COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Tintrlvr]

France has "neutralized" the virus? They're still reporting a few hundred new cases a day (with a terrible and very limited testing regime so they are inevitably missing more cases than most countries) and an average of close to a hundred deaths a day. That's not neutralized.

It's bottomed out and it hasn't gone back up, I would say that's neutralized.

Then why isn't Italy or Spain labeled as "neutralized"? In any event, surely countries like Australia, China and South Korea where the virus is nearly eradicated are in a different category from countries like France where it is still spreading, albeit at a much lower rate than in the past.

[John Dule]

Jesus. Shut up, China.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

France has "neutralized" the virus? They're still reporting a few hundred new cases a day (with a terrible and very limited testing regime so they are inevitably missing more cases than most countries) and an average of close to a hundred deaths a day. That's not neutralized.

Yeah. France reported 351 deaths today, which is a similar per capita number to the US.  Their reporting throughout had been really inconsistent, so perhaps they swings are tricking whatever measure is being used in the map.  If you average everything out, they going strongly in the right direction, but still slightly behind Spain.

[Sbane]

I'm very encouraged to start seeing a semblance of normality resume in the Jackson suburbs.  Crowded streets/shops, restaurants seem relatively busy (still at 50% though), and less people choosing to wear face masks.

Meanwhile, King Emperor Chokwe A. Lumumba has decided that restaurants/gyms in the City of Jackson can go ahead and reopen tomorrow, but he's implementing a new citywide curfew as well as a mask mandate to go into effect over the weekend.  If he believes this to be the right course of action, where were these mandates 2-4 weeks ago?  In a press conference announcing the end of the city's SAHO, he said he was only allowing reopening so the city wouldn't become an "island".  So the mayor is opening the city while simultaneously chastising the Republican suburbs for doing the same; a nakedly cowardly move to have his political cake and eat it too.  His motivations appear misplaced.

Moreover, I've been increasingly discouraged by the continuing/escalation of rhetoric (mostly on local social media, but also parroted in the media) that any relaxation of social distancing or a personal decision by individuals to not wear PPE is "going to kill grandma" or whatever.  That was never the point of social distancing.  The point was never to stop new cases, but to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed (which now seems like an extinct possibility).  Under both curves, grandma still probably gets COVID-19 and may die.  The hospital system is as ready as its ever going to be, so for that reason it's time to end the lockdown.

The point of the lockdowns was to prevent the medical care system from being overwhelmed. The point of social distancing is the prevent infections and save lives.

So fine, end the forced lockdowns, but please stay home anyway as much as possible, wear masks, and maintain 6 feet. 😳

Thank you! The lockdowns should end in most places but social distancing must continue. Otherwise we will have another outbreak and end up in the same place. Wearing masks indoors, washing your hands before touching your mouth, eyes and nose and trying to stay 6 feet apart are common sense steps to take.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/amerindependent/status/1261009511621558272

[T'Chenka]

Petition to use one of these song references as the next thread title:

Please Like this post if you want a mod to use one of these.

LADY GAGA - BAD ROMANCE
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Want Your COVID, I Want Your Disease

ADELE - SKYFALL
COVID-19 Megathread 6: This Is The End
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Hold Your Breath And Count To 10
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Let The Sky Fall, Let It Crumble

DUA LIPA - NEW RULES
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Got New Rules, I Count 'Em
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Got New Rules I Follow
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Got New Rules I Tell Myself

BERLIN - TAKE MY BREATH AWAY
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Take My Breath Away

ANNA NALICK - BREATHE (2AM)
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Breathe, Just Breathe

ARIANA GRANDE - BREATHIN'
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Keep On Breathin' And Breathin' And Breathin'
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Gotta Keep On Breathin'
COVID-19 Megathread 6: How Do I Know This Shink's Fabricated?

