COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If you take the position that the first Amendment applies to state governments, then I don't see how forcibly closing places of worship is constitutional. I think the first and 2nd Amendments are just too broad the way they're stated.

The first Amendment doesn't exempt churches from generally applicable rules, regulations, and laws.

[emailking]

If the law is they all have to close I think it's a violation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republican suburban outreach reaches Texas.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1263957793293336579

[Grassroots]

Republican suburban outreach reaches Texas.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1263957793293336579

Putting ourselves and our loved ones at risk to own the libs. Apparently the whole first world is killing their own citizens to hurt Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13:

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14:

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

5/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,483,736 (+26,908 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 88,479 (+1,578 | Δ Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)

5/16:

• Cases: 1,505,033 (+21,297 | Δ Change: ↓20.85% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 89,511 (+1,032 | Δ Change: ↓34.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18:

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19:

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)

5/20:

• Cases: 1,591,991 (+21,408 | Δ Change: ↑5.52% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 94,994 (+1,461 | Δ Change: ↓5.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)

5/21 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,620,902 (+28,911 | Δ Change: ↑35.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)
• Deaths: 96,354 (+1,360 | Δ Change: ↓6.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)

5/22 (Today):

• Cases: 1,645,094 (+24,192 | Δ Change: ↓16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.49%)
• Deaths: 97,647 (+1,293 | Δ Change: ↓4.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I'm not that optimistic about the death rate. I think one of the big priorities now should be vaccines or the protective antibody treatments that may be rolled out much, much sooner.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ftrain/status/534171110221156352

Note the date.

[Smeulders]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I'm not that optimistic about the death rate. I think one of the big priorities now should be vaccines or the protective antibody treatments that may be rolled out much, much sooner.

The CDC has put out an estimate, without any information as to how they got to that number. The CDC's estimate diverges strongly from other studies, which do tell us how they got their estimates. There is no reason to believe the CDC numbers over the others until they show their methods. (Consensus IFR seems to be in the 0.5 - 1% range)

[Inmate Trump]

Can one of the conspiracy theorists here explain why they think the CDC is lying to us?

[Smeulders]

First off, I do not necessarily think they are lying. It is not impossible that they have data to support their estimate. If so, they should produce it and people can try to figure out why estimates differ so much.

If they have no data to support the estimate, or if a reasonable analysis of their data does not support the estimate, it is not hard to guess what is happening. The CDC saying "it's not so bad" is helpful as the administration is pushing to reopen as quickly as possible.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Can one of the conspiracy theorists here explain why they think the CDC is lying to us?

I don't know that they are. But if you're asking why people might not trust the CDC 100% right now, the fact that it's run by someone who has no hesitation in sucking up to the coward Donald Trump probably has a lot to do with that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bq6lWdJAO4

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

In Colorado, suicides in Mar-Apr 2020 is down from 2019, while calls to suicide hotlines are up.

Source (Denver Post)

Suicides in Colorado dropped 40% during first 2 months of coronavirus pandemic — but calls to crisis line spiked

[...]

Suicides have steadily increased in recent years, rising from 1,175 deaths in 2017 to 1,287 deaths in 2019, according to death certificate data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

But so far, suicides are down this year, most notably in March and April, when there were 139 such deaths, compared to the 233 deaths during the same months in 2019, according to the data.

As such, there is no sign yet that suicides are contributing to the 20% increase in overall deaths Colorado is experiencing either directly or indirectly because of the coronavirus pandemic.

[...]

While suicide rates are down, experts, caution that individuals are still experiencing mental health issues, such as depression and anxiety.

Colorado Crisis Services fielded 39,770 calls and text messages from people seeking help in March and April, up from the 26,928 calls and text messages during the same months last year.

[...]

There's also some prediction in here about this rate increasing in the next months but I don't think there's very much reason to think that will happen until October and into the winter, if at all.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I thought at least 80% of cases were asymptomatic.  Why would they estimate such a larger % of symptomatic cases, while also estimating a much lower IFR than previous studies have concluded.  FWIW, that IFR estimate seems implausibly low based on the serology studies in NY and Spain.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I guess my signature was actually too pessimistic!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I thought at least 80% of cases were asymptomatic.  Why would they estimate such a larger % of symptomatic cases, while also estimating a much lower IFR than previous studies have concluded.  FWIW, that IFR estimate seems implausibly low based on the serology studies in NY and Spain.

