COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is how virus-truthers feel across the country. They are scared to acknowledge the truth so they stay buried under the sand in with fictitious beliefs that everything is normal and always will be. Basically a form of denial to cope with tough situations.
It’s truly an enviable way of thinking, to be able to be so willfully ignorant for your own happiness.

Their chief:

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1261036307972833281

I mean, this is actually true.  If you do more testing you will invariably identify more cases.  Didn't we all agree on this several weeks ago?

Great. So I guess if the police stopped doing rape kits that would solve the rape and sexual assault problem.

The only way you get from the observation that testing capacity has a deterministic impact on new case counts to what you just said is by either 1) being illiterate or 2) operating in extremely bad faith. 

Is Trump articulate or even inspiring confidence with his remarks?  An emphatic no.  But he's just repeating a pretty compelling, standard argument that's been evoked ad naseum by scientists, doctors, and commentators on both the left and right. 

It is a factual statement that if you do more testing, you will find more cases.
But what exactly is the argument?
This statement could be used in support of the argument that finding more cases is a good thing.  But it sounds like Trump wants to use to support an argument in favor of less testing.  Which is absurd.  You want/i] to find more cases, not fewer, and testing is the essential way to do that.

[Del Tachi]

This is how virus-truthers feel across the country. They are scared to acknowledge the truth so they stay buried under the sand in with fictitious beliefs that everything is normal and always will be. Basically a form of denial to cope with tough situations.
It’s truly an enviable way of thinking, to be able to be so willfully ignorant for your own happiness.

Their chief:

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1261036307972833281

I mean, this is actually true.  If you do more testing you will invariably identify more cases.  Didn't we all agree on this several weeks ago?

Great. So I guess if the police stopped doing rape kits that would solve the rape and sexual assault problem.

The only way you get from the observation that testing capacity has a deterministic impact on new case counts to what you just said is by either 1) being illiterate or 2) operating in extremely bad faith. 

Is Trump articulate or even inspiring confidence with his remarks?  An emphatic no.  But he's just repeating a pretty compelling, standard argument that's been evoked ad naseum by scientists, doctors, and commentators on both the left and right. 

It is a factual statement that if you do more testing, you will find more cases.
But what exactly is the argument?
This statement could be used in support of the argument that finding more cases is a good thing.  But it sounds like Trump wants to use to support an argument in favor of less testing.  Which is absurd.  You want/i] to find more cases, not fewer, and testing is the essential way to do that.

The implicit argument is that the media's obsession on the daily new case counts is misplaced and not a good indicator of disease progression when testing capacity is still doubling roughly every 2-3 weeks.  I don't see how anyone can listen to Trump's remarks and walk away thinking he wants to do less testing; it's even pretty obvious he's taking a jab at the media when he says "they don't wanna write that".  "That" being when you do more tests you identify more cases.

[Frodo]

Apart from Nick Cordero, have there been any COVID-19 related cases that resulted in amputations? 

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm very encouraged to start seeing a semblance of normality resume in the Jackson suburbs.  Crowded streets/shops, restaurants seem relatively busy (still at 50% though), and less people choosing to wear face masks.

Meanwhile, King Emperor Chokwe A. Lumumba has decided that restaurants/gyms in the City of Jackson can go ahead and reopen tomorrow, but he's implementing a new citywide curfew as well as a mask mandate to go into effect over the weekend.  If he believes this to be the right course of action, where were these mandates 2-4 weeks ago?  In a press conference announcing the end of the city's SAHO, he said he was only allowing reopening so the city wouldn't become an "island".  So the mayor is opening the city while simultaneously chastising the Republican suburbs for doing the same; a nakedly cowardly move to have his political cake and eat it too.  His motivations appear misplaced.

Moreover, I've been increasingly discouraged by the continuing/escalation of rhetoric (mostly on local social media, but also parroted in the media) that any relaxation of social distancing or a personal decision by individuals to not wear PPE is "going to kill grandma" or whatever.  That was never the point of social distancing.  The point was never to stop new cases, but to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed (which now seems like an extinct possibility).  Under both curves, grandma still probably gets COVID-19 and may die.  The hospital system is as ready as its ever going to be, so for that reason it's time to end the lockdown.

