2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:01:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 37
Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida  (Read 55238 times)
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 03, 2020, 09:32:06 AM »

Florida is likely going to gain 2 seats after the census, although the latest county estimates suggest that 1 is also possible.

This is a first crack at drawing a Republican map for 29 districts:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67445556-2f17-479d-9de1-d16950ea2dd6
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e44ca7ad-b9db-4475-b085-f25089b6a48d

(The first map is drawn with 2016 block groups, the second is a tracing of the same to try to get 2016 partisan data. Obviously the population distribution might be somewhat different by 2020, by not quite to a Texan extent, so it should still have some worth - if less so in central Florida.)

My first aim was incumbent protection - every current Republican keeps their hometown and current core of their district, except for those who have already announced they're retiring in 2020. My second aim was to flip FL-07 and to keep at least one Miami-area seat that's winnable for a Cuban Republican. My third aim was to distribute the Democratic packs such that there's an outside chance of one or two of them being competitive in a wave year.

North Florida sees minimal changes. FL-05 takes a bit more of Tallahassee and has to give up some of Jacksonville to compensate, but FL-04 is more than safe enough to take the hit. This FL-05 would have been white plurality by population in 2016, although that's probably no longer true now and the Democratic primary would still be black majority.

FL-07 is the first district to see significant changes. It loses its current portions of Orange County (including Murphy's home in Winter Park) and exchanges them for reliably Republican areas of western Orange County, plus New Smyrna Beach from Volusia County (DeLand would be a cleaner but slightly less Republican alternative.)

Realistically you have got to concede two Democratic sinks in the Orlando area, so both Demmings and Soto get given safe seats. The western exurbs of Orlando are then combined with The Villages to form the new FL-29, which is probably where Webster would choose to run. Trump won by over 20 points there.

FL-11 pushes south into Pasco County and would probably be won by a Republican based in Citrus or Hernando Counties. FL-13 and FL-14 both have to shrink a bit but don't change substantially and FL-12 steps in to grab lost territory, but remains safely Republican. Clinton won the new FL-13 by 3. More aggressive line-drawing could reduce this a bit, but it really depends how much of a hit Bilirakis is willing to take and if Republicans want to risk a court throwing out their lines.

There's not a great amount of change between Tampa/Orlando and the Miami conurbation, except that FL-18 is shored up a bit by adding Okeechobee County. And for the most part Palm Beach and Broward retain fairly similar lines to those they have currently, though FL-20 gets blacker and I made the lines between FL-21 and FL-22 uglier in order to make the lighter slightly less Democratic (but still a bit of a reach even under wave conditions.)

The biggest changes are in and around Miami-Dade. The effective new seat here is actually FL-25, which combines the areas it already has in Collier and Hendry Counties with Monroe County and outlying areas of Miami-Dade. That's a big enough of a Republican base for it to be able to absorb about 200,000 heavily Democratic voters on the western edge of Broward and still remain a 51-46 Trump-Clinton district. I drew it to be give Diaz-Balart a reasonably safe Republican district where he could plausibly win the primary, but as of 2016 whites outnumbered Hispanics 47-40 (and plenty of those Hispanics aren't Cuban) so that may not quite have succeeded.

The alternative refuge for him is the new FL-28, based on Hialeah and areas to the west of Miami proper. This is an area shooting leftward at a rate of knots on the presidentially (McCain won it 64-36, Trump won it 48.7-48.3) but that hasn't entirely followed through downballot so Diaz-Balart might be able to hold it down for a couple more cycles.

My FL-26 and FL-27 aren't shooting left at quite the same rate, but Clinton won both seats by nearly 30 points so I didn't see much point in drawing convoluted lines to make one more competitive than the other.

As of 2022, that probably breaks down as 17 Republicans, 9 Democrats and three swing seats (FL-13, FL-25 and FL-28, with the former leaning Democratic and the latter two Republican.) The current delegation is 14 Republicans to 13 Democrats, so even in the worst case scenario (all the swing seats go Democratic and Murphy holds on) that would still mean a 16-13 delegation, providing a net gain of 2 seats. If instead it broke 20-9, that's a net shift of 10 seats.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2020, 11:31:54 AM »

So before I post my map, I'm going to run down a long list of prerequisites. Florida, as any resident would tell you, has numerous moving parts politically. This is especially true when it comes to redistricting. Respecting all of these moving parts, but still getting the a good GOP map is the key to redistricting in the Sunshine State.

- First, Florida has their 'fair districts amendment.' This piece constitutional of constitutional law requires first that districts be compact and ideally competitive. Now, this does not prevent Gerrymandering, take a look at the 2010 map for instance. However, the laws purpose was to prevent another case of the 2000 era tentacles. That as of now is impossible. A road connection is necessary.

- The Second part of the redistricting amendment is that minority language or ethnic groups 'cannot be denied' the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. This provision is a loophole the the compact/competitive requirements. This language is more inclusive than federal VRA requirements, and makes minority districts part of law. This provision leads to more minority districts than would usually be required, protecting both plurality seats and coalition style seats. It's wording has been interpreted as two clear plurality/coalition districts are more valuable than one 50%+ seat - if the two can be easily drawn. These tenants did lead to 2010's FL05, so it is a tool for the GOP to abuse.