BRITNEY SPEARS - TOXIC
COVID-19 Megathread 6: It's Dangerous, I'm Fallin'
COVID-19 Megathread 6: You're Toxic, I'm Slippin' Under
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Don't You Know That You're Toxic?
COVID-19 Megathread 6: It's In The Air And It's All Around

NIRVANA - NEGATIVE CREEP
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I'm A Negative Creep

ELTON JOHN - I'M STILL STANDING
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I'm Still Standing (Better Than I Ever Did)
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Lookin' Like A True Survivor
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I'm Still Standing (Yeah, Yeah, Yeah)

THE POLICE - DON'T STAND SO CLOSE TO ME
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Don't Stand So Close To Me

PHIL COLLINS - IN THE AIR TONIGHT
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Can Feel It Coming In The Air Tonight
COVID-19 Megathread 6: It's All Been A Pack Of Lies

FLEETWOOD MAC - LITTLE LIES
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Tell Me Sweet Little Lies
COVID-19 Megathread 6: No More Broken Hearts, We're Better Off Apart

DEPECHE MODE - CLEAN
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Clean, The Cleanest I've Been

GREEN DAY - (American Idiot album, multiple songs)
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Beg To Dream And Differ From The Hollow Lies
COVID-19 Megathread 6: It's Only Me And I Walk Alone
COVID-19 Megathread 6: I Walk Alone, I Walk Alone
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Wake Me Up When September Ends
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Don't Wanna Be An American Idiot
COVID-19 Megathread 6: A Nation Under The New Mania
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Can You Hear The Sound Of Hysteria?
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Welcome To A New Kind Of Tension
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Sing Along To The Age Of Paranoia

SEETHER - BROKEN
COVID-19 Megathread 6: The Worst Is Over Now And We Can Breathe Again

EMINEM - MONSTER
COVID-19 Megathread 6: You're Tryin' To Save Me, Stop Holdin' Your Breath
COVID-19 Megathread 6: "Stop Holdin' Your Breath", And You Think I'M Crazy?

LINKIN PARK - PAPERCUT
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Your Paranoia's Probably Worse
COVID-19 Megathread 6: Paranoia's All I Got Left

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/how-long-are-we-going-to-be-wearing-masks-we-asked-the-experts/ar-BB13nolJ


Some experts expect mask wearing to be heavily encouraged until Nov 2021 (18 months) - the general time frame most experts expect a fully functional vaccine to be fully distributed. I still don't know if I buy it

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14/trump-pence-coronavirus-258299

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany revealed Thursday there is no procedure in place to facilitate House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ascension to the presidency should President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence become incapacitated by the coronavirus.

After one of Trump's personal valets, Pence's press secretary and Stephen Miller's wife all tested positive last week...we probably should be think about a President Pelosi, a President Grassley, or more realistically (as both Pelosi and Grassley are both 80+) a President Pompeo (he's 56, and relatively healthy).

Shouldn't our President be trying to keep possible successors (Biden doesn't count, as he might lose in November) aware of what is going on so that if something happens effective continuity of government is maintained?

[Smeulders]

Not wearing masks and going back to" normal" can still "Kill grandma" if the irresponsible behavior causes hospitals to become overwhelmed.

Avoiding overcrowding the hospitals isn't a static goal. We've avoided it thus far, but if people just go back to life like normal, cases will begin multiplying at an exponential rate once again and thus overwhelm hospitals (even though they are now prepared now) and cause grandma to die because she had a stroke and there weren't any available ICU rooms. If we reopen slowly, continue using masks, and are cautious, we can keep the R value low while getting people back to work.

This isn't just a "yay we did it and now we're done" thing. Is we're going to use the stupid war symbolism, this is a war of attrition and we're under siege. If we go back to living like normal, the siege will be effective and starve us. If we stick with rationing, we can outlast this thing until reinforcements arrive. It's not fun, but it's effective and we have above evidence that it's working.

I saw (but unfortunately can't find to properly credit) another siege analogy some time ago that I think fits a bit better. We've shut the gates just in front of the arriving hordes. Some people are calling for the gates to be opened, because if they don't go out and harvest their fields they're going to lose money. They are arguing that the barbarians haven't killed many people in the last couple of weeks, so they can't be that dangerous. They are ignoring that they haven't killed many because the city walls are keeping everyone safe.

Yes, staying holed up in the city means we starve eventually. We're going to be pretty hungry if we wait for the relief forces/vaccine. That said, we should be taking some time to make weapons and train our troops, scout out where the barbarians are encamped. Once we've done that we can venture out to places we know are relatively safe or that we can defend. Throwing open the gates without those preparations is inviting disaster.

