2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

I actualy wonder if Al Lawson did anything to DeSantis in congress. This almost seems personal IMO. By the way can anyone create a plan that helps put more of Jacksonville in the current FL-05?

[MaxQue]

I actualy wonder if Al Lawson did anything to DeSantis in congress. This almost seems personal IMO. By the way can anyone create a plan that helps put more of Jacksonville in the current FL-05?

He's Black and DeSantis is Italian.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I actualy wonder if Al Lawson did anything to DeSantis in congress. This almost seems personal IMO. By the way can anyone create a plan that helps put more of Jacksonville in the current FL-05?

Be more specific please...I might be able to do it.

[lfromnj]

I actualy wonder if Al Lawson did anything to DeSantis in congress. This almost seems personal IMO. By the way can anyone create a plan that helps put more of Jacksonville in the current FL-05?

Be more specific please...I might be able to do it.

Al Lawson has never won a majority of the primary vote in Duval County. I am asking for a map that places more of Duval into Fl 05 such as to screw Lawson over against a stronger Duval challenger.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I actualy wonder if Al Lawson did anything to DeSantis in congress. This almost seems personal IMO. By the way can anyone create a plan that helps put more of Jacksonville in the current FL-05?

Be more specific please...I might be able to do it.

Al Lawson has never won a majority of the primary vote in Duval County. I am asking for a map that places more of Duval into Fl 05 such as to screw Lawson over against a stronger Duval challenger.

Do you desire a complete map? Or is North Florida alone enough to fulfill your needs?
This is all of North Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hope for everyone's sake that FL-05 can be reduced to just Duval in 2030 while being functionally black.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, I feel like DeSantis should've released his map first to set the tone. The release of relatively tame maps from the legislature has kind of set a tone that any map "worse" than them is gerrymandered. Heck, the House maps we're referring to as gerrymanders were prolly what many saw as the Dems best case in FL redistricting going into that. Had DeSantis released his map first, it would've set a different tone about FL redistricting and give the expectations of a gerrymandered map, and possibly might've caused the legislature to cave in a little bit to more R friendly map.

But ye, DeSantis's obsession with FL-05 is a bit overkill, especially when his plan was really sloppy in a lot of other areas of the state. My guess is that he's thinking about this more on a national level; successfully eliminating FL-05 would be a step in teh direction of weakening VRA as it pertains to majority minority districts and what triggers them, since most of the time triggers favor Dems. The more I think about it, that plan seemed to be to EXCLUSIVELY bring up the elimination of FL-05 and nothing else.

If Jacksonville goes full Atlanta this decade in terms of shifts though, FL-05 may actually end up kind becoming a Dem pack of sorts, though Tallahassee seems like it's no longer going to be enough to support a competitive FL-02 on it's own.

This going to be really interesting to watch.

[Boobs]

DeSantis clearly just needs a Snickers. Or eight.

[Pericles]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

[Oryxslayer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1492144616296038401?s=20&t=NRd5Sp...

Also, watch the House immediately reconfigure FL-07 after getting reminded this guy exists.

[compucomp]

If Jacksonville goes full Atlanta this decade in terms of shifts though, FL-05 may actually end up kind becoming a Dem pack of sorts, though Tallahassee seems like it's no longer going to be enough to support a competitive FL-02 on it's own.

I think if Jacksonville becomes like Atlanta, it will be the suburb-like parts of Jacksonville (south, east, Jacksonville Beach) that swings left, making FL-04 competitive rather than making FL-05 a pack.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Jacksonville goes full Atlanta this decade in terms of shifts though, FL-05 may actually end up kind becoming a Dem pack of sorts, though Tallahassee seems like it's no longer going to be enough to support a competitive FL-02 on it's own.

I think if Jacksonville becomes like Atlanta, it will be the suburb-like parts of Jacksonville (south, east, Jacksonville Beach) that swings left, making FL-04 competitive rather than making FL-05 a pack.

When I say become like Atlanta, I was moreso alluding to rapid black growth and gentrification, less so left shifting burbs as Jacksonville has many retirees, not as high salary buisness type jobs

Should've clarafied mb

[compucomp]

If Jacksonville goes full Atlanta this decade in terms of shifts though, FL-05 may actually end up kind becoming a Dem pack of sorts, though Tallahassee seems like it's no longer going to be enough to support a competitive FL-02 on it's own.

I think if Jacksonville becomes like Atlanta, it will be the suburb-like parts of Jacksonville (south, east, Jacksonville Beach) that swings left, making FL-04 competitive rather than making FL-05 a pack.