      - This minority requirements are also important to remember when one considers Miami-Dade and Cuban voters. Miami has a democratic geographic lean after 2016, and Cuban GOP voters now need reinforcements from elsewhere. One simply cannot make a >80% Hispanic district in west M-D even though it would be the best possible district by GOP vote. Fajitas across the swamp, similar to south Texas and the current FL-25, are therefore almost necessary. However, road connections are also mandated by Florida law and there are only two roads heading west - one in M-D and one in Broward.

- Florida's 2010 districts went before the court in 2016. The justices that threw out the 2010 map are no longer on the bench, and those that are sitting will likely uphold whatever the GOP draws. This though means that the GOP can't simply re-draw similar districts to those that were thrown out in 2010, without adequate justification. There were three main changes in 2016: the Black part of St. Pete cannot be ripped from the rest of the city and thrown with other Dems across the bay, FL05 goes East-West rather than North-South to Orlando, and the Frankel/Deutch districts need to be North/South stacked rather than an East/West orientation that cuts the coastal communities to give republicans an opportunity. Now, look for the republicans to try and revive some of these arrangements, but in a manner that is justifiable given the 2020 circumstances when compared to 2010.

- Florida will be gaining two districts in 2020 unless Corona royally screws up the Census. Almost the entire state is growing. The 2016 distribution presented in DRA has one of these districts almost certainly to slide into the I-4 region. The second seat goes in the Miami metro under the DRA model, but it could end up on the west coast depending on the final district breakdown. The first goal of the republicans is to ensure these two seats are Red. Florida's tight partisan breakdown may make it such that adding two red seats to the map could put red precincts in short supply, limiting what can be done to the democratic seats.

- Florida's party coalitions are fragmented, and each fragment is politically powerful. The standard for each district in each region is different, and no fragment can be denied it's representation or the maps will fail in the legislature. On the republican side this is the Dixie North, the suburban I-4, the  retirees along the West Coast and in the villages, and Cubans. The democrats have to juggle AAs, Puerto Ricans along the I-4, urban Miami-Dade Hispanics, South Florida Jews, along with a growing cadre of suburban women and younger educated professionals.

- As usual, Incumbents would like to live in their district. Steube presently lives in Lakewood Ranch far outside of the district, forfeiting his influence over residency requirements.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2020, 11:38:09 AM »

So before I post my map, I'm going to run down a long list of prerequisites. Florida, as any resident would tell you, has numerous moving parts politically. This is especially true when it comes to redistricting. Respecting all of these moving parts, but still getting the a good GOP map is the key to redistricting in the Sunshine State.

- First, Florida has their 'fair districts amendment.' This piece constitutional of constitutional law requires first that districts be compact and ideally competitive. Now, this does not prevent Gerrymandering, take a look at the 2010 map for instance. However, the laws purpose was to prevent another case of the 2000 era tentacles. That as of now is impossible. A road connection is necessary.

- The Second part of the redistricting amendment is that minority language or ethnic groups 'cannot be denied' the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. This provision is a loophole the the compact/competitive requirements. This language is more inclusive than federal VRA requirements, and makes minority districts part of law. This provision leads to more minority districts than would usually be required, protecting both plurality seats and coalition style seats. It's wording has been interpreted as two clear plurality/coalition districts are more valuable than one 50%+ seat - if the two can be easily drawn. These tenants did lead to 2010's FL05, so it is a tool for the GOP to abuse.

      - This minority requirements are also important to remember when one considers Miami-Dade and Cuban voters. Miami has a democratic geographic lean after 2016, and Cuban GOP voters now need reinforcements from elsewhere. One simply cannot make a >80% Hispanic district in west M-D even though it would be the best possible district by GOP vote. Fajitas across the swamp, similar to south Texas and the current FL-25, are therefore almost necessary. However, road connections are also mandated by Florida law and there are only two roads heading west - one in M-D and one in Broward.

- Florida's 2010 districts went before the court in 2016. The justices that threw out the 2010 map are no longer on the bench, and those that are sitting will likely uphold whatever the GOP draws. This though means that the GOP can't simply re-draw similar districts to those that were thrown out in 2010, without adequate justification. There were three main changes in 2016: the Black part of St. Pete cannot be ripped from the rest of the city and thrown with other Dems across the bay, FL05 goes East-West rather than North-South to Orlando, and the Frankel/Deutch districts need to be North/South stacked rather than an East/West orientation that cuts the coastal communities to give republicans an opportunity. Now, look for the republicans to try and revive some of these arrangements, but in a manner that is justifiable given the 2020 circumstances when compared to 2010.

- Florida will be gaining two districts in 2020 unless Corona royally screws up the Census. Almost the entire state is growing. The 2016 distribution presented in DRA has one of these districts almost certainly to slide into the I-4 region. The second seat goes in the Miami metro under the DRA model, but it could end up on the west coast depending on the final district breakdown. The first goal of the republicans is to ensure these two seats are Red. Florida's tight partisan breakdown may make it such that adding two red seats to the map could put red precincts in short supply, limiting what can be done to the democratic seats.