The point of the lockdowns was to prevent the medical care system from being overwhelmed. The point of social distancing is the prevent infections and save lives.

So fine, end the forced lockdowns, but please stay home anyway as much as possible, wear masks, and maintain 6 feet. 😳

Yeah I'm a little confused by this as well.

People still die or accumulate life-altering injuries (like lung scarring) whether the hospital system is overwhelmed or not. It's great that the hospital system didn't get overwhelmed and is pretty unlikely to be swamped in the future, but that's not really an excuse to go back to "normal". Preserving a functioning hospital system was not an end unto itself; it was a goal in the service of minimizing risk of death. Another way to reduce death risk is to reduce infection risk.

I'm much more in favor of masks than I am lockdowns at this point, but advocating for abandoning masks seems like crazy talk to me. We've seen what happens when there's rampant infection; not only does it cause a huge public health risk but it fundamentally undermines the public's confidence in other people in daily interactions, the functioning of basic public services (e.g., busses in Denver have been way below capacity for two months), and the basic safety of public and many private spaces. This isn't speculation... this is something we've seen happen over the last two months. You just don't want a situation with a March-like case spike where you have no idea who does and doesn't have the virus.

edit: worth mentioning as well there are other things you want to minimize in addition to deaths... people getting infected often lowers their productivity (especially if you have a severe case) and, although we obviously can't know the longer-term implications, we have evidence of longer-term health impacts in recovered people. "Killing grandma" while a good caricature isn't the only objective.

[Tintrlvr]

The new positives rate (as a percentage of tests performed) in New York dropped below 10% for the first time since March 8 (when there were only 307 tests and 22 positives) today. Progress continues to be made here.

It dropped again today (tests went up, positive results went down). Given the trajectory, we may be looking at a positives rate as low as 5% in New York by next weekend.

Just to follow up on this, the positive rate in NY dropped to 6.0% (actually 5.99%) today, so we may actually see the 5% positive rate I forecast as possible (but maybe optimistic) by this weekend within the next few days.

Incidentally, this means NY's positive rate is now significantly lower than the nation today (it was in line with the nation yesterday).

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is how virus-truthers feel across the country. They are scared to acknowledge the truth so they stay buried under the sand in with fictitious beliefs that everything is normal and always will be. Basically a form of denial to cope with tough situations.
It’s truly an enviable way of thinking, to be able to be so willfully ignorant for your own happiness.

Their chief:

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1261036307972833281

I mean, this is actually true.  If you do more testing you will invariably identify more cases.  Didn't we all agree on this several weeks ago?

Great. So I guess if the police stopped doing rape kits that would solve the rape and sexual assault problem.

Why stop there? If we don't investigate any crimes in general, it's like they never happened! America can truly become a crime free utopia!

[Mr. Illini]

Gov Pritzker announces that all regions of Illinois are on track to meet requirements to move to Phase 3 of the reopening plan, which will mean permitted gatherings of up to 10 people as well as a reopening of barbershops, salons, retail, manufacturing, and office buildings.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/amerindependent/status/1261009511621558272

[DabbingSanta]

I'm very encouraged to start seeing a semblance of normality resume in the Jackson suburbs.  Crowded streets/shops, restaurants seem relatively busy (still at 50% though), and less people choosing to wear face masks.

...

I genuinely cannot fathom what line of tortured reasoning brings one to the conclusion that this is something to be *encouraged by*

This is how virus-truthers feel across the country. They are scared to acknowledge the truth so they stay buried under the sand in with fictitious beliefs that everything is normal and always will be. Basically a form of denial to cope with tough situations.
It’s truly an enviable way of thinking, to be able to be so willfully ignorant for your own happiness.

Please don't generalize all of us. I have been wearing PPE including masks at grocery stores and work because I have a history of health problems including asthma, and I recommend everyone wear them while there's still significant activity in your area. We have had over 500 cases in my county including 45 deaths, and some of these have been community spread. At least half, however, have been in nursing homes and care facilities. Why imprison the general population to their homes when more direct and focused measures will do more good? As long as we keep all large gatherings (like sporting events, theaters, etc) cancelled for the foreseeable future and encourage social distancing I think we can still go on with our lives.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest U.S. vs. Europe case & death graphs.