[Smeulders]

Meanwhile, King Emperor Chokwe A. Lumumba has decided that restaurants/gyms in the City of Jackson can go ahead and reopen tomorrow, but he's implementing a new citywide curfew as well as a mask mandate to go into effect over the weekend.  If he believes this to be the right course of action, where were these mandates 2-4 weeks ago?  In a press conference announcing the end of the city's SAHO, he said he was only allowing reopening so the city wouldn't become an "island".  So the mayor is opening the city while simultaneously chastising the Republican suburbs for doing the same; a nakedly cowardly move to have his political cake and eat it too.  His motivations appear misplaced.

In the Elon Musk thread you were criticising California for sticking to their guns on lockdowns and thus enforcing stricter regulations than other states. Businesses moving out was apparently their just reward. Here you are criticising another government official for not sticking to their guns. Being worried about public health, but acknowledging that the economic cost of lockdowns is too great when neighbouring areas use their leniency on public health to outcompete you, is apparently wrong as well.

It's hard to find better examples of the lose-lose situation that a race to the bottom brings.

[Badger]

Not wearing masks and going back to" normal" can still "Kill grandma" if the irresponsible behavior causes hospitals to become overwhelmed.

Avoiding overcrowding the hospitals isn't a static goal. We've avoided it thus far, but if people just go back to life like normal, cases will begin multiplying at an exponential rate once again and thus overwhelm hospitals (even though they are now prepared now) and cause grandma to die because she had a stroke and there weren't any available ICU rooms. If we reopen slowly, continue using masks, and are cautious, we can keep the R value low while getting people back to work.

This isn't just a "yay we did it and now we're done" thing. Is we're going to use the stupid war symbolism, this is a war of attrition and we're under siege. If we go back to living like normal, the siege will be effective and starve us. If we stick with rationing, we can outlast this thing until reinforcements arrive. It's not fun, but it's effective and we have above evidence that it's working.

I saw (but unfortunately can't find to properly credit) another siege analogy some time ago that I think fits a bit better. We've shut the gates just in front of the arriving hordes. Some people are calling for the gates to be opened, because if they don't go out and harvest their fields they're going to lose money. They are arguing that the barbarians haven't killed many people in the last couple of weeks, so they can't be that dangerous. They are ignoring that they haven't killed many because the city walls are keeping everyone safe.

Yes, staying holed up in the city means we starve eventually. We're going to be pretty hungry if we wait for the relief forces/vaccine. That said, we should be taking some time to make weapons and train our troops, scout out where the barbarians are encamped. Once we've done that we can venture out to places we know are relatively safe or that we can defend. Throwing open the gates without those preparations is inviting disaster.

Welcome, and please post far more often.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

“US homelessness could increase 45% because of coronavirus unemployment, study says. That would mean an additional 250,000 or so people would be without permanent shelter.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-homelessness-could-increase-45percent-because-of-coronavirus-unemployment-study-says/ar-BB146dAr

But, you know, wE mUsT sHuTdOwN...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14/trump-pence-coronavirus-258299

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany revealed Thursday there is no procedure in place to facilitate House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ascension to the presidency should President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence become incapacitated by the coronavirus.

After one of Trump's personal valets, Pence's press secretary and Stephen Miller's wife all tested positive last week...we probably should be think about a President Pelosi, a President Grassley, or more realistically (as both Pelosi and Grassley are both 80+) a President Pompeo (he's 56, and relatively healthy).

Shouldn't our President be trying to keep possible successors (Biden doesn't count, as he might lose in November) aware of what is going on so that if something happens effective continuity of government is maintained?

Besides being morbid, this is exceptionally silly.  Even among those age 80+, the IFR of the virus is only around 10%. 

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14/trump-pence-coronavirus-258299

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany revealed Thursday there is no procedure in place to facilitate House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ascension to the presidency should President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence become incapacitated by the coronavirus.

After one of Trump's personal valets, Pence's press secretary and Stephen Miller's wife all tested positive last week...we probably should be think about a President Pelosi, a President Grassley, or more realistically (as both Pelosi and Grassley are both 80+) a President Pompeo (he's 56, and relatively healthy).

Shouldn't our President be trying to keep possible successors (Biden doesn't count, as he might lose in November) aware of what is going on so that if something happens effective continuity of government is maintained?

Besides being morbid, this is exceptionally silly.  Even among those age 80+, the IFR of the virus is only around 10%.  