- Florida's party coalitions are fragmented, and each fragment is politically powerful. The standard for each district in each region is different, and no fragment can be denied it's representation or the maps will fail in the legislature. On the republican side this is the Dixie North, the suburban I-4, the  retirees along the West Coast and in the villages, and Cubans. The democrats have to juggle AAs, Puerto Ricans along the I-4, urban Miami-Dade Hispanics, South Florida Jews, along with a growing cadre of suburban women and younger educated professionals.

- As usual, Incumbents would like to live in their district. Steube presently lives in Lakewood Ranch far outside of the district, forfeiting his influence over residency requirements.

Isn't it reasonably expected that the new state supreme court will just approve whatever Florida Republicans draw?  Florida does have constitutional amendments by initiative (that's how the requirements got there in the first place), however, so it would be possible to put an amendment on the ballot setting up a commission and forcing a mid-decade redraw.  That possibility should prevent them from outright flaunting the rules.     

Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2020, 11:51:57 AM »

- The Second part of the redistricting amendment is that minority language or ethnic groups 'cannot be denied' the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. This provision is a loophole the the compact/competitive requirements. This language is more inclusive than federal VRA requirements, and makes minority districts part of law. This provision leads to more minority districts than would usually be required, protecting both plurality seats and coalition style seats. It's wording has been interpreted as two clear plurality/coalition districts are more valuable than one 50%+ seat - if the two can be easily drawn. These tenants did lead to 2010's FL05, so it is a tool for the GOP to abuse.

      - This minority requirements are also important to remember when one considers Miami-Dade and Cuban voters. Miami has a democratic geographic lean after 2016, and Cuban GOP voters now need reinforcements from elsewhere. One simply cannot make a >80% Hispanic district in west M-D even though it would be the best possible district by GOP vote. Fajitas across the swamp, similar to south Texas and the current FL-25, are therefore almost necessary. However, road connections are also mandated by Florida law and there are only two roads heading west - one in M-D and one in Broward.

Given that Miami-Dade's leftward movement is at least partly down to movement within the Cuban community, does this hold up? It's no longer so clear that the Cuban community votes as anything resembling a bloc, so are they protected in the same manner? Particularly since it's not clear that unpacking a >80% Hispanic district would allow it to elect 2 Republicans, given how difficult it is to connect multiple districts to the coast.

The road connection thing probably does make it particularly important to remove Miramar from FL-20, because if it remains included then it's harder to use I-75 for a Republican district to link the Miami area and the west coast.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2020, 12:58:00 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2020, 01:08:08 PM by Oryxslayer »


Isn't it reasonably expected that the new state supreme court will just approve whatever Florida Republicans draw?  Florida does have constitutional amendments by initiative (that's how the requirements got there in the first place), however, so it would be possible to put an amendment on the ballot setting up a commission and forcing a mid-decade redraw.  That possibility should prevent them from outright flaunting the rules.    



Exactly why we should expect the GOP to work within the boundaries of the current law. They will try and get as much wiggle room within it's boundaries though, that was shown in 2010, especially on the legislative maps.

- The Second part of the redistricting amendment is that minority language or ethnic groups 'cannot be denied' the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. This provision is a loophole the the compact/competitive requirements. This language is more inclusive than federal VRA requirements, and makes minority districts part of law. This provision leads to more minority districts than would usually be required, protecting both plurality seats and coalition style seats. It's wording has been interpreted as two clear plurality/coalition districts are more valuable than one 50%+ seat - if the two can be easily drawn. These tenants did lead to 2010's FL05, so it is a tool for the GOP to abuse.

      - This minority requirements are also important to remember when one considers Miami-Dade and Cuban voters. Miami has a democratic geographic lean after 2016, and Cuban GOP voters now need reinforcements from elsewhere. One simply cannot make a >80% Hispanic district in west M-D even though it would be the best possible district by GOP vote. Fajitas across the swamp, similar to south Texas and the current FL-25, are therefore almost necessary. However, road connections are also mandated by Florida law and there are only two roads heading west - one in M-D and one in Broward.

Given that Miami-Dade's leftward movement is at least partly down to movement within the Cuban community, does this hold up? It's no longer so clear that the Cuban community votes as anything resembling a bloc, so are they protected in the same manner? Particularly since it's not clear that unpacking a >80% Hispanic district would allow it to elect 2 Republicans, given how difficult it is to connect multiple districts to the coast.

The road connection thing probably does make it particularly important to remove Miramar from FL-20, because if it remains included then it's harder to use I-75 for a Republican district to link the Miami area and the west coast.

Yeah, it's getting more blue so there is some worry long term for the GOP. The thing is, the FL legislature still has a large number of and is controlled by M-D Cuban Republicans. So they will want as many opportunities at elected Cubans as possible, though that probably involves surrendering at least Shalala's current seat to the dems. AKA long term dummymander potential for short term gains.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2020, 02:04:33 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2020, 06:15:51 PM by Oryxslayer »

This map I have had sitting around for about a month. It tries to follow most of the guidelines I outlined above.



FL01: R+20.9, 66/28.5 Trump. Nothing to see here, Gaetz's seat cannot be changed under the Florida redistricting amendment.

FL02: R+20.95 69/27.5 Trump. One of two seats in the shrinking part of Florida. It's surrounded by Red precincts, so I put Ocala city in the seat as a manner of lessening the Red hue.

