Israel General Discussion: The Return of the Rotation Government

[Hnv1]

I don't think the Kushner plan is intended to be a meaningful plan to settle the Palestine Question. But, I do agree that the Palestinians blew their chances for a Palestinian state a long time ago. My belief is that the Palestinians will now dwindle into insignificance in the minds of the other Middle Eastern countries and leaders and Palestine as a concept will be extinguished in the next decade.

The world isn't an array of platonic ideas. There are millions of very much living, breathing, fuming Palestinians. gunpowder has the disposition to explode.

Anyhow, after Gantz created an internal inquiry commission to the submarine affair, and Bibi made it clear we'll be voting on a budget for 7 days in late December the next election cycle is 99% going to be in March. meaning three consecutive years of March-April elections. This is getting tiresome

I am still of the opinion that Bibi is planning some election-referendum on a presidential system. A new president must be picked between April-June 2021 even if there's an election, but so far the Likud has made no noise about a candidate. Now after seven years of Rivlin and the president actually playing a political role I can't believe Bibi doesn't care who the president is.

[NewYorkExpress]

Apparently Netanyahu met with Mohhamed Bin Salman in Saudi Arabia recently. However, the Saudis are denying this.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Saudi Arabia over the weekend, a senior Cabinet minister told local news media, signaling a potential breakthrough for Israel as it strives for acceptance in the region.

Various Israeli news outlets and Axios, citing Israeli sources, reported Monday that Netanyahu had met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a visit with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — the first known meeting between the crown prince and Netanyahu.

https://twitter.com/FaisalbinFarhan/status/1330858232680734723

Is peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia on the horizon?

[(no subject)]

There is no easy solution to the Palestinian question. But the least difficult solution is the most obvious one – to create a Palestinian state in those parts of Mandate Palestine which have not since been absorbed, de jure or de facto, into Israel. That means about 80% of the West Bank, plus the Gaza Strip, plus whatever other land can be acquired through negotiations with Israel (and possibly also with Egypt.)
What proportion of the Palestinian diaspora could realistically be settled in such a small state would be a matter for the Palestinians to resolve, but the international community would have to accept an obligation to resettle elsewhere those who could not be accommodated there, and to provide them with appropriate financial compensation. The bill for this should fall mainly on the wealthy Gulf Arab states, who have encouraged the Palestinians in their illusions for so long.
The main obstacle to achieving such a solution is not the Jewish communities now living in Judaea and Samaria (the so-called “settlements”). Most of them are living in fairly compact blocks around Jerusalem and a few other places, and it would not be difficult draw a border that allows for the creation of a viable Palestinian state. Any solution which requires the eviction of 600,000 Jews living in the historic heart of the Jewish homeland, in places such as Hebron where Jews have lived for three thousand years, will be a non-starter.
The main obstacle has been the absolute refusal of the Palestinian leadership, aided and abetted at various times by the Arab states, the Soviet Union and Iran (among many others) to accept any agreement which recognises the right of the Jewish people to exercise sovereignty in any part of the land they choose to identify as Palestine. This attitude goes all the way back to the report of the Peel Royal Commission in 1936, which was the first to recommend the partition of Mandate Palestine into sovereign Arab and Jewish states.
The Palestinians have had several opportunities to achieve statehood, most recently the Clinton-Barak plan offered to Arafat at Camp David in 2000, followed by Olmert’s even more extensive offer to Abbas in 2008. They have rejected them all because acceptance would have involved the recognition of the permanent existence of Israel as a sovereign Jewish state.
The policy of a centre-left party such as British Labour or Australian Labor should therefore be one of support for Palestinian statehood, to be achieved through direct negotiations with Israel (rather than imposed by international fiat), and involving explicit Palestinian acceptance of the legitimate and permanent existence of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people. Any suggestion that such a Palestinian state would be merely an interim step towards the “liberation of Palestine, from the River to the Sea” would have to be renounced. The Palestinians would also have to renounce the “right of return” for the Palestinian diaspora, and accept demilitarisation and whatever other security safeguards Israel chose to insist upon.
These are harsh terms, but harsh terms is what you get when you choose to go to war rather than accept compromise, and then lose the war, which is what the Palestinians have been doing for over a century. The paradox of the Palestinian situation, which they have created for themselves, is that they will have to accept defeat before they can achieve any kind of victory.