When I say become like Atlanta, I was moreso alluding to rapid black growth and gentrification, less so left shifting burbs as Jacksonville has many retirees, not as high salary buisness type jobs

Should've clarafied mb

There are actually a lot of high salary business types in Jacksonville on the south and east side, it's a pretty popular "nearshoring" center. I worked there for a short time (as one such person) and it felt like there was a solid population of people like me rather than being dominated by Southerners and old people. We'll see which trend wins out. FL-04 swung 7 points for Biden from 2016 while FL-05 swung 1 point.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1492144616296038401?s=20&t=NRd5Sp...

Also, watch the House immediately reconfigure FL-07 after getting reminded this guy exists.

He would lose the primary in that FL-7, he doesn't even live there

[libertpaulian]

What would FL's map look like if it had a commission like Michigan?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What would FL's map look like if it had a commission like Michigan?

Honestly not too different from the map the Senate passed.

[_.]

I hope for everyone's sake that FL-05 can be reduced to just Duval in 2030 while being functionally black.

This probably could happen already, honestly. When packing as many Black people into a Jacksonville-based district as you can, you can get to about 40% Black Population / 37% Black VAP. This would still be enough to dominate a Democratic Primary, especially as Jacksonville is racially polarized enough that such a seat would send only 55% of its votes to Democrats.

Considering the recent speedup of growth in Jacksonville and demographic trends, a majority-Black seat may be possible in 2030, and a plurality-Black seat is a near-certainty.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hope for everyone's sake that FL-05 can be reduced to just Duval in 2030 while being functionally black.

This probably could happen already, honestly. When packing as many Black people into a Jacksonville-based district as you can, you can get to about 40% Black Population / 37% Black VAP. This would still be enough to dominate a Democratic Primary, especially as Jacksonville is racially polarized enough that such a seat would send only 55% of its votes to Democrats.

Considering the recent speedup of growth in Jacksonville and demographic trends, a majority-Black seat may be possible in 2030, and a plurality-Black seat is a near-certainty.

Personally, I'm of the school of thought that has a sort of narrow ground of agreement with the Florida Governor on the issue of FL-05. Namely, I favor it being dismantled. Old FL-02 should be brought back, and "a compact as-Black-as-possible" district should be drawn in Duval.
But as it is, FL-05 in its current form looks set to stay until at least 2033.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Attempt at a fair FL map that attempts to mix things up. Florida is hard because of it's unique shape, annoying precincts, and extremely rural swamp areas next to dense cities. Overall, it's ok but I wish there were more competitive districts (map above is shaded based on 2020 Pres).

FL-17 stretching across the from the gulf to the Atlantic is not ideal, but was a consequence of shifting everything in the Miami Metro South to create a 4th Hispanic seat.

[David Hume]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority .

Interesting, so the Tallahassee district would flip easily (and I assume isn’t trend left very hard) and the two Jacksonville districts wouldn’t be dummy-manders for at least several years?

Agreed, plus he can’t really be that stupid to think he’s winning over any substantial number of voters with the laser eyeing. The majority of GOP primary voters have no idea what redistricting even does, much less be willing to vote on it 3 years later lol
 

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/02/11/florida-legislature-block-desantis-redistricted-map-proposes-inferior-map/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Breitbart commenters are definetely a bit favorable but overall this is quite behind all the media. Most GOP primary voters care more about the regular policy

Overall the Tallahasee seat is quite weird. It voted D in 2014 of all years and does have ancestral D leanings. The Dem state senator for the district covering it got 70% of the vote in a Biden +6 district but the one in 2020 did the same as Biden. Overall on an average seat for the decade level, DeSantis's map is worth it.

However IMO cutting a black seat is risky. If you don't have FL-05 it gets easier for Democrats to try to pass a true independent commision with more uniform black support. If say 25-30% of  D leaning minorites oppose independent redistricting it gets a decent bit harder to pass any such reform.

Why? FL used to be highly gerrymandered to R's interest. D leaning minorities should always favor commission than R legislatures.

[patzer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

[_.]

Even if it's probably the fairer choice, Republicans would never concentrate FL-05 in Jacksonville and risk FL-02 getting that much weaker.

This is especially true with the Tallahassee metro area being the only part of that region that's gaining population.

[Oryxslayer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

The point about mayoral elections isn’t the best point as jacksonville the city is larger then a congressional district and includes a lot of the white suburbs and wealthy beaches.