FL03: R+11.1, 57/38 Trump. No idea who will succeed Yoho right now, so no idea if we need to include one town or another. Gainesville is easy to sink using the blood-red counties of Dixie.

FL04: R+14.25, 58.5/37 Trump. Even though the seat takes in more pale-blue precincts, it is still a long ways off from becoming competitive or even another SC01. The compactness has an additional benefit...

FL05: D+12.5, 61/35 Clinton. As far as I can tell, FL05 cannot be changed presently. It needs to be E/W in some fashion. I therefore stuck almost all of Leon inside the shrinking district, since Lawson is from Talle and making him an ally helps when you are the GOP. It also helps clean up the borders of FL04, FL06, FL07, and FL08.

FL06: R+11, 59/37 Trump. Reminder that the Governor comes from this part of the state, and has a special interest therefore in increasing it's power. Volusia still controls the seat, but it is now safer for the republicans.



FL07: R+5.4, 51.5/43.5 Trump. An elegant way to gerrymander away Murphy. It's nice and compact, but also less vulnerable to the demographic transformation in Seminole. As an added bonus for DeSantis, the GOP rep will likely come from the Volusia or Brevard part of the seat.

FL08: R+9.7, 57/38.5 Trump. Just general unpacking of Brevard in a way that doesn't weaken the seat but does satisfy compactness regulations.

FL09: D+14, 64/31.5 Clinton. You have to have two Orlando dem seats now, it's required both by the minority provisions in the law and just the shear volume of blue precincts. This South Orland seat is almost majority Hispanic.

FL10: D+11.3, 61/34 Clinton. The second Orlando dem seat is a coalition district controlled by the African American community - their 30% overall dominates the dem primary and dem voters win the general. University of Central Florida is in this seat to boost Hispanics in FL09.

FL11: R+10.95, 61.5/34 Trump. Could be viewed as one of the new seats since it is open, though it is the main successor to the present FL11. A seat moving to the GOP thanks to Trump trends.

FL12: R+12.85, 60.5/36 Trump. The real new seat added to I-4, though Webster is likelier to run for this than FL11. Contains Disney because the GOP would love to rep that moneymaker. The district's GOP primary is dominated by The Villages, a community becoming ever more powerful in FL GOP politics.

FL13: R+7.7, 55/40 Trump. Bilirakis's new residential seat, though he may just run for FL11. This seat is the resolution to the St. Pete problem. Instead of taking the middle of Pasco and the Hillsborough precincts, the district could remain on the coast and head up to Bayonet point and Hudson. it would still be reliably trump and getting trumpier, but the partisanship would weaken.

FL14: R+10.4, 57/39 Trump. Buchanan's successor seat, though the districts got renumbered around here on my personal plan. The lines are safer for the republicans than the present plan since Sarasota gets sunk in the district further to the south.

FL15: D+5.6, 54/41 Clinton. FL16: D+11.9, 60/35 Clinton.

So I'm going to discuss these two as a pair because that is how they function and it is a rather ingenious resolution to the St. Pete problem. The problem with St. pete stems from the 2010 map. The court told the GOP that they couldn't yank the AA part of St. Petersburg from the rest of the city unless they could get a majority AA seat in the region - like on the state senate map. This therefore leaves the Republican mappers in a bind since the more rational district St. Pete seat is now a pure south Pinellas seat. This seat would waste red precincts on a Blue-leaning competitive seat based out of an urban center. At the same time, the Hillsborough region around Tampa is getting Bluer in a way that begs to be cracked or packed. This Hillsborough problem gets worse when one considers that FL16 is bound by the minority provisions to be at least a minority coalition seat. The solution to this conundrum in my eyes is to separate Blue St. Pete from the rest of Pinellas which is increasingly becoming red. This seat crosses the many bridges and heads into Hillsborough to grab the white parts of tampa and some of her suburbs. These areas are becoming more blue with time, so best stick them where they belong. FL16 is then freed up to become a coalition district with only 40% of the seat being white, less so in the dem primary.

FL17: R+7.6, 55.5/40.5 Trump. Basically all of Polk, but with an arm to ensure Spano lives in the seat.



FL18: R+6.8, 55/42 Trump. Sinks St. Lucie in essentially the same seat as the present version only with Okeechobee.

FL19: R+8.8, 57/39 Trump. Same thing as the present FL17 only with Sarasota. Steube is far outside the present seat so he forfeits his right to residency.

FL20: R+11.1, 59/38 Trump. Cape Coral has almost enough for a whole seat in Lee county.

FL21: D+17.3, 66/31 Clinton. First Miami Metro seat is the Frankel seat. That said, she probably won't survive a primary challenge in this new minority coalition district, where only 37% of the voters overall are white. The 30% of AAs and 29% of Hispanics are going to dominate the D primary.

FL22: D+1.3, 52/45.5 Clinton. Lopping the top off of Hastings's seat was only partially done to create a new minority seat. The main reason was to create a battleground seat from a region that would usually only produce safe blue seats. Note how these seats both are stacked North/South, but the new FL22 still gets all the red coastline.

