2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

[lfromnj]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

Because im drawing what I believe is a fair map?. I mean its not going to happen was just doing what I believe is a fair map.

[lfromnj]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

Because im drawing what I believe is a fair map?. I mean its not going to happen was just doing what I believe is a fair map.

minority districts aren't part of a fair map?

Not uncompact/breaking multiple COI's, Im against Fajitas and FL 5th and CA 21, I apply my principles equally when I draw an actually fair map.  So yes districts like MS-2nd should exist but not all.

[lfromnj]

Well they have to now? Throwing away incumbents while gaining seats?

They can shore up using Western Florida too.

[lfromnj]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

It's probably possible but they have to get Miami Beach out of the Salazar district and hop over to Naples. Even then, all three probably aren't Safe R. To give you an idea of what they're working with, this area is 3 districts of population and was DeSantis+7. Probably Trump+14 or so.

Btw there is also Rubio 2016 numbers for South Florida.  Rest of Florida for Trump seems like Desantis/Scott numbers. Although snapbacks can happen.

Still its crazy how Trump did better than Marco Rubio in Miami Dade.

[lfromnj]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

8-21 with maybe a 22nd seat in the cards if it doesn't hurt any other.
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

[lfromnj]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

7-1-21?
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Pretty sure you need 6 SEFL D districts with population growth. And no, you really can't draw a swing district. Not nearly enough R-leaning precincts.

You also have to think about incumbent residences and demands before going all out on a gerrymander.

my bad did the math wrong in SE FL. Indian river to Collier is exactly 10 districts.

[lfromnj]

I did two Republican gerrymanders of Florida a while back, using 2016 Senate Results (in Miami-Dade) and 2018 Gov. results (outside of South Florida) to simulate something close to 2020. It's obviously rather extreme, so I'm planning on drawing a "lite" version at some point.

Extreme Gerrymander

Moderate Gerrymander (except in South Florida)

I figured gaining an extra Latino seat in Miami-Dade meant that drawing an extra vote sink would be a good deal for the GOP--thus FL-28, which is safe D. The other Miami-Dade seats probably all voted Trump; FL-28 and FL-25 are Clinton-Trump seats which would be swingy, while Curbelo's seat is safe.

Did you know you can draw a another Republican seat in Broward/Palm Beach?

Ugh this sucks I need to absolve my sins

For the Jacksonville gerrymander its fairly obvious what to do if you want a clean one.
Just split it at the St.Johns river.

Your map is probably far too ugly for either one and would certainly result in a new redistricting amendment



For example this split is pretty reasonable and easily defendable and gives much better partisan numbers.

[lfromnj]

Also if announcing partisan data just for the knowledge, please use 2018 governor for Florida.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

So I guess they think the state Supreme Court will COMPLETELY disregard the Fair Districts Amendment. Unnecessarily splitting counties (no reason to split Seminole county other than to help Republicans) would go completely against that.

The current map splits Lake/Polk/Marion which are both all into 3. Overall central Florida only has a few counties but also a lot of districts. I highly doubt splitting 1 county in 3 where 3 other similarly sized counties are split into 3 is going to be that controversial. That tan district does have other county split issues perhaps but 1 specific county being split into 3 is not the biggest issue.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1397988994835574785?s=20

This dude thinks putting St.Pete with FL 14th thereby creating a 27% black district makes for a VRA violation.

[lfromnj]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

[lfromnj]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

Pretty shape of a district < Denying Blacks representation

I'm not sure GA-12 is fitting the role of "minority access" either.  It was a new seat when they drew it and only lasted two elections.   If it was it was a really terrible one.

Its not just the shape. Its the fact that Tallahassee and Jacksonville are 2 separate cities quite far apart. Just like how the old GA 12th in the 2000s originally went from Savanah to Augusta to Athens. The GOP made it drop Athens in 2006 and in 2010 they dropped Savanah .  To most people they would vote for an improved fair amendment only if the districts are ugly as those are easy to propagandize. Leaving FL 5th as is,increases the chances of a ballot measure succeeding if anything.

[lfromnj]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

For Illinois’ state legislative lines, the state constitution further requires that districts be contiguous and reasonably compact.

For Oregon:
State law requires that congressional and state legislative districts meet the following criteria:[8]

Districts must be contiguous.
Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person."

Its weird how only one is noted as an example of a hack court

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1457765309897654276

[lfromnj]

Apparently this is the first draft: https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=ce93c91276654cbcb0cb9acf2f5a39b7

Really not that aggressive.

No?
That just seems to be a "publicly" submitted map 2 days ago. Still don't see any confirmation on the website. It seems like a possible map.

[lfromnj]

These look....fine?

Too fine to be real. Making a 3rd Biden seat in Tampa is too weird.

[lfromnj]

Honestly if the Biden DOJ wanted to sue one state, they could try suing certain Florida legislative districts. The Tampa St.Pete black seat is drawn for "racial purposes" but functions as a R gerrymander. I guess some of these ridicolous VRA seats being reversed might hurt Democrats such as reversing the Ocala Gainesville state house black seat which allows Dems to potentially win 2 state house districts from Gainesville but on the net it would benefit Democrats. Unlike the TX GOP which can just say everything is a partisan gerrymander the FL GOP has no such defense.

[lfromnj]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

[lfromnj]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

Maybe it's for the point of competitiveness? A D-leaning seat in Orlando or Jacksonville would likely have more favorable Dem trends for the decade whereas most of Tampa metro has been pretty neutral.

But there's no requirements for exact partisan fairness . Overall FL's requirements are closest to CA's although county lines matter more. The FL supreme court made the GOP redraw SD01 and SD02 in the panhandle. The GOP preferred one inland and one beach seat. No partisan difference as both are super Safe R.

[lfromnj]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

Maybe it's for the point of competitiveness? A D-leaning seat in Orlando or Jacksonville would likely have more favorable Dem trends for the decade whereas most of Tampa metro has been pretty neutral.

But there's no requirements for exact partisan fairness . Overall FL's requirements are closest to CA's although county lines matter more. The FL supreme court made the GOP redraw SD01 and SD02 in the panhandle. The GOP preferred one inland and one beach seat. No partisan difference as both are super Safe R.

Ye that’s what gets sticky, it says a map can’t unduly favour one party but at the same time doesn’t offer any objective metrics. Their more take approach is probably a combination of not wanting to risk the map getting overturned as well as satisfying R incumbents, many of who may be unwilling to take in parts of blue cities and want to keep ultra-safe districts

https://mobile.twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1478914664499089408

The map is literally majority Clinton though. There's no way that somehow going 1 r 1 d in Tampa would cause even a Dem court to strike it down. Again this isn't a question of why aren't they gerrymandering but why are they drawing a Dem friendly configuration in Tampa.

[lfromnj]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

Yeah basically the only good thing about the Tampa configuration is that they are very compact.  Pretty similar to the AZ grid maps.

[lfromnj]

https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=6d9c37ef54914e5f8de3df03e568f769

Dem senator submits map that is 17-11 .

[lfromnj]

That really seems like red meat to throw to conservative voters.   It completely spits on the Fair Districts Amendment everywhere and most likely violates the VRA in regards to black voters as well.

Also I don't believe the Florida Governor holds veto power over the maps anyway.  

He doesn't hold veto power over legislative. Iirc he does over congressional