[CumbrianLefty]

Palestinians bear a lot of blame for their present predicament, sure. As do those nearby regimes who have (whether through foolishness or cynicism) egged them on over the years.

But this is still a slightly one sided account isn't it? There are many in Israel who have at best had little interest in a peace settlement, and at worst have actively opposed it.

[Hnv1]

This is a thread for current Israeli politics, not global musings over the conflict. There are numerous threads for that. thank you

[Zinneke]

i just randomly saw a video on twitter about Hallel Rabin. Do conscientious objectors really get jailed like that? When Orthodox ones don't? you really start to see Liebermann's point if that's the case.

[Hnv1]

i just randomly saw a video on twitter about Hallel Rabin. Do conscientious objectors really get jailed like that? When Orthodox ones don't? you really start to see Liebermann's point if that's the case.

Only if they wish to make it their point that they object. Most just get out of service in the regular channels.
There’s actually quite a lot of jailed Orthodox Jews as some can’t really cope with the yeshiva life and then lose their privilege not to draft.

Lieberman’s point is what? Anyone with a bit of common sense can see that they will never be drafted en masse, nor would it be to anyone’s benefit. The right thing to do is simply abolish the mandatory conscription

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1333836376819838978?s=20

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1333836376819838978?s=20

It's just the preliminary reading. But it is a strong signal. The question is if the Knesset does dissolve in the end will it force the resignation of the B&W ministers from the interim government.

I don't think Bibi wants to go to elections just yet, so he might give Gantz the first hearing on the budget and wait a little longer before going to elections.

B&W are either way dead as disco. Might as well finish with some dignity

[Mike88]

So, Bibi lost the first vote. Negotiations to avoid an election are still possible until the final vote next week, I believe.

Yamina has been surging in polls lately but they are rightwing, is it possible for them to forge a coalition with Yesh Atid and Meretz? Is it possible some kind of broad pre-election coalition against Bibi?

[Hnv1]

Gideon Saar is resigning the whip and breaking away to form a new right party. Will probably take 2-5 MKs with him

[Hnv1]

Morroco and Israel to sign a "peace treaty" (there are diplomatic relations and flights between the countries already). Or as the three text messages I got since the announcement read "now they can all go back home"

[Kingpoleon]

Gideon Saar is resigning the whip and breaking away to form a new right party. Will probably take 2-5 MKs with him

Who will go with him? Will they join Yakima maybe?

[PSOL]

So what cabinet position is Sa’ar reaching for?

[njwes]

Morroco and Israel to sign a "peace treaty" (there are diplomatic relations and flights between the countries already). Or as the three text messages I got since the announcement read "now they can all go back home"

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but were these texts from Ashkenazi-background Israelis being bigoted toward Sephardic Moroccan-Israelis?

[Hnv1]

So what cabinet position is Sa’ar reaching for?

It seems like he’s going all in thinking he can squeeze the premiership here. If Bibi does win I assume he’ll want justice or something like that

[Hnv1]

Morroco and Israel to sign a "peace treaty" (there are diplomatic relations and flights between the countries already). Or as the three text messages I got since the announcement read "now they can all go back home"

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but were these texts from Ashkenazi-background Israelis being bigoted toward Sephardic Moroccan-Israelis?

Yes, and bigoted might be a strong word here.

[Hnv1]

As Bibi is keeping Gantz and Ashkenazi out of the loop (they had to learn about Morocco from the White House), Foreign Secretary counters with establishing diplomatic relations with Bhutan.

The worst government ever. Even Barak’s short lived failure wasn’t this bad.

[Mike88]

According to recent polling, it seems that Gideon's new party is stealing votes from Yamina and YA. Is he now the "real" alternative to Bibi?