FL23: D+25.7, 75/22.5 Clinton. Hastings's new seat is entirely within Broward, but it still has 45% AA pop, so lopping the top off in Palm Beach is fine. He's not in the seat, but that's fine, he's moved before and the GOP doesn't care about dem residencies.

FL24: D+12.3, 62/35 Clinton. Safe D Broward seat for Wasserman-Schultz, though like Hastings she is outside the seat.


Edited to change colors around and improve contrast

FL25: D+34.6, 83.5/14 Clinton. Wilson has her Haitian+AA seat which packs all the blue Hispanics that could endanger the Cuban seats.

FL26: R+7.5, 52/45 Trump, 62/36 Rubio. This is the second new seat, and it's for the Cubans of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart is in the other Cuban seat. This seat has the most Hispanics of the four Miami Hispanic seats at 67%, though all four are above 60%. This one heads north into Broward and then fajitas across the everglades to Collier and other red precincts. This and the other Cuban seat bends the rules of the amendment regarding competitive seats, since the topline appears swingy but there is little chance of someone other than a Republican Cuban winning for a few years.

FL27: D+11.2, 62/34 Clinton, 54/43.5 Murphy. The present FL26 only it is now a dem pack with 63% Hispanic voters. It takes in all the scattered black voters between Homestead and Miami as well, making it safe Dem. A seat like this may not appear with the GOP preferring the two Cuban seats and this one to be more 'competitive' in appearance, but that will depend on how (not)close the FL26 race is in 2020.

FL28: D+14.6, 66.5/30.5 Clinton, 58/40 Murphy. Shalala's Miami seat only it is now more northern focused to take in all the white dems along the coast. 62% Hispanic, Shalala is also drawn outside the seat of course.

FL29: R+7, 52/45 Trump, 61/37 Rubio. Basically the same thing as FL26, only with 65.5% Hispanics. The non-hispanic bits are the keys and of course Naples, which is fajitaed to Miami via the M-D highway. FL26 grabbed the northern Cubans, this one grabs the central ones west of Miami.

TLDR: A reliably 17 Republican, 11 Dem, 1 Tossup-D Seat.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2020, 02:25:43 PM »

If Florida only goes +1, is a 28 CD map easier or harder to soft gerrymander?
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2020, 04:36:47 PM »

Does Buchanan live in Sarasota? I'm not sure he'd mind the seat you've drawn him, but that's what Wikipedia puts as his residence.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,120
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2020, 05:25:10 PM »

If Florida only goes +1, is a 28 CD map easier or harder to soft gerrymander?
generally fewer seats means easier to gerrymander.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2020, 05:37:55 PM »

If Florida only goes +1, is a 28 CD map easier or harder to soft gerrymander?
generally fewer seats means easier to gerrymander.

This is very true if you are talking about the difference in size between the upper and lower chamber in Texas (just short of 5X), but when it's a difference of +/-1 seat, there will be unique break points about how many seats need to be in a metro area or how many VRA seats are required that can distinctly advantage one side or the other.

In the case of Florida, Republicans have a delicate situation in Miami that resembles what Southern rural Dems were dealing with during 1994-2010.  I think they can make a better arrangement in South Florida the more districts there are to go around? 
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2020, 05:53:06 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2020, 06:08:02 PM by Oryxslayer »

Does Buchanan live in Sarasota? I'm not sure he'd mind the seat you've drawn him, but that's what Wikipedia puts as his residence.

My sources put him in Longboat Key, which is that little orange slip into western Sarasota along the coast. Now, if neither incumbent minds losing their base from the 2016 and emerging vulnerable in the primary, Buchanon and Steube can do something crazy. Steube lives in Lakewood Ranch in Manatee and  it would be no effort to put Buchanon in 18 via the 5K in Longboat. This would untangle the residency issue, but both would have only a tiny bit of their former base so....

If Florida only goes +1, is a 28 CD map easier or harder to soft gerrymander?
generally fewer seats means easier to gerrymander.

This is very true if you are talking about the difference in size between the upper and lower chamber in Texas (just short of 5X), but when it's a difference of +/-1 seat, there will be unique break points about how many seats need to be in a metro area or how many VRA seats are required that can distinctly advantage one side or the other.

In the case of Florida, Republicans have a delicate situation in Miami that resembles what Southern rural Dems were dealing with during 1994-2010.  I think they can make a better arrangement in South Florida the more districts there are to go around?  

I think the GOP leadership might like 28 from a mapping perspective more than 29, but they would obviously like 29 more because it's free real estate. The 28th seat goes in the I4 100%, and it probably leads to a cascade effect giving The Villages their own seat. Under 28 it would be the present 26th and 25th getting fajita stripped in the south, not the 25th and a new seat. This would weaken their partisan lean of course, but there wouldn't be any uncertainty in the south florida lines. Under 29 seats there is more likely to be another pack required down there like I drew, though that depends on 2020 and whether 2016 was truly a one-off.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2020, 04:14:44 AM »

I'm just thinking some more about your FL-15/FL-16 arrangement, and whilst it's certainly elegant, I'm wondering if it's necessary to concede two safely Dem seats in the area.

None of the surrounding seats are competitive and several of them are trending Republican, so wouldn't something like my arrangement be more electorally profitable for them, by swapping two safely Dem seats for one safe seat and one potentially competitive one?

