes sense. We could resume many things with mask wearing and basic precautions, the problem is people are being big babies about it. Wear your mask whenever possible, officials should open all schools and teach children proper hygiene. Other countries avoided the worst of it and basically carried on with mandated mask usage, hand-washing and sanitation campaigns, on top of effective contact tracing to stop outbreaks.

 The United States response has been all over the place and unfocused with obvious failures and also sabotaged by the stupid party that thinks washing your hands and covering your face is government tyranny.

[Burke Bro]

My roommate was in Glenwood Springs on Friday. Were you able to cash in on that $100 deal?

I don't remember seeing anything about a $100 deal.

They have an ongoing offer right now where if you book a 2 night stay during the work week at one of their listed hotels, the city gives you $100 of local currency to spend at local shops/restaurants/businesses. It’s meant to stimulate the tourism industry, which has been suffering a lot there because of COVID.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/colorado-town-pay-visitors-100.amp

[It’s so Joever]

The Nevada reinfection where the man got worse the second time has been confirmed.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/12/covid-reinfection-virus-can-strike-twice-worse-second-time-nevada-man/5965917002/

[emailking]

But I do think Covid has already mutated to be weaker and more contagious which makes sense.

Why does weaker make sense?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But I do think Covid has already mutated to be weaker and more contagious which makes sense.

Why does weaker make sense?

I think what happens is that the virus has to adapt to be less deadly, since it needs living hosts who can spread it.

[It’s so Joever]

But I do think Covid has already mutated to be weaker and more contagious which makes sense.

Why does weaker make sense?

I think what happens is that the virus has to adapt to be less deadly, since it needs living hosts who can spread it.

Looks like a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/DaddyKrakenProd/status/1315825546811629568

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>

10/4: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,636,912 (+36,066 | ΔW Change: ↑8.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
• Deaths: 214,611 (+334 | ΔW Change: ↑21.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

10/5: <M>

• Cases: 7,679,644 (+42,732 | ΔW Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,032 (+421 | ΔW Change: ↑18.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/6: <T>

• Cases: 7,722,746 (+43,102 | ΔW Change: ↓3.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,822 (+790 | ΔW Change: ↓0.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/7: <W>

• Cases: 7,776,224 (+53,478 | ΔW Change: ↑30.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 216,784 (+962 | ΔW Change: ↑0.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,833,599 (+57,375 | ΔW Change: ↑21.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 217,738 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↑3.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

10/9: <F>

• Cases: 7,894,478 (+60,879 | ΔW Change: ↑11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)
• Deaths: 218,648 (+910 | ΔW Change: ↑5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/10: <S>

• Cases: 7,945,505 (+51,027 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 219,282 (+634 | ΔW Change: ↓15.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/11 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/DaddyKrakenProd/status/1315825546811629568

Good.
This is how the vaccine process is supposed to work. Whether it’s just an anomaly or a serious side effect needs to be determined.

[emailking]

But I do think Covid has already mutated to be weaker and more contagious which makes sense.

Why does weaker make sense?

I think what happens is that the virus has to adapt to be less deadly, since it needs living hosts who can spread it.

For ebola I get that, but this thing spreads easily before you even have symptoms from it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

From the long-ago days of March, 2020:

Trump says 200,000 Americans could die from coronavirus, because he’s done “a very good job”

President Donald Trump just dramatically redefined success on the country’s response to the coronavirus.

Barely a month ago, Trump claimed the coronavirus would go away on its own. Then he said it paled in comparison to the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak, which killed about 12,500 Americans. Now he’s saying that the estimates showing Covid-19 could kill 100,000 Americans — roughly equivalent to two Vietnam Wars or 38 September 11 attacks — actually reflect how effective he’s been.

During a news conference on Sunday, Trump said that a final US coronavirus death toll somewhere in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 people would indicate that his administration has “done a very good job.”

(In the the United States at least 214,000 people have died from COVID-19, with no signs the deaths will stop in the near future.)

[parochial boy]

I think what happens is that the virus has to adapt to be less deadly, since it needs living hosts who can spread it.

Smallpox was around for thousands of years and was still pretty deadly even in the 20th century. Even if Coronviruses are much less stable than smallpox, a disease mutating to become significantly less deadly in the space of a few months is pretty far fetched.

snip

Actually, this makes me thing of another thing. If we move beyond just COVID, we know as a pretty much certainty that these sorts of zoonotic events are going to become more and more common as humans and intense levels of industry and agriculture expands into previously uninhabited areas. Which really begs the question as to how we are going to be better at the outset or at dealing with these sorts of things at least. Because, regardless of what your thoughts on the lockdown this time round would be, there's no way we can cope with sticking the whole world on lockdown every 10 years for every new unknown disease that rolls out of China or Borneo or Cattle farms in the Amazon.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316146752685174784

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>

10/4: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,636,912 (+36,066 | ΔW Change: ↑8.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
• Deaths: 214,611 (+334 | ΔW Change: ↑21.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

10/5: <M>

• Cases: 7,679,644 (+42,732 | ΔW Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,032 (+421 | ΔW Change: ↑18.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/6: <T>

