Israel General Discussion: The Return of the Rotation Government

[CumbrianLefty]

So...

- Labor party central committee okays their entry into the coalition
- Meretz MKs are calling them sellouts, telling left-wing activists to join them instead
- Mairav Michaeli accuses Peretz of stealing votes, saying she's gonna see what the Supreme Court decides before making her next step

The fact that about 1/3rd of the party convention voted against joining government shows that there are some people who will respond to that call from the left. I can definitely see them failing to cross the threshold next time, at this rate. I think it will be a double squeeze, too, as more moderate Labor voters could migrate to Yesh Atid thanks to continued opposition to Netanyahu, but Meretz is the much greater threat.

One poll had them at 1.1%. Below Gesher, Drek Israel (Hendel and Hauser) and Otzma. Labour is dead.

To put that in context, Brexit Party still polls higher than that in at least some UK surveys.

What a bathetic end.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, even many Likudists must be aware that some of the US Christian Right only "support" Israel because they actually believe in the Rapture? Doesn't it bother them just a weeny bit??

[CumbrianLefty]

3, all this really gives me the vibe Shas are a nasty party, even by the standards of Isreali politics.

They're just basically a cult. I worked in a polling place in the April election, and one woman who came from another city came looking for a polling place where you could vote as an absentee. She was distressed because "it's a sacred obligation to vote Shas". They use their dead Rabbie, Ovadia Yossef, who was really popular, in all their ads, telling voters that he's "looking from above" and that they have to vote Shas for him. They also sold charms against covid-19 last time and other "blessings" every election. Not to mention the fact that their leader served a jail sentence for corruption and is now due to be indicted again.

I'm laughing at the the irony that they attack Russians for mafia stuff while they are basically THE mafia in Isreali politics, due to their exceptional corruption. Is that bad?

Well, they have no organzied or violent crime connections that I know of. Generally, mafia stuff isn't really an issue in Israeli politics (save pershaps for instances like the witnesses in Lieberman's trial, um, disappearing). But I think it's an accurate assessment that both Shas and YB represent the bad sides of their sects and not the good (sadly, I think this can be said for a lot of sectarial parties- the Haredim, the religious zionists, even the Arabs to an extent).

There's some pretty serious allegations in Misha Glenny's book McMafia (which led to be interested in how Russian Jews are perceived) that Likud was infiltrated by organised crime.

After Dubai, Israel is the next money laundering capital of the Middle East...

Seems like a sensationalist claim to me (as well every organized crime allegation ever). Considering Income Tax Authority in Israel is pretty tough and strong.

Organized crime in Israel is very low scale and very low-fi. Likudniks definitely have some ties to criminals, but they're petty criminals.

Part for holding houses in Israel, Russian mobsters don't seem to be money laundering here in a large scale

Don't Russians tend to prefer Cyprus as a money store, as opposed to Isreal?

You are right, Cyprus is also mentioned in the book as a money laundering scene.
A country that should never have been let into the EU.

Cyprus was certainly used by Milosovic's Serbia as a major sanctions busting route in the 1990s.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like Israel’s next ambassador to the UK will be a piece of work:

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/israel-must-reconsider-its-choice-of-uk-ambassador/

Lol at the thought that Bibi cares for anything other than pure politics when appointing Ambassadors.

Or, indeed, when doing literally anything at all.

[CumbrianLefty]

I must admit I did not expect Israel to legalize cannabis. Anyways I guess that is a small silver lining for this very bad government.

Genuinely surprising that Likud have given the OK to this, for sure.

[CumbrianLefty]

No annexation is going to happen and anything will happen it will end with a slap on the wrist nothing more

These two things seem slightly......contradictory.

[CumbrianLefty]

Minor rebellions starting inside the Likud. MKs are starting to dissent. Katz is officially running with his own agenda. That doesn't mean Bibi is toast, but it does mean the MKs are smelling his weakness

Long overdue, if anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

So its another election in the autumn is it?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, he's survived everything else.......

[CumbrianLefty]

Except for, you know, the people of Bahrain.

And who cares about them?

[CumbrianLefty]

Good old Covid virus, obviously doesn't affect the Haredi like it does other people

[CumbrianLefty]

Went to a demonstration here yesterday. A leftist neighbourhood, and then I went to my sister’s area to the demonstration (radical left bastion of Haifa). Police were mainly overwhelmed with low numbers so stood by. The scenes from Tel Aviv are disturbing. The fabric of Israeli society is tearing, more than the 90’s or the point in the 80’s where civil war looked around the corner.

If this is the last hoorah than be it. I’ll join the youth at any violent protest if needed be. “It is our moral obligation to break unjust laws”.

Wait, when was this? 1982?

81 was a dirty campaign, the dirtiest until 2015. Until 1985 things were dodgy, Lebanon war and polarisation were massive. Both big parties had 75% of the house. After the rotation government settled in things cooled off for a bit.

I don't suppose the rampant inflation around that time would have helped either.

[CumbrianLefty]

One reason why international reporting of Israeli politics is so bad these days is the fact that most of the people filing the copy on it cut their teeth back when it was dominated by those two big hyper-ideological blocks*, and have failed to adjust to everything that has changed since the end of that period.

_{*Average age of international Middle East reporters and correspondents is now amongst the oldest in journalism.}

Labor Zionism vs Revisionist Zionism? Those are pretty much dead ideologies at this point.

Yet Likud still exists? How has it evolved since then?

For the worse?

[CumbrianLefty]

Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

The Palestinian issue is no longer an electoral issue in Israel, that’s why Bennett can pick up votes to the left of Likud. We are now living through the second political realignment in Israel leading to the third party system.

Which will consist of what, basically?

[CumbrianLefty]

Perhaps an even more cogent argument is that it has made *Israel* worse.

[CumbrianLefty]

Saeb Erekat just died of COVID-19 in an Israeli hospital. It never was clear to me if it was a realistic possibility he might have been the one to succeed Abbas.

Well, fair to say it isn't now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Palestinians bear a lot of blame for their present predicament, sure. As do those nearby regimes who have (whether through foolishness or cynicism) egged them on over the years.

But this is still a slightly one sided account isn't it? There are many in Israel who have at best had little interest in a peace settlement, and at worst have actively opposed it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Was that ruling expected?