If you wanted to be slightly more aggressive and if Bilirakis was willing to give up Palm Harbor, you could draw something like this:



That gives you a district that shouldn't fall foul of the Fair Districts Amendment, but which Clinton only won by one and which looks to be trending rightwards. If you then keep the non-Pinellas portions of my FL-12 identical, that still gives you a district that Trump won by 12, and trends around Tampa make that too close you can bolster the margin by swapping out the Pasco coast for slightly redder precincts further inland.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2020, 11:50:02 AM »

I'm just thinking some more about your FL-15/FL-16 arrangement, and whilst it's certainly elegant, I'm wondering if it's necessary to concede two safely Dem seats in the area.

None of the surrounding seats are competitive and several of them are trending Republican, so wouldn't something like my arrangement be more electorally profitable for them, by swapping two safely Dem seats for one safe seat and one potentially competitive one?

If you wanted to be slightly more aggressive and if Bilirakis was willing to give up Palm Harbor, you could draw something like this:



That gives you a district that shouldn't fall foul of the Fair Districts Amendment, but which Clinton only won by one and which looks to be trending rightwards. If you then keep the non-Pinellas portions of my FL-12 identical, that still gives you a district that Trump won by 12, and trends around Tampa make that too close you can bolster the margin by swapping out the Pasco coast for slightly redder precincts further inland.

Yes, the Peninsula is trending R pretty noticeably.  It wouldn't surprise me if Republicans won the existing Crist district in a good year.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2020, 02:26:50 PM »

I'm just thinking some more about your FL-15/FL-16 arrangement, and whilst it's certainly elegant, I'm wondering if it's necessary to concede two safely Dem seats in the area.

None of the surrounding seats are competitive and several of them are trending Republican, so wouldn't something like my arrangement be more electorally profitable for them, by swapping two safely Dem seats for one safe seat and one potentially competitive one?

If you wanted to be slightly more aggressive and if Bilirakis was willing to give up Palm Harbor, you could draw something like this:



That gives you a district that shouldn't fall foul of the Fair Districts Amendment, but which Clinton only won by one and which looks to be trending rightwards. If you then keep the non-Pinellas portions of my FL-12 identical, that still gives you a district that Trump won by 12, and trends around Tampa make that too close you can bolster the margin by swapping out the Pasco coast for slightly redder precincts further inland.

Yes, the Peninsula is trending R pretty noticeably.  It wouldn't surprise me if Republicans won the existing Crist district in a good year.

Probably not with Crist there, he seems to have always had a really strong personal brand in Pinellas County.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2020, 02:40:22 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2020, 02:53:52 PM by Oryxslayer »

I'm just thinking some more about your FL-15/FL-16 arrangement, and whilst it's certainly elegant, I'm wondering if it's necessary to concede two safely Dem seats in the area.

None of the surrounding seats are competitive and several of them are trending Republican, so wouldn't something like my arrangement be more electorally profitable for them, by swapping two safely Dem seats for one safe seat and one potentially competitive one?

If you wanted to be slightly more aggressive and if Bilirakis was willing to give up Palm Harbor, you could draw something like this:



That gives you a district that shouldn't fall foul of the Fair Districts Amendment, but which Clinton only won by one and which looks to be trending rightwards. If you then keep the non-Pinellas portions of my FL-12 identical, that still gives you a district that Trump won by 12, and trends around Tampa make that too close you can bolster the margin by swapping out the Pasco coast for slightly redder precincts further inland.

Yes, the Peninsula is trending R pretty noticeably.  It wouldn't surprise me if Republicans won the existing Crist district in a good year.

Oh absolutely. The question is you wish to waste Red precincts, swing precincts that are getting redder, and in doing so still end up with a district that voted for Clinton. If you cannot cut St. Pete city then it is to heavy of an anchor presently to be overwhelmed by the rest of Pinellas. It will also remain an anchor in the future thnks to it's minorities and urbanization, keeping the seat competitive even if the rest of the peninsula becomes lockstep R. So what the GOP would be signing up for is bi-yearly expenditures on a battleground race that from the get go would favor the democrats.

It's a peculiar situation, which is why I went into detail in the seat-by-seat breakdown. Compare this seat to FL07 or FL22 on the same map. FL07 is a D-tilting tossup seat now, though the surrounding turf gives one plenty of options to push it towards either party. Reinforcing it from the right therefore makes sense. FL22 is in the heart of the Miami metro and almost every possible configuration in the region would make the seat Safe D. So weakening the seat as much as possible than is your best possible option.

The only easy option in the Pinellas seat is to send it north up the peninsula and produce a variety of competitive seats. If the GOP desires such competition and a potential seat in exchange for potentially wasting more resources and energy, then they draw the seat. Take a look at the 2010 map for instance. There are no competitive seats drawn to be won by democrats, which is what this seat would imply. Every competitive seat was on some level drawn to get the best possible GOP numbers from a region, which sometimes meant a D-tilting Tossup such as their old FL22.

