Israel General Discussion: The Return of the Rotation Government

[Silent Hunter]

Also, the Palestinians should think very carefully about any sort of intifada, because that's just going to end up in a lot of dead Palestinians for little actual gain. Israel has consistently shown it does not care one jot for world opinion.

[jaymichaud]

Some EU states are discussing sanctions on Israel if this Jordan Valley move goes ahead.

Well done Likud, you've dug yourselves in a deep one.

Eh, not gonna happen. EU members can't enforce trade sanctions unless it's backed by the rest of EU, & there will be a cold day in hell before Germany does anything that's critical of Israel.

It's not Germany that would block them, it's the Czech Republic, Austria, Romania, Hungary, maybe Poland depending how they're feeling on the day. They're the ones who blocked the condemnation of Trump's embassy move iirc.

Also, the Palestinians should think very carefully about any sort of intifada, because that's just going to end up in a lot of dead Palestinians for little actual gain. Israel has consistently shown it does not care one jot for world opinion.

They don't care about feckless orgs like the UN sure, but that's different to carrying out a reckless move that would render them a pariah state and undo 40 years of work on international relations.

[Hnv1]

No annexation is going to happen and anything will happen it will end with a slap on the wrist nothing more.

[CumbrianLefty]

No annexation is going to happen and anything will happen it will end with a slap on the wrist nothing more

These two things seem slightly......contradictory.

[Silent Hunter]

Annexation seems off today as they're waiting for US permission. Now that will confuse those who think Israel controls the US...

[Hnv1]

No annexation is going to happen and anything will happen it will end with a slap on the wrist nothing more

These two things seem slightly......contradictory.

Why? I don’t think an annexation will happen and if it does international reaction will be weaker than you assume

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-stands-ground-on-2-year-budget-says-new-elections-would-be-irresponsible/

Lol i'll be very shocked if he keeps his own seat by next election.

[Hnv1]

Israel Katz is proving to be quite a prudent chancellor. Bibi and Edelstein on the other hand look like a trainwreck with the corona. Bennett is eating him alive from the opposition

[Silent Hunter]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-stands-ground-on-2-year-budget-says-new-elections-would-be-irresponsible/

Lol i'll be very shocked if he keeps his own seat by next election.

As head of the party, isn't he first on the ballot?

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-stands-ground-on-2-year-budget-says-new-elections-would-be-irresponsible/

Lol i'll be very shocked if he keeps his own seat by next election.

As head of the party, isn't he first on the ballot?

Yeah, but i'm predicting 4 or 0 seats for B&W.

[Hnv1]

Minor rebellions starting inside the Likud. MKs are starting to dissent. Katz is officially running with his own agenda. That doesn't mean Bibi is toast, but it does mean the MKs are smelling his weakness

[CumbrianLefty]

Minor rebellions starting inside the Likud. MKs are starting to dissent. Katz is officially running with his own agenda. That doesn't mean Bibi is toast, but it does mean the MKs are smelling his weakness

Long overdue, if anything.

[Hnv1]

Minor rebellions starting inside the Likud. MKs are starting to dissent. Katz is officially running with his own agenda. That doesn't mean Bibi is toast, but it does mean the MKs are smelling his weakness

Long overdue, if anything.

The king of tactic found his rival in a matter that requires strategy. Corona is going to end him, and if he doesn't manage to move Gantz on the budget Likud will eat him alive afterwards

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/yairlapid/status/1285177777667420161?s=21

Lapid calls for Bibi to resign, says he wants to form a ‘real’ unity government. Obviously 0% chance of this happening but it’s looking like things are about to get uglier.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/besieged-benjamin-netanyahu-blames-israels-protests-on-epstein-money

A perfect storm of grievances has enveloped Israel just as a second coronavirus lockdown appears inevitable and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems close to losing control of his government.

Protests were held in more than 200 cities and highway junctions all across Israel on Saturday night, and on Sunday, Netanyahu said money from the late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein was funding the mounting demonstrations.