• Cases: 7,722,746 (+43,102 | ΔW Change: ↓3.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,822 (+790 | ΔW Change: ↓0.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/7: <W>

• Cases: 7,776,224 (+53,478 | ΔW Change: ↑30.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 216,784 (+962 | ΔW Change: ↑0.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,833,599 (+57,375 | ΔW Change: ↑21.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 217,738 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↑3.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

10/9: <F>

• Cases: 7,894,478 (+60,879 | ΔW Change: ↑11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)
• Deaths: 218,648 (+910 | ΔW Change: ↑5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/10: <S>

• Cases: 7,945,505 (+51,027 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 219,282 (+634 | ΔW Change: ↓15.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

[Dean White]

COVID-19 is challenge. If the United Sates is going to conduct presidential elections than it is necessary to take right steps towards the safety people. Everyone taking part in rallies should wear safety tools like a welder wears his best welding helmet, gloves, boots and other protection equipment at work.

[It’s so Joever]

I think what happens is that the virus has to adapt to be less deadly, since it needs living hosts who can spread it.

Smallpox was around for thousands of years and was still pretty deadly even in the 20th century. Even if Coronviruses are much less stable than smallpox, a disease mutating to become significantly less deadly in the space of a few months is pretty far fetched.

snip

Actually, this makes me thing of another thing. If we move beyond just COVID, we know as a pretty much certainty that these sorts of zoonotic events are going to become more and more common as humans and intense levels of industry and agriculture expands into previously uninhabited areas. Which really begs the question as to how we are going to be better at the outset or at dealing with these sorts of things at least. Because, regardless of what your thoughts on the lockdown this time round would be, there's no way we can cope with sticking the whole world on lockdown every 10 years for every new unknown disease that rolls out of China or Borneo or Cattle farms in the Amazon.

Absolutely agreed.
Even before Covid-19, I was always worried about the likelihood of future pandemics due to our current circumstances. I personally thought it would be some form of antibiotic resistant bacteria first, but clearly I was mistaken.
I sincerely hope this pandemic motivates people into spending more time and resources on monitoring and preventing potential future pandemics in the making. Unfortunately, the stupidity of humanity never ceases to disappoint, just look at Atlas.

[It’s so Joever]

COVID-19 is challenge. If the United Sates is going to conduct presidential elections than it is necessary to take right steps towards the safety people. Everyone taking part in rallies should wear safety tools like a welder wears his best welding helmet, gloves, boots and other protection equipment at work.

Are you kidding?
Most of the people in the US are complaining about wearing a goddamn surgical mask.
A f**king surgical mask!

Those things are so easy to breathe through, it feels completely normal and any “complaints” a healthy person has about them are complete and utter bulls**t.
(And if you are still wearing a cloth mask, I would recommend making the switch if you have the resources to do such. Not because of efficacy, but because surgical ones are easier to breathe through.)

I could wear one of those for years if I had to (not that I will have to, for all the chickens**ts who are scared of muh tyranny over face protection)


Good luck getting all these lunatics in America to act like adults and protect their community. Apparently that goes against liberty or something like that.

[It’s so Joever]

And we now have the first confirmed death after a confirmed reinfection. Once again, the people who espoused herd-immunity are complete and utter idiots.
It’s important to remember that unlike the Nevada case, this patient was immunocompromised and elderly, which could have been a factor in her death.
This also shows that even with a confirmed vaccine, numerous booster shots will likely be needed in the future to prevent spread of the disease.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-twice-death-dutch-woman/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another adherent of the testing-causes-more-cases sect:

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem on Tuesday blamed South Dakota’s recent surge in coronavirus cases on an increase in testing, even as the state saw a new high in the number of people hospitalized by the virus.

There are currently no open general-care hospital beds in the southeastern part of the state, which contains the two largest hospitals, according to the Department of Health. Hospitals are dealing with both an increase in COVID-19 patients and people needing other medical care.
...
The Republican governor did not explain how an increase in hospitalizations would be connected to an increase in testing. The state has also seen one of the nation’s highest positivity rates for testing in the last 14 days, according to Johns Hopkins researchers. The roughly 23% positivity rate is an indication there are more infections than tests are indicating.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-health-sioux-falls-south-dakota-5d28c62f4b7c7cb51e764f3ecb4e1cb5

[It’s so Joever]

Another adherent of the testing-causes-more-cases sect:

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem on Tuesday blamed South Dakota’s recent surge in coronavirus cases on an increase in testing, even as the state saw a new high in the number of people hospitalized by the virus.

There are currently no open general-care hospital beds in the southeastern part of the state, which contains the two largest hospitals, according to the Department of Health. Hospitals are dealing with both an increase in COVID-19 patients and people needing other medical care.
...
The Republican governor did not explain how an increase in hospitalizations would be connected to an increase in testing. The state has also seen one of the nation’s highest positivity rates for testing in the last 14 days, according to Johns Hopkins researchers. The roughly 23% positivity rate is an indication there are more infections than tests are indicating.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-health-sioux-falls-south-dakota-5d28c62f4b7c7cb51e764f3ecb4e1cb5

Maybe a certain Atlas user here could help her out with an excuse.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1315821401794846720