The harder options are a second D pack like shown here (it could be more aggressive and safer for the Dems) to dissuade the excesses that could just lead to disappointment. Another option is to seat the city south into Brandenton, but that just leads to ripple effects messing with incumbent residencies in the SW. It also still remains a <1% marginal seat, and is very close (and opens the theory-crafting door on) to the dem theory of a St. Pete+Brandenton+Sarasota safe Blue seat in the GOP SW coast.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2020, 03:00:15 PM »

Yes, I figure if you're signing up to try and make FL-22 competitive, then you're probably willing to target FL-13 too - and St. Petersburg would seem like a better long-term prospect, because you don't need such a specific seat arrangement to put it in play as you do in Palm Beach/Broward.

The idea of sending the seat across the bay via I-275 hadn't occurred to me, but it's an interesting idea. It's worth noting that if you go by the 2016 estimates, Pinellas outside St. Petersburg is almost exactly the right size for a congressional district. That said, I'm not convinced that it's that much easier to drown out the city by doing that than it is if you just keep it on the peninsula.
Logged
Water Hazard
Rookie
**
Posts: 68


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2020, 04:57:54 PM »

The best solution to avoid being egregious in the Tampa area is to make one whole Pinellas district using its reddest precincts and send the remainder across the bay with road connections. Something like this:



I connected with route 60 here instead of 275 because I can't split Tampa Bay with 2016 shapes but the idea is the same. FL-13 here is about Trump +10. Given that FL-14 is contiguous by road and takes out more than just the black precincts (the part of Pinellas in the district is only 29% black), I don't see why the court would have a problem with it.

It's pretty easily to deal with the remainder of Hillsborough here using Pasco and/or Polk. You could even make an R seat entirely in Hillsborough, though it probably would only have gone for Trump by high single digits. Pinellas/Hillsborough/Pasco is almost exactly 4 districts by 2016 numbers.

Similarly, I don't believe a GOP-appointed court will have a problem with getting rid of FL-05, provided the map doesn't do something like split the black areas of Jacksonville. It's easy to make all of the north Florida seats safe R, so there's no incentive for the GOP to leave it as is if they don't have to. But regardless, whether it goes away or not doesn't have much of an impact on how the rest of the map is drawn, and ultimately only the court can decide what's permissible.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2020, 05:20:58 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2020, 06:42:39 PM by Oryxslayer »


Similarly, I don't believe a GOP-appointed court will have a problem with getting rid of FL-05, provided the map doesn't do something like split the black areas of Jacksonville. It's easy to make all of the north Florida seats safe R, so there's no incentive for the GOP to leave it as is if they don't have to. But regardless, whether it goes away or not doesn't have much of an impact on how the rest of the map is drawn, and ultimately only the court can decide what's permissible.


One of the absolutes here in redistricting is the case of minority seats. The redistricting amendment is incredibly lax in most places, but it does say "Districts may not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process; or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice."

This essentially means that you cannot cut a minority seat once it is drawn. One can jostle the percentages of course, with the incentive to push minority percentages higher until the point when it's better to cut districts in twain for multiple plurality seats. FL05 itself has been an AA seat for decades - it just went to Orlando. And of course it can't return to Orlando in 2020 because that a: was illegal and returning the district would just invite true redistricting reform, b: would cut FL10 which is also now protect by the constitution. So, FL05 can't be cut, only reshuffled.

This provision of course doesn't favor any side in particular. While it benefits the dems in the north, it hurts them in along the I4 - most notably in the case of SD19. And then there are there is Miami-Dade and her peculiar Hispanics of course.
Logged
Water Hazard
Rookie
**
Posts: 68


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2020, 07:04:04 PM »


Similarly, I don't believe a GOP-appointed court will have a problem with getting rid of FL-05, provided the map doesn't do something like split the black areas of Jacksonville. It's easy to make all of the north Florida seats safe R, so there's no incentive for the GOP to leave it as is if they don't have to. But regardless, whether it goes away or not doesn't have much of an impact on how the rest of the map is drawn, and ultimately only the court can decide what's permissible.


One of the absolutes here in redistricting is the case of minority seats. The redistricting amendment is incredibly lax in most places, but it does say "Districts may not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process; or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice."

This essentially means that you cannot cut a minority seat once it is drawn. One can jostle the percentages of course, with the incentive to push minority percentages higher until the point when it's better to cut districts in twain for multiple plurality seats. FL05 itself has been an AA seat for decades - it just went to Orlando. And of course it can't return to Orlando in 2020 because that a: was illegal and returning the district would just invite true redistricting reform, b: would cut FL10 which is also now protect by the constitution. It can't be cut, only reshuffled.

This provision of course doesn't favor any side in particular. While it benefits the dems in the north, it hurts them in along the I4 - most notably in the case of SD19. And then there are there is Miami-Dade and her peculiar Hispanics of course.

Interesting. So per the redistricting amendment, would a "minority" district be defined by a majority non-white population, and are there further stipulations on how a minority district could be changed other than simply maintaining its minority-majority status? That would essentially mean that districts 5, 9, 10, 14, 20, and 23-27 are protected.