I haven't read the whole conservative review piece but the fact they cite the Ionnidis/Stanford antibody study makes me skeptical. That article has been thoroughly discredited on several fronts and should basically be considered garbage.

[Smeulders]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I thought at least 80% of cases were asymptomatic.  Why would they estimate such a larger % of symptomatic cases, while also estimating a much lower IFR than previous studies have concluded.  FWIW, that IFR estimate seems implausibly low based on the serology studies in NY and Spain.

A lot of the reports of very high asymptomatic rates are early in outbreaks, with more people developing symptoms later on, or in populations not representative of the general population (young navy personel for example). That part at least is plausible. Definitely agree that the CDC estimate is not easy to reconcile with the results of large scale serology studies.

[It’s so Joever]

Glad the virus-truthers want to listen to the CDC without question now!
Since we are doing that, how about we have everyone wear a mask, slowly reopen (and revert back to shutdowns if cases spike), and social distance, like the CDC recommends?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Glad the virus-truthers want to listen to the CDC without question now!
Since we are doing that, how about we have everyone wear a mask, slowly reopen (and revert back to shutdowns if cases spike), and social distance, like the CDC recommends?

You know, I don't really have a huge problem with masks.  I'm happy to wear one if I'm going to be in a place like a supermarket (I actually remember kind of regretting not wearing one the last time I went in one).  I just think that most businesses should be open, even those not conducive to masks or social distancing (like restaurants).  As I live alone, I am also going to see friends when I can, as I would go crazy otherwise.

If masks in certain circumstances (like a crowded store) are what it takes to otherwise get back to normal, I'm fine with that.  It kind of feels dystopian when restaurant servers have masks on, but I don't mind that either at the end of the day.

What I do think we need (and even once this is over) is hand sanitizer everywhere.  You should never have a hard time finding it when you enter a store, workplace, church, stadium, or restaurant.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I thought at least 80% of cases were asymptomatic.  Why would they estimate such a larger % of symptomatic cases, while also estimating a much lower IFR than previous studies have concluded.  FWIW, that IFR estimate seems implausibly low based on the serology studies in NY and Spain.

I haven't read the whole conservative review piece but the fact they cite the Ionnidis/Stanford antibody study makes me skeptical. That article has been thoroughly discredited on several fronts and should basically be considered garbage.

If you read the linked CDC report, it says their IFR estimates are just based on “data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020”.  They estimate that 10% of the population (33 million people) have already been infected.  As much as I would like to believe we are that close to herd immunity, it just doesn’t seem possible to me.  The only states or countries that have estimated an infection rate close to that high through serology have a much higher death rate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1264207446840672257

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I thought at least 80% of cases were asymptomatic.  Why would they estimate such a larger % of symptomatic cases, while also estimating a much lower IFR than previous studies have concluded.  FWIW, that IFR estimate seems implausibly low based on the serology studies in NY and Spain.

I haven't read the whole conservative review piece but the fact they cite the Ionnidis/Stanford antibody study makes me skeptical. That article has been thoroughly discredited on several fronts and should basically be considered garbage.

If you read the linked CDC report, it says their IFR estimates are just based on “data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020”.  They estimate that 10% of the population (33 million people) have already been infected.  As much as I would like to believe we are that close to herd immunity, it just doesn’t seem possible to me.  The only states or countries that have estimated an infection rate close to that high through serology have a much higher death rate.

Yeah also worth mentioning that even if the CDC reports a most likely symptomatic CFR of 0.4%, they also give an estimate of uncertainty that says that it could be anywhere between 0.2% and 1%.

Their calculation going from symptomatic to total CFR also assumes that exhibiting symptoms doesn't depend on your age at all. Maybe this is true but I would find it surprising.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/1264247161614712836

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/1264247161614712836

"Is this about the virus or the election?" asks protester for whom it is pretty clearly about the election.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/1264247161614712836