2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1499769316618772486

What a grifting asshole. Can't wait to see it get overridden.

[Oryxslayer]

DeSantis is unnecessarily strengthening the Democrats’ hand here, there is obviously now a real incentive to strike a deal with the Democrats and override the veto.

This tweet was read on the floor during the debate, apparently shocking some of the house according to MCI who is watching from somewhere in the building. While this was obvious to us, it may adjust the internal calculus of the chamber: either prepare for the courts or get the veto-override votes.

[Gass3268]

It feels like this is going to the courts.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1499779776755605504?s=20&t=fHp3sHWk3_WA...

This hasn't been internalized by everyone in this process until now methinks.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1499787894659059714?s=20&t=fHp3sHWk3_WA...

The House has officially been played and many discovered it today. DeSantis said more compact, they compacted, and then gave them the middle finger cause he wants attention.

That's 7 GOP votes against: Reps. Ingoglia (former Republican Party of Florida chairman), Beltran, Byrd, Drake, Fischer, Gregory & Sabatini. Sabatini obviously cause he didn't get his central FL seat.

[David Hume]

DeSantis is unnecessarily strengthening the Democrats’ hand here, there is obviously now a real incentive to strike a deal with the Democrats and override the veto.

This tweet was read on the floor during the debate, apparently shocking some of the house according to MCI who is watching from somewhere in the building. While this was obvious to us, it may adjust the internal calculus of the chamber: either prepare for the courts or get the veto-override votes.

This seems weird. DeSantis made it clear he would veto it. Can't believe those legislators did not pay attention.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate immediately added the House map to the schedule and is discussing it now.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1499825349923729408?cxt=HHwWgMCj9bLNudApAAA...

Jacksonville senator lol. Reminder Lawson has never won a majority of the primary vote in Duval.

[BoiseBoy]

Senate passes map, now onto DeSantis who will veto:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1499827063724855306?s=20&t=qg_haY30...

[S019]

If they’re smart, Democrats would ask for using the old Senate draft as a starting point for negotiations. Though these maps aren’t particularly awful.

[Torie]

Does anyone understand why DeSantis is doing what he is doing? None of it makes sense to me.

[politicallefty]

Does anyone understand why DeSantis is doing what he is doing? None of it makes sense to me.

According to the above posts, it's DeSantis thumping his chest to be as Trumpy as possible.

If they fixed the Orlando area to be more like the Senate map, I'd say Democrats should take it. I'm not sure what differences there are between the two in terms of Miami-Dade, but the Cuban vote is tough to account for. As I said before, I like the look of the districts in the Tampa area in the Senate map, but I do think the House map makes more sense there. I have to imagine the Orlando configuration in the House map is the poison pill for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

So what is the ultimate likely outcome here? The maps go to the FL Supreme Court?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

[UncleSam]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

Interesting map, didn’t think this was possible. Though I feel like it is also a massive dummymander, as Dems could easily win 15-17 seats in even a mildly D-leaning year. It’s almost a competitive districts gerrymander tbh, just with an R tilt in all of those districts.

[TML]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

So do you think this map is close to what DeSantis may be pushing for?

[lfromnj]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

link for the map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

link for the map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9bb39061-3611-4da8-ad34-8c91a14e91c2

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

Interesting map, didn’t think this was possible. Though I feel like it is also a massive dummymander, as Dems could easily win 15-17 seats in even a mildly D-leaning year. It’s almost a competitive districts gerrymander tbh, just with an R tilt in all of those districts.

I would agree this isn't the most solid gerrymander but 15-17 seems extremely optimistic and would likely take a Tsunami and then some.

Say Dems win all 7 Biden seats as well as the 3 Cuban seats. That's only 10. The Trump + 8 Jacksonville seat could flip because of unfavorable trends in the area, but that is certainly not a guarantee. The 2 non-Cuban Republican leaning Miami based seats are still Trump + 8 and Trump + 9, and they haven't been necessarily been going Dems direction. In other words, Dems winning this FL-18 would be no different than the likelyhood they win the current FL-18 (possible, but unlikely). After that, there are really no seats that scream Dem pickup opportunity barring something very unexpected.

So many 12 D seats as best which is probably the number they'd get in a fair map in a normal year.

[lfromnj]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

link for the map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9bb39061-3611-4da8-ad34-8c91a14e91c2

Might as well make the Puerto Rican seat a swing seat as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

link for the map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9bb39061-3611-4da8-ad34-8c91a14e91c2

Might as well make the Puerto Rican seat a swing seat as well.

Damn.

Sometimes swing seats can actually be useful in a gerrymander. I kinda went in with the assumption Orlando had to be 2 safe D but you proved me wrong

[ProgressiveModerate]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

While the legislature's map is better than DeSantis's by pretty much every metric, a fair map would likely have 3 dedicated Orlando seats; the current FL-07 for instance should be pushed further into Orlando rather than pushed out and instead having the 11th randomly dip in.

Furthermore, FL-27's replacement should prolly be a narrow Biden seat, there was definitely some mingling around the edges there, though tbf both the current FL-24 and FL-27 are slightly underpopulated as is.

Those are really the 2 main issues I see with the legislative map. I know everyone here has their own opinions about what should be done in north Florida, more specifically FL-05, but the more I think about it the more I realize there is no great option. The cleanest option would crack Jacksonville's black community and make no black opportunity seat. While a Duval based seat is compact, it forces FL-04 to be a bit funny looking even though from a COI standpoint it's better. And the current FL-05 stretching out to Tallahassee is the most functional but def the ugliest and questionable from a COI standpoint.

A reminder that courts haven't been as hackish as some on Atlas had thought. For instance, the liberal MN court gave the GOP a pretty good map whereas WI conservative court gave Dems a good config considering WI's unfortunate geography for Dems. Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

Also, being a bit nitpicky I'd try to make FL-14 more centered around Tampa's minority communities as currently it's a bit off center; I perfer the current FL-14 config better though overall the House's Tampa config is pretty good.

[Ritz]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

Maybe they'll pick it anyways but who knows. Doesn't seem like a guarantee considering how courts have acted in most states.

Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

How? I don't really like the notion that maximizing partisan fairness somehow counts as a "Dem gerrymander." The state constitution literally mandates it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

Maybe they'll pick it anyways but who knows. Doesn't seem like a guarantee considering how courts have acted in most states.

Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

How? I don't really like the notion that maximizing partisan fairness somehow counts as a "Dem gerrymander." The state constitution literally mandates it.

Because she’s using direct proportionality as the main standard while Ohio is a moderately lopsided state. Get much more partisanly extreme; a proportionality argument wouldn’t fly in Illinois for instance

[Ritz]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

Maybe they'll pick it anyways but who knows. Doesn't seem like a guarantee considering how courts have acted in most states.

Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

How? I don't really like the notion that maximizing partisan fairness somehow counts as a "Dem gerrymander." The state constitution literally mandates it.

Because she’s using direct proportionality as the main standard while Ohio is a moderately lopsided state. Get much more partisanly extreme; a proportionality argument wouldn’t fly in Illinois for instance

The Ohio Constitution mandates direct proportionality.

The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio.

The reason the Republican's geography excuse hasn't held up is that the plaintiffs demonstrated you can draw maps better on both standards.