Also, is there any clarity given by Florida law regarding how Hispanic a district can be before it's considered packing? I assume if there can't be a Miami-Dade 90% Hispanic GOP seat, any GOP seat in the area not taking Monroe County has to cross the Everglades. Between those Miami constraints and trying to salvage red areas of Palm Beach and Broward, that could get interesting.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2020, 07:56:48 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2020, 08:03:06 PM by Oryxslayer »


Similarly, I don't believe a GOP-appointed court will have a problem with getting rid of FL-05, provided the map doesn't do something like split the black areas of Jacksonville. It's easy to make all of the north Florida seats safe R, so there's no incentive for the GOP to leave it as is if they don't have to. But regardless, whether it goes away or not doesn't have much of an impact on how the rest of the map is drawn, and ultimately only the court can decide what's permissible.


One of the absolutes here in redistricting is the case of minority seats. The redistricting amendment is incredibly lax in most places, but it does say "Districts may not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process; or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice."

This essentially means that you cannot cut a minority seat once it is drawn. One can jostle the percentages of course, with the incentive to push minority percentages higher until the point when it's better to cut districts in twain for multiple plurality seats. FL05 itself has been an AA seat for decades - it just went to Orlando. And of course it can't return to Orlando in 2020 because that a: was illegal and returning the district would just invite true redistricting reform, b: would cut FL10 which is also now protect by the constitution. It can't be cut, only reshuffled.

This provision of course doesn't favor any side in particular. While it benefits the dems in the north, it hurts them in along the I4 - most notably in the case of SD19. And then there are there is Miami-Dade and her peculiar Hispanics of course.

Interesting. So per the redistricting amendment, would a "minority" district be defined by a majority non-white population, and are there further stipulations on how a minority district could be changed other than simply maintaining its minority-majority status? That would essentially mean that districts 5, 9, 10, 14, 20, and 23-27 are protected.

Also, is there any clarity given by Florida law regarding how Hispanic a district can be before it's considered packing? I assume if there can't be a Miami-Dade 90% Hispanic GOP seat, any GOP seat in the area not taking Monroe County has to cross the Everglades. Between those Miami constraints and trying to salvage red areas of Palm Beach and Broward, that could get interesting.

This of course is the grey area where we get into VRA arguments and the like. The trend though has been to advance seats along this path: white plurality seats -> coalition seats -> minority plurality seats -> minority majority seats -> splitting said seat into two previous categorized districts. Now, if Florida minority voters were shrinking like in the Midwest, minority seats could be cut under the amendment, but not in a state gaining seats and minority voters.

When concerning M-D things get interesting. M-D is like a South Texas border county in that compact districts would qualify as hispanic packs by VRA standards. Usually in these circumstances the districts should have similar minority percentages, so that the map is not denying Hispanics opportunity in one seat in favor of another. Presently this has lead to each of the three seats being about 70% Hispanic.  In Texas, this leads to the fajitas to diversify the seats. This similarly occurred when I did my 29 map in regards to Naples. I tried to put the Broward conservatives into a miami seat but there are too many people living along the shoreline. Therefore, the north is somewhat off-limits for partisan reasons, so you have to go west if you are stripping.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,248
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2020, 07:10:58 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2020, 07:19:55 PM by Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 »

I made this FL map (assuming 2 new seats)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b4cf0ac9-3d24-42b1-a667-3ac8d2f9d07d

It's mostly a continuity map, but a slight R gerry

The 26th (now the 28th) moves much to the right

The 13th drops St. Petersburg which is picked up by the 16th, new seats are the 19th, as the 17th is shrunk into much of the current 16th, and a new 26th, which is a majority Hispanic seat in Miami

I tried to avoid splitting counties for partisan gain and most splits were for population equivalency purposes.

Population deviation for all seats is under 1,000 votes
Logged
Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,234
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.00, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2020, 04:22:19 AM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/b0100165-54ef-454f-b983-88cc8fa41f68
16R-3S-10D
Of the 3 swing districts, 1 leans red (Keys), 1 is a tossup (Palm Beach, yes, that's a Trump district), and 1 leans blue (St. Pete).  I tried to make the best map for Republicans without being a dummymander or baconmander.  Luckily FL has much better political geography than TX, so you can get a clean looking map while heavily packing dems.  I was also surprised I could get a Trump+1 district entirely within Palm Beach and Broward without it being ugly.  One of the Orlando dems and rep Powell likely would lose.  No other incumbents are at risk.  Overall this map isn't too bad for most dem incumbents, but definitely is a soft R gerry.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,120
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2020, 04:28:34 AM »

is FL gaining 2 new seats a certainty?
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2020, 06:07:52 AM »

I made this FL map (assuming 2 new seats)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b4cf0ac9-3d24-42b1-a667-3ac8d2f9d07d

It's mostly a continuity map, but a slight R gerry

The 26th (now the 28th) moves much to the right

The 13th drops St. Petersburg which is picked up by the 16th, new seats are the 19th, as the 17th is shrunk into much of the current 16th, and a new 26th, which is a majority Hispanic seat in Miami

I tried to avoid splitting counties for partisan gain and most splits were for population equivalency purposes.

Population deviation for all seats is under 1,000 votes

While the Florida Supreme Court is controlled by Republicans now it’s hard to see the orange and green districts in central Florida and Tampa passing muster under the redistricting amendment.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2020, 06:08:49 AM »

Idaho Conservative, I’m curious if your map cracks The Villages or keeps it in one district.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 37  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.091 seconds with 11 queries.