[Hnv1]

According to recent polling, it seems that Gideon's new party is stealing votes from Yamina and YA. Is he now the "real" alternative to Bibi?

Peres once said on polls that they're like perfume, they smell nice but don't get drunk on them.

only time will tell. I can definitely say Lt. Gen. Eisenkot (he's not Ashkenaz) will not join Saar. from sources close to him, the guy is to the left B&W so quite far for the pure right-wing Saar party.

Saar did pledge not to sit in any government led by Netanyahu. I believe him on that

[jaymichaud]

Yifat Shasha Biton is joining Sa’ar

[Hnv1]

Yifat Shasha Biton is joining Sa’ar

Not just joining, but "joint leadership" and a promise that she will be deputy PM if he's the PM. Also, the list will be 50-50 men-women.

That's a lot of currency Sa'ar paid for a popular but not that popular MK with little experience (minister for a year, and a house committee chair) unlike Livni squeezing Herzog. I think Sa'ar could have gotten her for a cheaper "price" unless he really values her skills. idk. She did put some resistance to government measures on Covid, but I really don't get this move.

Now we know Hendel and Hauser are in. Rumors former MK Polkman from Kulano will join. Michal Shir and libertarian Sharen Haskel from Likud as well. But Sa'ar still needs to bulk the list up with more ministerial material. Dichter wants to join but rumors are that Sa'ar doesn't really want him, I doubt Eisenkot will join so I am not sure who else is on sight. Maybe former Brig. Gen. Gal Hirsch as the ex-general, who knows.

Sa'ar is very popular with Likud mayors, some might join, former MK and mayor of Ramat Gan - Shama-Cohen is the obvious candidate. The current Eilat mayor already announced his support.

I do think we need to look at a merger possibility, I have a feeling Lieberman might be willing to run with Sa'ar to create a bigger tent right-wing party to counterbalance Likud. it might work. Boogie Yaalon and Telem as well once Boogie realizes no one likes him or sees him as a possible PM.

Meanwhile, Bibi declared the new head of the Mossad, and as the last one is already deep in Likud politics, we might see him make his entrance after the next elections. Bibi allegedly once said that he sees both Yossi Cohen and Ron Dremer (coming back from DC soon) as potential future successors.

Gantz fired Hendel as minister and Hauser as the chairman of his house committee. I'm starting to think B&W isn't even going to run as a party next time.

_____________________________________________________________

On the left: Shelah says he definitely won't join Meretz (sic: especially not as a second-string). and that Lapid stopped talking to him. I suppose he and Holdai will start something and force Meretz to join on unfavorable terms.

Lapid will lose ground soon in polls with both Bennett and Sa'ar more likely PMs than him.

JL might split.

[Zinneke]

Stupid question but did Yamina have a specific ethnic/religious group voting bloc before it became suddenly popular? Like primarily Ashkenazi/Sephardi or Reform Orthodox . I remember someone saying they attracted black kippa wearers but maybe that was about Shas.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Stupid question but did Yamina have a specific ethnic/religious group voting bloc before it became suddenly popular? Like primarily Ashkenazi/Sephardi or Reform Orthodox . I remember someone saying they attracted black kippa wearers but maybe that was about Shas.

"National Religious", i.e. either Modern Orthodox or Hardal.

[Hnv1]

Stupid question but did Yamina have a specific ethnic/religious group voting bloc before it became suddenly popular? Like primarily Ashkenazi/Sephardi or Reform Orthodox . I remember someone saying they attracted black kippa wearers but maybe that was about Shas.

"National Religious", i.e. either Modern Orthodox or Hardal.

Yes, although less cohesive than in the past. the "religious lite" and the anglo-Saxon modern orthodox immigrants vote more to the left (as are the remnants of the religious Kibbutz movement). The hardcore Hardals ran their own party against LGTBQs last time around quit toward the end and the core of those people voted for UTJ (Rabbi Tau's flock).

The national-religious movement is now too big for one sectorial party.