Today was the first day in which the 7-day average of deaths was declining faster week-over-week in America than in the big five European countries (American deaths declined 23.7% this week compared to the previous week, while European deaths declined 21.5% over the same period).

[Koharu]

Not wearing masks and going back to" normal" can still "Kill grandma" if the irresponsible behavior causes hospitals to become overwhelmed.

Avoiding overcrowding the hospitals isn't a static goal. We've avoided it thus far, but if people just go back to life like normal, cases will begin multiplying at an exponential rate once again and thus overwhelm hospitals (even though they are now prepared now) and cause grandma to die because she had a stroke and there weren't any available ICU rooms. If we reopen slowly, continue using masks, and are cautious, we can keep the R value low while getting people back to work.

This isn't just a "yay we did it and now we're done" thing. Is we're going to use the stupid war symbolism, this is a war of attrition and we're under siege. If we go back to living like normal, the siege will be effective and starve us. If we stick with rationing, we can outlast this thing until reinforcements arrive. It's not fun, but it's effective and we have above evidence that it's working.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8:

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9:

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14 (Today):

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

36,000,000 > 85,000

Go out. Save lives.

Yeah because unemployment is on the same level as death. Real smart there buddy.

Critical thinking isn’t your forte.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

36,000,000 > 85,000

Go out. Save lives.

Yeah because unemployment is on the same level as death. Real smart there buddy.

Critical thinking isn’t your forte.

It isn't yours either

[emailking]

I don't see how anyone can listen to Trump's remarks and walk away thinking he wants to do less testing; it's even pretty obvious he's taking a jab at the media when he says "they don't wanna write that".  "That" being when you do more tests you identify more cases.

I've seen MSNBC report many times now that if you do more tests you find more cases.

20,000 cases is still 20,000 cases even if you can make an argument (unproven) that there are fewer new infections now than the last time a week ago when 20,000 cases were found.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't see how anyone can listen to Trump's remarks and walk away thinking he wants to do less testing; it's even pretty obvious he's taking a jab at the media when he says "they don't wanna write that".  "That" being when you do more tests you identify more cases.

I've seen MSNBC report many times now that if you do more tests you find more cases.

20,000 cases is still 20,000 cases even if you can make an argument (unproven) that there are fewer new infections now than the last time a week ago when 20,000 cases were found.

If the test positivity rate is dramatically lower, tha would suggest there are fewer new infections.  Nevertheless, given that we might still only be finding 10% or less of actual infections (and thus there may be 200,000-300,000 new people infected everyday), the absolute number of “cases” has become pretty irrelevant.

[Grassroots]

[emailking]

If the test positivity rate is dramatically lower, tha would suggest there are fewer new infections. 

If it's random testing I agree with that, but from what I understand it's mostly not random.

[It’s so Joever]

A sad week for the developing World....
It does raise the question as to where Covid-19 will remain even long after we get a vaccine.

[Frodo]

Shouldn't New Zealand also be bathed in blue? 

[Brittain33]

Shouldn't New Zealand also be bathed in blue? 

Low count.

[Grassroots]

A sad week for the developing World....
It does raise the question as to where Covid-19 will remain even long after we get a vaccine.

Africa, India, Central America. To be expected.

I'm sure new strains will develop over time, like the flu. We could see a COVID-23 etc. The one thing scientists agree on though is that any new strains will be less deadly than the original, so I wouldn't see it as a concern.

[Tintrlvr]

France has "neutralized" the virus? They're still reporting a few hundred new cases a day (with a terrible and very limited testing regime so they are inevitably missing more cases than most countries) and an average of close to a hundred deaths a day. That's not neutralized.

[Grassroots]

France has "neutralized" the virus? They're still reporting a few hundred new cases a day (with a terrible and very limited testing regime so they are inevitably missing more cases than most countries) and an average of close to a hundred deaths a day. That's not neutralized.

It's bottomed out and it hasn't gone back up, I would say that's neutralized.

[Frodo]

Shouldn't New Zealand also be bathed in blue? 

Low count.

Speaking of New Zealand, China tried to talk PM Jacinda Ardern out of taking such strong measures to contain the coronavirus:

CHINA TRIED TO TALK NEW ZEALAND, PRAISED FOR ITS CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE, OUT OF TOUGH LOCKDOWN MEASURES

Now why would they do that?