<snip>

On Sunday morning, Netanyahu’s only comment about the rallies, which drew thousands in Jerusalem and in Tel Aviv, was to repeat a conspiracy theory that the Wexner Foundation, an American philanthropy, is funneling Epstein money to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, which he is using to “organize the protests.”

[America Needs R'hllor]

Great news! Nitzan Horovitz's (Meretz) legislation to ban conversion "therapy" passed first reading. It bans psychologists from performing this abuse, which means religious leaders (the majority of those that do it, especially in Arab and Haredi communities) aren't included, but it's still a great first step. It passed with the support of Kahol Lavan, and also MK Amir Ohana (Likud).

I really appreciate what Horovitz has done here, he worked really hard to pass this- the vote was going to be held last week but he didn't have the votes so he postponed it to convince more KL and Joint List people and it worked. He could've presented it last week to score cheap political points but he didn't, he really tried to get it passed.

It also created an interesting political situation.

The Haredim are angry at Gantz and United Torah Judaism called at him "you won't be PM". UTJ said no cooperation with KL, Shas left the hall and refuse to participate in any votes until further notice. Gafni (UTJ) attacked Netanyahu, said the Likud leadership is worth nothing because they didn't prevent it. Beautiful sight.

Funny how their word (they explicitly promised Gantz to ensure Netanyahu keeps with the rotation promise) is worth sh**t when their theocracy is at stake. I think my main takeaway from this is:

The Haredim hate gay people more than they love the 9th commandment.

I'm trying to rummage and find the exact votes, if anyone has a link I'd appreciate it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Aye (42 votes):
13 MKs from Kahol Lavan
12 MKs from Yesh Atid-Telem
5 MKs from Yisrael Beiteinu
3 MKs from Hadash (Soleiman, Odeh and Cassif)
3 MKs from Meretz
3 MKs from Labour
2 MKs from Drek Eretz
1 MK from Likud (Ohana)

Nay (36 votes):
14 MKs from Likud (including so-called secular Nir Barkat, Zeev Elkin, so-called moderate Yoav Kish and Tzachi Hanegbi, former Kulanu's Tali Ploskov, and the youngest MK May Golan- 2\3rds of the caucus were absent, including PM Netanyahu)
8 MKs from Shas
7 MKs from UTJ
4 MKs from Ra'am (all 4 of them)
3 MKs from Yamina (all the National Union and Jewish Home MKs)

Absent (42 MKs):
22 MKs from Likud (including PM Netanyahu, future leadership contenders Yisrael Katz, Regev, Edlestein, Sa'ar, and liberal darling Sharen Haskel who chaired the vote, so I'm not sure on the procedure but she might be justified if the chair doesn't vote). The only realistic leadership contenders who voted no are Barkat and Hanegbi
8 MKs from the Joint List (all 3 from Balad, all 3 from Ta'al, 2 from Hadash- Jabareen and Askala)
5 MKs from Yesh Atid (Karin Elharar, Yoel Razvozov, Elazar Stern, Gadeer Mreeh, Andrey Kozhinov)
3 MKs from Yamina (Shaked, Bennet and Kahana from New Right)
2 MKs from Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman and Amar)
1 MK from Shas (Moshe Arbel)
1 MK from KL (the Haredi Yanklevich)

My analysis:

Some interesting tidbits here. The 5 Yesh Atid people have some explaining to do.

I wonder if Liberman is absent to not be too visible in this vote inside the Russian community- but still, most of the Russian-speaking party voting to ban conversion therapy is HUGE. The Russian-speaking community is extremely homophobic.

Two of the Druze MKs from the opposition parties were absent- Mreeh and Amar. I wonder if it's related or not. In any case I hope we can get them to support in the next hearings.