Right. Assume for everyone involved there’s a 20% chance of getting sick and then a 10% chance of dying if they get sick. That’s a 2% chance of President Pence, an 0.04% chance of President Pelosi and a 0.0008% chance of President Grassley right now. Not even worth getting into Pompeo.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/how-long-are-we-going-to-be-wearing-masks-we-asked-the-experts/ar-BB13nolJ


Some experts expect mask wearing to be heavily encouraged until Nov 2021 (18 months) - the general time frame most experts expect a fully functional vaccine to be fully distributed. I still don't know if I buy it

I'm not wasting the next 18 months of my life on this.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/how-long-are-we-going-to-be-wearing-masks-we-asked-the-experts/ar-BB13nolJ


Some experts expect mask wearing to be heavily encouraged until Nov 2021 (18 months) - the general time frame most experts expect a fully functional vaccine to be fully distributed. I still don't know if I buy it

I'm not wasting the next 18 months of my life on this.

I certainly hope that mask wearing will not be the norm for that long.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/how-long-are-we-going-to-be-wearing-masks-we-asked-the-experts/ar-BB13nolJ


Some experts expect mask wearing to be heavily encouraged until Nov 2021 (18 months) - the general time frame most experts expect a fully functional vaccine to be fully distributed. I still don't know if I buy it

I'm not wasting the next 18 months of my life on this.

You're not willing to wear a mask around other people until a vaccine is available?  Please explain how wearing one would constitute a waste of your life. 

Frankly, I'm puzzled why so many people who want to be out and about (which I certainly understand) are NOT willing to also wear a mask while they're out and among other people.  They should be embracing wearing a masks as a way to get out and activity back to closer to normal!  Wanting everyone to be out in public with no masks and no vaccine is just irresponsible, and risks everyone's health.  The virus is still prevalent in the US and many other countries, and just hoping for the best will not protect you.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I certainly hope that mask wearing will not be the norm for that long.

I don't even think it's as common as it was a few weeks ago.

When I went out on Tuesday in public outdoor spaces, unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You're not willing to wear a mask around other people until a vaccine is available?

For 18 months?

It probably won't take that long to find a vaccine, but some say there's no guarantee it'll ever be found. Ever.

[Sbane]

I certainly hope that mask wearing will not be the norm for that long.

I don't even think it's as common as it was a few weeks ago.

When I went out on Tuesday in public outdoor spaces, unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Although it is debatable how much benefit masks provide outdoors, they are certainly effective indoors in achieving source control. Having to wear a mask indoors is a small price to pay to be able to get back to a more normal life. And once we have a vaccine or have achieved herd immunity, we won't have to wear masks anymore. That being said, wearing masks would help stop the spread of the flu and common cold as well. What exactly does it cost you to wear a mask?

[GeorgiaModerate]

You're not willing to wear a mask around other people until a vaccine is available?

For 18 months?

It probably won't take that long to find a vaccine, but some say there's no guarantee it'll ever be found. Ever.

In the latter case, the population would eventually reach a state of herd immunity.  And I agree that it's likely a vaccine will take less than 18 months.  But you still haven't explained why wearing a mask is a waste of your life.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A graph to put the recent drop in US deaths into perspective:

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1261267252365623297

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In the latter case, the population would eventually reach a state of herd immunity.  And I agree that it's likely a vaccine will take less than 18 months.  But you still haven't explained why wearing a mask is a waste of your life.

Constant wearing of masks impedes social interaction, speech, and breathing.

I frankly am tired of the impression that every object outside my home is contaminated. It just isn't so. People can't go through life being afraid of every building and object. People are going to need social interaction, and can't wait for herd immunity that will probably take a long time.

Also, the WHO still does not recommend masks, and reaffirmed this stance just last month.

As for the vaccine, I have seen articles that said there was an "antibody vaccine" that's coming pretty soon that uses antibodies from recovered patients or created in a lab. But there's no guarantee it will work.

[Calthrina950]

I certainly hope that mask wearing will not be the norm for that long.

I don't even think it's as common as it was a few weeks ago.

When I went out on Tuesday in public outdoor spaces, unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

I certainly think that people should be wearing them, and that they are necessary now. But it's hard for me to see people wearing them that far into the new year, particularly since it is likely that we may have a vaccine before then. But we'll see what happens. Mandatory mask orders have continued to spread in the meantime, with Los Angeles County, California and King County, Washington now requiring them. However, they haven't spread as fast in recent days as I would have expected. It will be interesting to see also, how long it will be mandatory. Once temperatures start to hit the heights of summer-say 90 or 100 degrees-how comfortable will they be? How practical will it be? I'm not sure.