2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[patzer]

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

Well here's the DRA link to my map of a Dem Duval seat: https://davesredistricting.org/join/da202038-7138-4862-a7f7-06799750b83f

I was going to say it was reliably Dem but then I checked the 2016 Senate election and that was indeed Rubio+7... I'd be inclined to think that's a one off and that the seat wouldn't come even close to going R again, but I grant that you have a good point.

[Oryxslayer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

The point about mayoral elections isn’t the best point as jacksonville the city is larger then a congressional district and includes a lot of the white suburbs and wealthy beaches. 

What I am trying to say is if you are nesting a seat it in the county, RPV analysts would naturally turn to the mayoral contests as examples of local exogenous elections in situations without the best electoral fundamentals. One therefore would run algorithms using the full slate of precincts - to determine to what degree African Americans and other minorities favor the Democrats. Then an analyst would examine the selection of precincts included in the seat - not the white beach areas naturally excluded - and determine whether under RPV the exogenous African American candidate reliably wins the seat.

What we are more or less dealing with here is the inverse of the MS/AL situation where you can draw majority AA seats that vote GOP. Those wouldn't be performing by a longshot, which is why you have to aim for a higher BVAP. Jacksonville is trying to be like a northern city access seat, where the preferred candidate of minorities is guaranteed to win so one can lower the minority VAP to a level where it controls the primary, but any Jacksonville seat presently isn't guaranteed to to go Dem because of the lack of allies. The situation we are describing does exist on the State Senate maps, but these have 12 more seats and a lower necessary population, so the coalition seat isn't lacking in allies.

[BoiseBoy]

DeSantis is trying to interject again with a new map: https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1493625798972129295

[lfromnj]

Looks like a stronger 20-8 and  fixes the hispanic VAP.

[Nyvin]

Now it removes FL-5 as an AA seat AND crosses the Tampa Bay to make a Dem vote sink,  what a surprise!

[lfromnj]

Now it removes FL-5 as an AA seat AND crosses the Tampa Bay to make a Dem vote sink,  what a surprise!

That was there on the previous DeSantis map as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how black is that FL-20?

[GALeftist]

Someone needs to enable parental controls on Newman's laptop and block DRA.

[BoiseBoy]

how black is that FL-20?

There is no majority black seat in the state. 23 and 24 are black plurality. The light red Jacksonville seat is about 34% black too.

[BoiseBoy]

Comparing the old map (18-10) to the new map (20-8):

[lfromnj]

Comparing the old map (18-10) to the new map (20-8):

link?

[BoiseBoy]

Comparing the old map (18-10) to the new map (20-8):

link?

OLD:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e7f2b73f-2643-479e-b65c-7925ec36cc6a

NEW:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::84784efd-8633-4ad5-b5db-b4008bc9f651

[lfromnj]

how black is that FL-20?

There is no majority black seat in the state. 23 and 24 are black plurality. The light red Jacksonville seat is about 34% black too.

Not sure why 24 was changed although it doesn't really matter. 23 is changed because DeSantis probably wants to keep internal consistency in the map. Not having FL 20th cross into Palm Beach hurts Masts district by a few points. It's either that or DeSantis dislikes Sheila McCormick.

[GALeftist]

Anyway, I've come to the conclusion that this is mostly a stunt by DeSantis aimed at donors or something rather than a genuine partisan maneuver. I originally thought he probably just wanted a friendly House if he won in 2024 or wanted to force a fight on VRA districts which he believed would benefit the GOP nationally. However, if this were the case, you'd expect for him to shift his strategy somewhat or at least come to the table after getting some pretty obvious pushback from the legislature and the courts. If anything, though, he's been getting more obstinate and is basically picking a fight with the legislature over this, and this map is no exception.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1493737048397647876?s=20&t=hsBRnhQp4E5z...

Once again, follow the listen to the actual Tallahassee insider when it comes to inside bickering.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anyway, I've come to the conclusion that this is mostly a stunt by DeSantis aimed at donors or something rather than a genuine partisan maneuver. I originally thought he probably just wanted a friendly House if he won in 2024 or wanted to force a fight on VRA districts which he believed would benefit the GOP nationally. However, if this were the case, you'd expect for him to shift his strategy somewhat or at least come to the table after getting some pretty obvious pushback from the legislature and the courts. If anything, though, he's been getting more obstinate and is basically picking a fight with the legislature over this, and this map is no exception.

On the other hand, he has way more leverage than the State Legislature and probably thinks he can just browbeat them into submission. Also, his new map made changes that moved the general contour of the map to something resembling some of the House drafts (with the obvious exception of FL-5).

Issue is the FL-SC court doesn't seem to be too hackish given it rejected his request for them to say the FL-5 was unconditional so they might strike down the congressional map in their entirely and draw a fair map instead

[Death of a Salesman]

Anyway, I've come to the conclusion that this is mostly a stunt by DeSantis aimed at donors or something rather than a genuine partisan maneuver. I originally thought he probably just wanted a friendly House if he won in 2024 or wanted to force a fight on VRA districts which he believed would benefit the GOP nationally. However, if this were the case, you'd expect for him to shift his strategy somewhat or at least come to the table after getting some pretty obvious pushback from the legislature and the courts. If anything, though, he's been getting more obstinate and is basically picking a fight with the legislature over this, and this map is no exception.

On the other hand, he has way more leverage than the State Legislature and probably thinks he can just browbeat them into submission. Also, his new map made changes that moved the general contour of the map to something resembling some of the House drafts (with the obvious exception of FL-5).

Issue is the FL-SC court doesn't seem to be too hackish given it rejected his request for them to say the FL-5 was unconditional so they might strike down the congressional map in their entirely and draw a fair map instead

It would be helpful, for the purposes of political analysis, if you were to keep some connection to reality.

[libertpaulian]

A FAIR map would have a Jacksonville-based district, as well as a Tallahasee-to-Gainesville district.

[BoiseBoy]

Florida House plans to consider the C8011 plan tomorrow. DeSantis' map is being rightfully ignored again.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1494349967984664578?s=20&t=GRrMezfUuuH...

[Oryxslayer]

House Committee is currently debating the congressional plan. Dems are asking pointed questions about whey their analysis found Fl-10 to be unprotected. DeSantis sent the guy who created Poslby-Popper to show up are argue for him and try to provide some authority, but the committee Republicans are raking him over the coals.

[BoiseBoy]

House proposal passes subcommittee 14 to 7. Goes to full committee now.

[GALeftist]

This whole odyssey has been truly bizarre. I don't think anyone at the outset would have anticipated that an R trifecta in an important swing state like Florida would have legitimate and heated disagreements between all three branches of government.

[Skill and Chance]

This whole odyssey has been truly bizarre. I don't think anyone at the outset would have anticipated that an R trifecta in an important swing state like Florida would have legitimate and heated disagreements between all three branches of government.

Well it's a bit like the Solid South era Dem parties in that they've had a trifecta continuously since 1999 and there's a significant political machine component to the state party.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1497053769422581761

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting 15 looks like a Clinton district.

Honestly, I kind of think that they made all 3 seats extremely narrowly Trump just for the optics of being able to increase the number of Trump seats on the map, even though at the end of the day the difference between a Trump + 0.2 and Biden + 0.2 seat is meaningless.

I personally really want a FL-05 contained to just Duval so glad to see it come up. It's a black functioning seat that makes more sense from a COI standpoint and is visually better.