The New Right trio seems to still be hoping to get the fabled right-wing secular voters on their side. Good thing they're in the same party as Bezalel Smotrich, who responded to the law that "conversion therapy can work, you're preventing people from living a normal life". I bet I'm living a much more normal life than this guy, even being a Talk Elections Poster.

Interesting dynamic in the Joint List. From Hadash, Odeh voting aye is an encouraging sign (Soleiman has always been pro-gay). I wonder if the other two could come around. In Ta'al, a relatively secular party, MK Sundos Saleh was absent despite being one of only two MKs voicing support for the Arab LGBT community after a recent incident. I wonder if Tibi actually made her do this, and if she (and maybe the rest of the party) could be brought to vote aye next time. The violent homophobes from Ra'am have no hope, and I'm not sure what to make of Balad.

The supporting side is still not exactly maxed out. With 42 supporters, if we can keep them all, we could still get the 5 YA and 2 YB people (Yanklevich won't support it because apparently being Haredi means abusing gay minors). That gets us to 49. We just need to prevent 12 from Likud from flipping and voting nay (presuming Arbel from Shas could come next time)- if we can keep their feet to the fire and the pressure campaign alive, it could work. Maybe we have some more space to maneuver if we can get Haskel and some Ta'al and Hadash people to vote aye- in the best case scenario, I think we could get to 55 votes. In the dream scenario where we get Balad's support, we could go up to 58 and in this case I presume a few from Likud would flip and seal the deal, but that won't happen.

All in all, great news- but with the Haredim some livid we'll struggle passing this.

[brucejoel99]

[snip]

Another win for compassion, human rights, & rationality. Hopefully this becomes law ASAP.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Correction: this was considered a preliminary reading. Still needs to pass a first, second and third readings.

[Hnv1]

Great news! Nitzan Horovitz's (Meretz) legislation to ban conversion "therapy" passed first reading. It bans psychologists from performing this abuse, which means religious leaders (the majority of those that do it, especially in Arab and Haredi communities) aren't included, but it's still a great first step. It passed with the support of Kahol Lavan, and also MK Amir Ohana (Likud).

I really appreciate what Horovitz has done here, he worked really hard to pass this- the vote was going to be held last week but he didn't have the votes so he postponed it to convince more KL and Joint List people and it worked. He could've presented it last week to score cheap political points but he didn't, he really tried to get it passed.

It also created an interesting political situation.

The Haredim are angry at Gantz and United Torah Judaism called at him "you won't be PM". UTJ said no cooperation with KL, Shas left the hall and refuse to participate in any votes until further notice. Gafni (UTJ) attacked Netanyahu, said the Likud leadership is worth nothing because they didn't prevent it. Beautiful sight.

Funny how their word (they explicitly promised Gantz to ensure Netanyahu keeps with the rotation promise) is worth sh**t when their theocracy is at stake. I think my main takeaway from this is:

The Haredim hate gay people more than they love the 9th commandment.

I'm trying to rummage and find the exact votes, if anyone has a link I'd appreciate it.

Maybe it's a calculated act. Gantz understands the rotation agreement will never be honored so he might as well squeeze the lemon from sitting in the government and pass whatever he can, or he anticipates elections just around the corner with the budget crisis and needs something to wave.

Anyhow I just noticed the peculiarity that if the government does fall Bibi can't sack the B&W ministers, if we're dead locked for another year we're going to have a unity rotation government which is outright bizarre

[Hnv1]

It just occurred to me that if the budget doesn’t pass the government could spend only 1/12 of 2018 budget per month. During a massive financial crisis. Along with a dysfunctional interim government and no cabinet...anarchy ahead

[CumbrianLefty]

So its another election in the autumn is it?

[Continential]

What is with Yamina having a surge?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

[America Needs R'hllor]

What is with Yamina having a surge?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

Wouldn't call it a surge. They always poll at 12 seats before elections and then collapse to 6-7.

[Hnv1]

What is with Yamina having a surge?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

Right wing voters pissed at Bibi handling the corona crisis but not moving sides